Will Yankees' Juan Soto's Mega Contract Be Worth More Than Shohei Ohtani's Deal?

Not that they need it at this point, but here's a warning for teams that are dreaming about one day signing Juan Soto.

It's going to cost you. A lot.

The subject of what the newest New York Yankee might earn in his next deal is unavoidable following Shohei Ohtani's landscape-altering pact with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Because when a guy signs for $700 million, it's only natural to question who will benefit most directly.

If anyone is going to, well, why not a 25-year-old who's been an All-Star three times, a World Series champion once and who's generally on track to be one of the greatest hitters ever?

That's Soto, though he's not interested in talking dollars and cents right now. His focus is on acclimating to the Yankees after coming over from the San Diego Padres in last week's blockbuster trade. All contract talk can be directed elsewhere:

Soto is obviously referring to his agent, Scott Boras. And as Yankees general manager Brian Cashman seems to understand, Boras doesn't tend to do big-ticket extensions.

Indeed, Boras may be especially unlikely to do so in this case. After he collects a projected $33 million salary in 2024, Soto is ticketed for free agency next winter. Furthermore, the left-handed slugger hasn't yet had a chance to boost his value by taking regular aim at Yankee Stadium's short porch.

So, let's just assume that Soto's big payday will come in free agency and ask the big question: How much could it be?

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A Shohei Ohtani Deal Probably Isn't Happening

For starters, let's rule out Soto getting $700 million.

Heck, even Ohtani isn't really getting $700 million. With $20 million coming to him over the next 10 years followed by $680 million in the 10 years after that, the present-day value of his contract is more like $460 million.

You have to admire that Ohtani agreed to this structure partly because he wants the Dodgers to be able to build around him. But he can also live with a well-below-market salary because of what he makes in endorsements. In 2023, those reportedly totaled $40 million.

Whatever Soto is worth in endorsements, I'll guess it's nowhere near that much. And while Boras did do a contract with heavy deferments for Max Scherzer back in 2015, even that only deferred half his money and not [waves hands] 97 percent of it.

Yet even if Soto and Boras aren't going to match Ohtani's kinda-sorta fake $700 million payout, his kinda-sorta real $460 million payout is A) still an all-time high for a Major League Baseball player and B) a realistic target.

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Soto Has Already Come Close to $460 Million Once

Had things gone differently in 2022, right now we'd be talking about Ohtani having topped Soto's record-setting contract rather than Soto's chances to do so with Ohtani's deal.

Prior to trading him in August of that year, the Washington Nationals made Soto a 15-year, $440 million contract offer that notably had not a dime in deferred money. Soto rejected it, though not because the money wasn't good enough.

"I wanted to do it with the Nationals, but they just made it public," he told Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated. "I didn't like that at all. I hated it. I told them we weren't speaking anymore, because they just threw everything out there."

Had Soto accepted, the deal presumably would have started in 2023 and bought out two seasons of arbitration-eligibility and 13 free-agent years at a rate of $29 million per year.

Even if you subtract the two arb years, an identical offer for Soto in free agency would be for 13 years and $377 million. And truth be told, that's probably a little light.

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History Provides Some Useful Comps

It's not often that a superstar reaches free agency in his mid 20s, but three players will make for fair comps for Soto when he gets there: Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Back in 2000, A-Rod came off his age-24 season and signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers. After both played their age-25 seasons in 2018, Harper and Machado signed with the Philadelphia Phillies and Padres, respectively, for 13 years, $330 million and 10 years, $300 million.

For kicks and giggles, here's the present-day value of those deals:

• Rodriguez: $443.3 million
• Harper: $391 million
• Machado: $355 million

Compared to when they reached free agency, Soto blows Rodriguez, Harper and Machado away in OBP, OPS and OPS+. And if his Steamer projections for next season pan out, he's going to exit with 198 home runs and 35.0 fWAR. The homers would top the other three, while the fWAR would beat Harper and Machado and tie Rodriguez.

Pretty remarkable stuff, given that Soto only got to play 60 games in the shortened 2020 season and he doesn't squeeze much, if any, value out of his glove or legs. Yet it's not altogether surprising either.

For all the attention he rightfully attracts with his bat, let's not overlook that Soto also posts. He's played in 94 percent of all possible games since his debut in May 2018, even traveling back in time to add to his track record.

All of the above serves to say that what Soto might get as a free agent should not be underestimated. All that's left to do, then, is actually estimate his contract.

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OK, Best Guess Time

Here it is: 15 years, $520 million.

Save for maybe the Dodgers, Soto is sure to have all the usual big-money teams after him next winter. The Yankees will almost certainly be one of them, and maybe the Toronto Blue Jays will take another whack after missing him this time. Other big-spending possibilities could include the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox.

I'm figuring Soto is in line for an updated version of Harper's deal: 13 years with an inflation-adjusted average annual value of $30 million for a total of $390 million.

Soto should to do better, both because he's been a more durable, more productive hitter than Harper and because the going rate for superstars of Soto's ilk these days is more like $40 million per year.

A 13-year deal at $40 million per year works out to $520 million. If Soto and Boras are feeling generous, Boras could pull the same trick he used with Xander Bogaerts and trade more years for a lower average annual value that would benefit a team's luxury tax standing.

A 15-year deal for Soto would take him through his age-40 season, which is how far Bogaerts and Trea Turner are locked up. The AAV for a 15-year, $520 million deal, meanwhile, works out to $34.7 million. Or, precisely where Spotrac has Soto's market value.

Technically, this kind of money wouldn't put Soto anywhere near Ohtani's level. Realistically speaking, though, it would put him safely above Ohtani's level.

Which isn't so absurd, really. Soto may not be a two-way player, but it's possible that Ohtani isn't anymore either. The two of them are otherwise comparable hitters, though Soto holds at least one notable advantage: he's four years younger than the 29-year-old Ohtani.

In any case, it's not too early to get excited about Soto's potential earning power next winter. Especially, of course, if you're Juan Soto himself.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.