Bold Predictions for the 2nd Half of the NBA Season
You know what's fun about making bold NBA predictions?
The real-life Association can be even wilder than your imagination.
A year ago this time, who had Damian Lillard splitting from the Portland Trail Blazers to team up with Giannis Antetokounmpo? Or the Boston Celtics adding Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday? Or the Los Angeles Clippers adding both James Harden and Russell Westbrook to team with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George? Or the Oklahoma City Thunder organically growing the next Goliath?
You get the point. #ThisLeague can be unpredictable, and there's no reason to think the second half of the 2023-24 season will be any different.
To prepare for what's ahead, we're dropping five bold predictions that have a non-zero chance of coming to fruition.
The Timberwolves Won't Host a Playoff Series
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A 9-3 sprint off the starting blocks helped the Minnesota Timberwolves snag the No. 1 seed in the West in mid-November. They've had or shared pole position ever since.
The greatness shown in the Gopher State this season can't be denied. One can, however, question its sustainability.
Minnesota's monstrous (and league-leading) defense has done virtually all of the heavy lifting to this point. It can only compensate for the club's 19th-ranked offense so much, though. This defense essentially has zero margin for error amid the many offensive issues, which include a low three-point volume, turnover troubles and a dearth of second-team scorers not named Naz Reid.
Over their last 12 games, the Wolves have slipped to fourth defensively. That might sound insignificant, but Minnesota's 6-6 mark over this stretch suggests otherwise. When this defense isn't overpowering the opposition, the Wolves don't have a great counterpunch beyond hoping for a huge night from Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns.
With the rest of the West suddenly right on their heels—they're just four games ahead of the play-in picture—any stumble from here on out could prove hugely consequential. Since it's reasonable to assume consistency will continue to avoid this attack, look for Minnesota to lose its stranglehold on the top spot and wind up falling out of the conference's top four.
Jalen Brunson Is an All-Star Starter, Knicks Are a Top-4 Seed
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The New York Knicks last snagged a top-four seed in 2021. Before that, you had to time-travel back to 2013 to find the last time they finished that high.
Jalen Brunson has never been named an All-Star, let alone an All-Star starter. He maybe got squeezed for a spot last season, but he's still never suited up for the world's greatest pickup game.
Both of those things will change this season.
The 'Bockers are 5-1 with a gargantuan plus-15.9 points per 100 possessions since OG Anunoby debuted. It's a tiny sample, sure, but the defense-first swingman looked like the best non-star addition this club could make, and that's exactly how things have played out. Plus, this front office has the resources needed to add more (depth at center? bench scoring?) should it feel so inclined.
As for Brunson, he's one of only five players averaging at least 25 points, 6.0 assists and 2.5 three-pointers. Luka Dončić, Damian Lillard, Trae Young and Tyrese Maxey are the others, and among that group, only the first two have bettered Brunson's 58.9 true shooting percentage.
Clearly, Brunson has competition for this spot, as Lillard, Young, Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton and Donovan Mitchell are among the hoopers who can make credible arguments. In the end, though, Brunson's efficiency combined with the Knicks' projected ascension will get him in the starting guard group.
The Lakers Don't Land LaVine—The Warriors Do
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It'll take a desperate team to stomach the remainder of Zach LaVine's contract, which features another three years and $138 million left after this season. (His 2026-27 salary is technically a player option, but there's a less-than-zero chance he'll leave $49 million on the table.)
Is any team more desperate than the Golden State Warriors right now? They're down to 12th in the West, 23rd in defensive efficiency and 14th in offensive rating, the last of which feels impossibly low given the presence of Stephen Curry. Injuries (and suspensions) have ravaged this roster, but cracks formed in the foundation even before the absences piled up.
If the Dubs' dynasty isn't simply over, then it at least needs an external lift to get back on its feet.
"You can't keep doing the same things and expect things to miraculously change," Curry told reporters recently.
The Warriors need to trade for an impact player, but their budget is limited by a depleted asset collection. Who wants an underperforming Andrew Wiggins? How about an overpaid Klay Thompson? Any interest in an injured, 38-year-old Chris Paul? Crickets.
Golden State has to hit the bargain bin, and while LaVine's contract—which has seemingly scared off his most mentioned suitor, the Los Angeles Lakers—is enormous, his trade cost shouldn't be. Not with his salary, injury history and lack of winning.
LaVine's fit in this system could be awkward, and he certainly wouldn't solve the defensive issues, but he would fill the second-option void next to Curry and take some of the creation duties off his plate. Flank those two with stoppers like Jonathan Kuminga and Draymond Green, and you might have enough to compete on both ends. It isn't perfect, but solutions to desperate situations rarely are.
The Hawks Entertain Trae Young Trade Talks
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Since making the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, the Atlanta Hawks have suffered back-to-back first-round exits. They understandably sound ready for change.
They don't sound eager to demolish their roster, as Trae Young is "untouchable," per Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer, but they have made his backcourt mate, Dejounte Murray, "widely available."
Is there a definitive argument for making Young totally off-limits? Yes, he's a spectacular source of buckets, dimes and logo threes, but that one push to the pre-championship round marks the full extent of Atlanta's postseason success during his five-plus seasons. They've lost his 13,187 career minutes by 0.7 points per 100 possessions and have yet to field an upper-half defense (they're currently 27th on that end).
Even his offense isn't quite the weapon his gaudy point and assist totals would lead you to believe. For someone with a top-five usage rate in NBA history, he hasn't exactly wowed with pristine shooting rates (career 43.7/35.2/87.4 slash) or razor-sharp ball control (career 4.2 giveaways per game). And there hasn't been a ton of discernible growth in his off-ball game.
None of this means the Hawks must deal Young before the deadline, but the thought of ruling out that possibility entirely feels off-base. Atlanta should at least have an idea of what could happen in a Young trade in case the latest attempt to strengthen the roster around him doesn't work any better than the others.
The Lakers Win the Dejounte Murray Sweepstakes, but It Costs Them Austin Reaves
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LeBron James is doing everything in his power to test Father Time's unblemished record. Anthony Davis looks as dominant as ever.
And still, the Lakers find themselves just 23rd in offensive efficiency. They don't have nearly enough shooting, but support scoring and additional creation are on the shopping list, too.
This roster appears in dire need of reinforcements, just as it did a year ago. Last season, the front office focused on filling a number of different holes with a variety of role players. That may not cut it this time around.
L.A. could use more high-end talent, and it has eyeballs on Atlanta guard Dejounte Murray, who could spawn "more serious discourse" between the teams, per B/R's Chris Haynes. To strike a handshake agreement, though, the Lakers may have to do something they're trying to avoid: trade Austin Reaves.
Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer reported L.A. "has continued to tell teams it doesn't want to part with" Reaves, but that might be the only way to pry Murray loose. The 27-year-old, a one-time All-Defensive honoree, is averaging 20-plus points for the third consecutive campaign while posting personal-best shooting rates from the field (46.6) and from three (39.4). He's also locked into a relatively reasonable pay rate, as his four-year, $114.1 million extension kicks in next season.
The Lakers are on the hunt for "speed and quickness in the backcourt" and "someone who can serve as a point-of-attack defender," per Haynes. Murray can check off every box.
There's a move to be made here, and the front offices have a little time to figure out the particulars. Somehow, someway, they'll iron this out with Reaves and Murray serving as the centerpieces of perhaps the deadline's splashiest swap.
Stats used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference and are accurate entering games played on Thursday, Jan. 11.
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