Predicting Top Buyout Candidates Post-2024 NBA Trade Deadline
Buyout additions are generally over-romanticized in today's NBA. For every Kevin Love to the Miami Heat and Russell Westbrook to the L.A. Clippers, there are many, many more post-trade-deadline pickups who never do more than occupy space on a contender's bench or underwhelm in miniaturized roles.
Still, the exceptions underscore why buyout signings matter. It is a chance, however slight, to flesh out rotations with meaningful difference-makers who maybe, just maybe, might become longer-term mainstays.
That opportunity to get your foot in the door with someone who can contribute in some form beyond this season is likewise an undervalued part of the got-him-for-nothing lottery. Westbrook remains with the Clippers. Love is still on the Heat. Reggie Jackson didn't add much to the Denver Nuggets' championship run last year, but he's playing a more pivotal part of the rotation now. Teams and fans will always be suckers for buyout possibilities on the outside shot it leads to their own short- and/or long-term success story.
Identifying candidates who might be the next late-season-for-free gems ahead of the trade deadline is a difficult venture. The new collective bargaining agreement only complicates the process. Teams $7 million or more into the luxury tax cannot sign players off the buyout wire if their original salary exceeds the current non-taxpayer mid-level exception (in this case $12.4 million). That may winnow down the list of names who actively seek post-deadline exits if they can't latch on to an expensive contender.
We are nevertheless going on the early buyout prowl anyway.
This list will be limited to players who are making more than the minimum, who aren't guaranteed any money beyond this season and who could be bought out—which entails them conceding some of their salary—rather than outright waived. Finally, and most importantly, be sure to keep your expectations in check.
Guys closing out their first contracts don't typically stumble into buyout territory. If you want your team to take a flier on Precious Achiuwa, Killian Hayes, Tre Mann, Alexsej Pokuševski or someone else, please email your lead basketball executive. Players who have value beyond this season or as summer sign-and-trade candidates won't appear here, either. Maybe the Washington Wizards don't trade Tyus Jones. That doesn't mean they'll just give him away after Feb. 8.
Alec Burks, Detroit Pistons
1 of 10
What Alec Burks does on offense sometimes toes, perhaps crosses, the line of functional hijacking, especially inside the arc. But that sentiment is also specific to expectations.
Asking Burks to operate like a backup point guard overstretches his skill set and proclivities. He can do it in spurts amid pristine spacing. Hand him the reins for extended burns without adequate safety valves, and the offense can smash into a brick wall.
Combo-guard shot-creation and shot-making remains a wildly valuable resource, though. Burks has connected on under 36 percent of his twos, but he is nailing almost 39 percent of his pull-up triples and should down a higher share of his catch-and-fire treys on a better roster.
Flipping him for value of any kind will no doubt be the Detroit Pistons' preference. That's assuming they want to flip him at all. He still plays a ton for them. But the passage of time (and the trade deadline itself) has a way of delivering reality checks, and Monte Morris' eventual return should render him more expendable than he's considered now.
Best Potential Fits: Houston, Minnesota, Philadelphia
Danilo Gallinari, Washington Wizards
2 of 10
Danilo Gallinari entered the NBA as a 2-3. Almost 15 years later, he's more like a 5 who can steal some reps at the 4 inside the right lineups.
Age, injuries and a shifting stylistic landscape have all contributed to this transition—which, at 35, doubles as a functional decline. He is likely maxed out in his role with the Washington Wizards, someone who basically never sniffs 20 minutes per game and sometimes won't even play.
These are the realities of buyout candidates: Nobody's ideal...or even close to it. They wouldn't be buyout candidates otherwise.
Gallinari nonetheless maintains the size and upper body strength to go at the teeth of defenses. He just does it...a lot slower. He has knocked down 8-of-14 attempts on drives (57.1 percent) and gone 6-of-11 out of post-ups and will retain his ability to draw shooting fouls until he's 91 years old. Washington has even managed to get some mileage out of him in transition.
Rosters in need of an additional scoring punch and extra floor spacing that also have the defenders or secondary rim protectors to insulate Gallinari-as-your-big arrangements should have a look-see if (read: once) he hits the buyout market.
Best Possible Fits: Denver, L.A. Lakers, Memphis
Joe Harris, Detroit Pistons
3 of 10
Ankle and knee issues from years past appear to have sapped Joe Harris of both his on- and off-ball foot speed, and his sub-30-percent clip from deep this season has rendered him minimally useful to a Detroit Pistons offense that needs shooting (and overall competence). Them's the red flags you ignore when you're skulking around the buyout market.
Harris is now seasons removed from his physical and functional peak, but his outside stroke won't remain at its nadir in a better ecosystem. Teams may need to use him as a stationary 4 on defense. That's a no-go for Detroit, especially when he's not swishing triples.
Other rotations around the league won't have as many issues squeezing him in for spot minutes. And while his bill of health remains far from squeaky clean, the potential payoff on his long-range marksmanship is worth a rest-of-the-season roster spot for offenses that need an infusion of spacing—and have the room below the first luxury-tax apron to legally sign someone whose original salary lands well north of this year's bigger mid-level exception.
Best Potential Fits: Cleveland, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota
Gordon Hayward, Charlotte Hornets
4 of 10
Gordon Hayward turns 34 at the end of March and is forever on DNP - Some Kind of Lower Body Injury Watch. Even at this writing, he's sidelined with a left calf strain. But as an expiring contract, let alone someone you scoop up off the buyout heap, his potential utility easily outstrips availability concerns.
Live-dribble playmaking from someone Hayward's size remains a coveted commodity, even when it's coming a couple of notches slower than years past. His mid-range game has tapered off a bit, but he is getting to the rim more often this year and has the complementary shooting stroke to juice up his three-point volume inside an offense that uses him in a less central role.
The defensive slippage is real. Age and numerous lower-body issues can have that effect. But Hayward's 6'8" frame remains sturdy enough to be shuttled across different archetypes, making him much less of a liability or complication than most others.
Slotting him into the buyout-possibility mill does feel awkward. The Charlotte Hornets can (and if possible, should) use his expiring deal to take back longer-term deals that net them any assets. But a $31.5 million salary is steep enough to limit their options and prove prohibitive for other teams. If he's still on the Hornets' payroll after Feb. 8, their fast track nowhere suggests a buyout is possible, if not likely.
Best Potential Fits: Indiana, Memphis, New York
Doug McDermott, San Antonio Spurs
5 of 10
Keeping as much shooting as possible around Victor Wembanyama needs to be a top priority for the San Antonio Spurs, particularly if they continue to punt on more proven floor-general play. And even as Doug McDermott's accuracy has slipped over the past couple of weeks, he's still banging in more 44 percent of his triples for the season.
Yet, at 32, McDermott clearly isn't part of the Spurs' bigger picture. He's already taken a backseat to Cedi Osman and Julian Champagnie minutes, and two-way-player Dominick Barlow doesn't seem too far behind.
San Antonio can, of course, use McDermott's $13.8 million expiring salary as part of another trade. But if both he and Osman remain on the roster past the deadline, there's a solid chance at least of them gets bought out. Unless the Spurs are dead set on uber-acceleration heading into next season, they're not re-signing both (or necessarily either).
McDermott is probably the better bet to go if this is an either-or situation. He's a few years older and couple ticks slower on the defensive end. Flaws and all, though, his threat level from beyond the arc commands serious defensive attention, and he knows how to put pressure on opponents with off-ball movement.
Offenses in need of long-range volume and added half-court maneuverability should be intrigued.
Best Potential Fits: L.A. Lakers, Memphis, Toronto
Patty Mills, Atlanta Hawks
6 of 10
Patty Mills is currently registering as a non-factor for the second successive season. At age 35, this dip in playability could be irreversible. His limited impact could also be more about opportunity—about yet again suiting up for a team that has little need or incentive to lean on him.
Let's split the difference and assume the answer lies somewhere in between.
Mills isn't nearly as difficult to keep pace with on the offensive end anymore. But he can still get going around ball screens, his decision-making process remains faster than not, and defenses will always respect his touch from behind the rainbow.
Saddling MIlls with full-on floor general duties has always pushed the boundaries of what he does best. He's more like an undersized combo guard.
Guess what? Certain teams can use exactly that, even if only in finite bursts—or as a break-in-case-of-emergency safety net who has more of an impact as a high-character locker-room presence.
Best Potential Fits: Minnesota, Orlando, Phoenix
Kelly Olynyk, Utah Jazz
7 of 10
Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge isn't the type to let a good player bounce for free, and Kelly Olynyk should have suitors on the trade market. Floor-spacing combo bigs with a little on-ball joggle, quality passing instincts and reasonable nose for defensive rebounding are far from commonplace.
To that end, there's expected to be robust trade interest in Olynyk's services, and his expiring salary is palatably priced enough at $12.2 million that one or more teams should bite. But an actual trade is far from guaranteed. A lot depends on what type of money and contracts the Jazz are willing to accept back.
In the event a move doesn't materialize, Utah could just keep Olynyk and attempt to re-sign him. But even if they're out on the John Collins experiment, the roster has its fill of bigs with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Taylor "Mark My Words He's Going To Be A Two-Way Monster" Hendricks.
All of which is to say: While a Kelly Olynyk buyout isn't the likeliest outcome, it's hardly outside the realm of possibility if he remains on the Jazz roster past Feb. 8.
Best Potential Fits: New Orleans, New York, Oklahoma City
Cedi Osman, San Antonio Spurs
8 of 10
Cedi Osman is a more ambitious inclusion than meets the eye. He has given the San Antonio Spurs some useful combo forward minutes this season, and at 28, the idea that they might want to bring him back next year isn't totally blasphemous.
Nor, however, is the idea they could buy him out if his expiring $6.7 million salary isn't jettisoned ahead of Feb. 8. Developmental projects elsewhere on the roster will take mounting precedence after the deadline, and Osman is already shoehorned into a sub-20-minutes-per-game role.
Interest in him could and should be sky-high if he reaches the open market. He has moved well enough on defense this year to sponge up reps at both the 3 and 4, doesn't let the ball stick and hits juuust enough of his threes while attacking juuuust enough open spaces to level up pretty much any half-court post in which he's stationed.
Best Potential Fits: Miami, Minnesota, Orlando
Delon Wright, Washington Wizards
9 of 10
Delon Wright's scoring utility has endured a precipitous decline over the past three seasons. That's largely fine.
No team was glomming on to Wright for his bucket-getting even at his peak—though, the fall of his spot-up three is a bummer. You prize him for his pesky, point-of-attack defense, capacity to guard up and ubiquitous length, which scales to on- and off-ball disruption.
Wright is also fully capable of managing a second-string offense for fits and bursts. He is a certified ball-mover, and while his overall package wants for scoring volume, he knows how to squiggle and wriggle his way into the paint.
Whether the Washington Wizards will buy out Wright if they don't move him is debatable. They have enough guards, but a Tyus Jones trade could render him more necessary than not.
Then again, Washington figures to be even less interested in competing on the other side of the deadline. If it has no intention of re-signing him, he instantly becomes one of the two or three names on this list definitively talented enough to crack a playoff rotation.
Best Potential Fits: New York, Philadelphia, Sacramento
Thaddeus Young, Toronto Raptors
10 of 10
Thaddeus Young could technically find himself in higher demand for the Toronto Raptors. They already dealt away two players capable of operating at the 4 or 5 (Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby), Otto Porter Jr. is injured again, and the Pascal Siakam trade winds are crescendoing into a cyclone.
But Young isn't part of the Raptors rotation now. That's not changing if they embrace yet another organizational pivot. His $8 million expiring contract is, at this point, akin to a human trade exception. If Toronto doesn't need him to match salary in another deal, a buyout feels inevitable.
Bringing in Young would not amount to a fortunes-changing addition. He is 35, shrinks the floor in the half-court and has lost a few steps on defense. But teams with above-average spacing who have backup-big minutes to fill could do much worse than a 6'8", high-IQ vet who will almost never be an offensive possession-stopper.
Best Potential Fits: Denver, Memphis, Phoenix
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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