NFL MVP Race 2023-24: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 16

Could Brock Purdy go from being Mr. Irrelevant to NFL MVP? It's beginning to look like a possibility.

Purdy, who was selected by the San Francisco 49ers with the 262nd and final pick in the 2022 NFL draft, is the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP Award through 15 weeks of the 2023 season. The 23-year-old quarterback has emerged as a front-runner because of his strong play in his sophomore campaign.

However, there's still three weeks to go in the regular season. And quite a bit can change between now and then, including the NFL MVP race.

Here's a look at the latest NFL MVP odds heading into Week 16, followed by predictions for how the competition will shake out.

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Latest NFL MVP Odds

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy: -200 (bet $20 to win $10)

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: +450 (bet $10 to win $45)

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: +600

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: +1000

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: +1500

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: +1600

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: +2500

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: +2500

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: +2800

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff: +10000

Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud: +12000

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford: +12000

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: +15000

Via DraftKings Sportsbook

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Predictions

Two teams stand above the rest in the NFL standings heading into Week 16: the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens, who are both 11-3. Each has already clinched a playoff berth and has proven to be dominant all year.

That's why the NFL MVP should be a player from either the 49ers or Ravens.

There are several good candidates. San Francisco's offense has impressed thanks to the play of quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has guided his team to success.

Typically, NFL MVP has been an award given to quarterbacks. A QB has received the honor 46 times, including in each of the past 10 years.

Purdy has thrown an NFL-high 29 touchdown passes, and he ranks second in the league with 3,795 passing yards. The Iowa State product boosted his MVP case in Week 15, when he threw a season-high-tying four TD passes in a win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Jackson has thrown for 3,105 yards and 17 touchdowns while also rushing for 741 yards and five scores. It's obvious the 26-year-old is the most valuable player on the Ravens, and he has a case to be named NFL MVP.

While those two quarterbacks are the betting favorites at the moment, McCaffrey can't be counted out. He leads the NFL with 1,292 rushing yards, and no other player has run for more than 968. The 27-year-old RB has scored 20 touchdowns and recorded 68 catches for 509 yards.

At this point, it seems likely the NFL MVP will be a player from San Francisco. The 49ers have won six games in a row, and while they have a challenging Week 16 matchup (vs. the Ravens), they close out the regular season with lighter contests against the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams.

Purdy may be the betting favorite because he's a quarterback, but McCaffrey has time to win over the voters. And for the first time since 2012, a running back could be named NFL MVP.

So the prediction here is that Purdy has the slight edge to win the award. But don't be surprised if McCaffrey finishes the year strong and comes out on top.