9 Buy-Low Trade Candidates of the 2023-24 MLB Offseason
By now, we all know the big names that have been floated around as Major League Baseball's offseason trade candidates. Juan Soto. Mike Trout. Corbin Burnes. Pete Alonso. Etc.
These...are not those players.
In fact, no one on this list appeared in the top 20 when our Joel Reuter ranked the top trade chips of the offseason about a month ago.
Rather, these are players who struggled to make any sort of positive impact in 2023, who reasonably should be able to bounce back/break out in 2024 and who could probably be acquired for considerably less than it would have cost to get them one year ago.
A.K.A. buy-low candidates.
For each of these nine players, we'll discuss why their current team is potentially looking to trade them away while also theorizing what they could bring to a new team after getting a change of scenery.
Players are presented in alphabetical order by last name.
Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants
1 of 9
2023 Stats: .207/.263/.264, 0 HR, 5 RBI, -0.4 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: .217/.296/.363, 11 HR, 26 RBI, 0.8 bWAR
Joey Bart isn't a buy-low candidate because he might bounce back to some level of excellence from the recent past, but rather because a fresh start might help the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft finally tap into his potential.
Bart was supposed to be San Francisco's successor to Buster Posey, but four years and one Patrick Bailey later, it's pretty clear that's not happening.
He hits well in the minors, though. Bart has a .623 OPS through 162 major league games, but he has a career .835 OPS in 264 minor league games. He just can't get it to translate, no matter how many times the Giants call him up and send him back down.
There was talk at the trade deadline of Bart potentially getting moved, but it didn't happen.
Perhaps now is the time to strike.
And if so, one team that would absolutely love to take a flyer on Bart is the Miami Marlins.
They got next to nothing out of their catching tandem of Jacob Stallings and Nick Fortes in 2023, and they don't have a single catcher ranked top 20 in their farm system, per MLB.com. Bart could be a real difference-maker for that franchise, and it probably wouldn't cost the Marlins all that much at this point.
Aaron Bummer, LHP, Chicago White Sox
2 of 9
2023 Stats: 58.1 IP, 6.79 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, -1.0 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: 83.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 1.1 bWAR
This past summer, the White Sox already traded away everyone who A) isn't part of their long-term plans and B) they could actually get something for.
Part A is presumably true of Aaron Bummer, a middle reliever who has one year (at $5.5 million) remaining before hitting free agency. We've got to assume Part B was the hold up keeping him on this sinking ship, even though he entered the trade deadline with a 2.37 FIP which suggested his 6.69 ERA was bound to improve.
It didn't improve, though. In fact, it got a little worse, as his walk rate went through the roof toward the end of a lost season.
Bummer is still a good strikeout artist, though, and he entered last season with a career ERA of 3.03.
And if you're a team looking for a left-handed reliever this offseason, let's just say the list of options in free agency gets uninspiring in a hurry beyond Josh Hader.
One other thing worth considering: if Bummer turns things back around in 2024, his contract does come with club options for 2025 and 2026, which tentatively could make it a bit of a long-term acquisition.
Chicago wouldn't need much in return, either. Can probably get the White Sox on the phone just by offering to take Bummer's salary off their books for 2024.
[Post-publish note: Bummer was traded to Atlanta late Thursday night for drastically more than just salary relief. The Braves sent Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake and Riley Gowens to Chicago. It sure looks like they are clearing out space on the 40-man roster to do something significant in free agency.]
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
3 of 9
2023 Stats: .219/.318/.333, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 3 SB, 0.5 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: .253/.331/.412, 26 HR, 107 RBI, 7 SB, 5.1 bWAR
The St. Louis Cardinals have more outfielders than they can possibly play on a regular basis.
It's why Tyler O'Neill has been popping up in hypothetical trades since before the 2022 season even began. But they could trade away both O'Neill and Dylan Carlson and still have all of Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Richie Palacios and Juan Yepez as options to play in the outfield.
And if they do put Carlson on the trade block with three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, there would be an awful lot of interest in the third-place finisher in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year vote.
Carlson missed nearly a month early in the 2023 campaign with an ankle injury from which he never fully recovered. So after he landed back on the IL in August with an oblique strain, they opted for surgery on the ankle, ending what was a disappointing season after just 76 games.
He had at least 30 doubles in each of the previous two seasons, as well as 18 home runs in 2021, but he managed just 14 extra-base hits this past season.
To be sure, the Cardinals aren't trying to give Carlson or any of their other outfielders away for nothing. But offer up a starting pitcher who might actually help them in 2024 and you might be able to acquire a very affordable starting outfielder for the next three years.
At the very least, the Guardians, Twins and Mariners should be asking if St. Louis would be willing to move Carlson.
Bobby Dalbec, 1B, Boston Red Sox
4 of 9
2023 Stats: .204/.264/.306, 1 HR, 1 RBI, -0.2 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: .229/.292/440, 37 HR, 117 RBI, -0.4 bWAR
For Bobby Dalbec, it's a similar argument to the one we made for Joey Bart, but without the part about being the No. 2 overall pick in a draft.
Dalbec made a great first impression in 2020, posting a .959 OPS with eight home runs in just 92 trips to the plate. He proceeded to club 25 home runs as Boston's primary first baseman the following season. But he just never found his mojo in 2022 and lost his job to Triston Casas before 2023 even began.
The man can still mash, though. In 114 games at Triple-A Worcester this season, Dalbec hit 33 home runs and stole 18 bases—after stealing 15 total bases in 550 games over the previous five seasons combined.
Dalbec did make 36 starts in right field last year for Worcester, which could be his path back to Boston. They don't need a first baseman or a DH, but they could use a corner outfielder. Though, if Ceddanne Rafaela is ready for everyday work in 2024, the Red Sox don't have much use for another outfielder, either.
What they really need is pitching, so perhaps they'll look to swap his bat for an arm on the trade block.
Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
5 of 9
2023 Stats: 87.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, -1.1 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: 308.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 8.9 bWAR
Before the 2023 season ever began, Alek Manoah was a prime candidate for some negative regression. In December, FanGraphs even dedicated an entire column to trying to explain why Steamer had him projected for a 4.09 ERA after he pitched so well in his first two years in the majors.
The gist of it is that Manoah was getting way too lucky on the BABIP front, particularly considering he was pitching for the Blue Jays, whose outfield defense was so bad in 2022 that they spent the entire offseason making sure they were better in that regard in 2023.
As a result, he had a 2.60 ERA through his first two seasons, but an xFIP north of 4.00.
But a 4.09 ERA would have been a breath of fresh air compared to how far he actually fell once both his BABIP against came back to earth and he starting walking batters at a much higher rate.
After 13 starts with a 6.36 ERA, he got sent all the way back down to the Florida Complex League to address his pitching woes. And while he was a little better when he returned a month later, he wasn't good enough to keep a spot in the rotation once Hyun-Jin Ryu was back in the mix. So they demoted him again.
Except he didn't pitch in the minors this time around. Reports came out a month after the mid-August demotion that he more or less refused to accept being optioned to Triple-A Buffalo, and was later shut down for the year with apparent knee, back and quad injuries.
Long story short, Manoah is the ultimate buy-low trade candidate. Not only is he coming off a disastrous season, but Toronto might have some added motivation to move him after the way he responded to the second demotion.
Surely the Blue Jays aren't just going to give away a 2022 Cy Young finalist with four years of team control remaining, but he might be gettable for a whole lot cheaper than he would have been 12 months ago.
Starling Marte, OF, New York Mets
6 of 9
2023 Stats: .248/.301/.324, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 24 SB, -0.8 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: .301/.365/.463, 28 HR, 118 RBI, 65 SB, 8.6 bWAR
In order for Starling Marte to actually be a buy-low trade candidate, the Mets would need to retain a good chunk of his remaining salary, as he is still owed $19.5 million in each of 2024 and 2025.
But if you're looking for an outfielder in his mid-30s who leads the majors in stolen bases since his debut in 2012 and who hit at least .275 for 10 consecutive seasons before sputtering through a rough 2023 campaign, well, we do have Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James McCann as evidence that the Mets aren't exactly opposed to the idea of paying guys to play for other teams.
It's possible 2023 was just the beginning of the end for Marte, who turned 35 in October. He missed at least 40 games for the third consecutive season, and the ball simply didn't jump off his bat like it used to. Not that he was ever a slugger, so to speak, but after averaging 11 plate appearances per extra base hit from 2018-22, that rate ballooned to 26.2 PA/XBH in 2023.
He is still one of the better baserunners in the business, though. Despite a woeful on-base percentage, Marte stole 24 bags (on 28 attempts) in just 86 games. And he still has a doggone good arm in the outfield, even if his overall defensive impact isn't what it used to be.
Cal Quantrill, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
7 of 9
2023 Stats: 99.2 IP, 5.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, -0.1 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: 336.0 IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 5.7 bWAR
We were going to put Cal Quantrill on this list regardless, but then the Guardians designated him for assignment on Tuesday, meaning they'll have seven days to either trade him, outright release him or hope that he clears waivers.
Quantrill struggled through an injury-plagued 2023 season during which he allowed 25 earned runs in the span of four starts that were surrounded by trips to the IL.
Prior to that rough patch, though, he had a respectable 4.06 ERA in nine starts. And in six starts in September, he was impressive to the tune of a 2.76 ERA. And you can see above how good he was from 2021-22.
However, between the sheer volume of rookie pitchers who emerged for Cleveland this past season and Quantrill's projected price tag of $6.6 million in what would be his next-to-last year of arbitration eligibility, it makes sense for the small-market Guardians to want to part with him. They don't particularly need him in the rotation, and he was going to be the fifth-highest paid player on the roster.
That said, it's a little shocking they DFA'd him. It's one thing to dangle a player you're willing to trade, but to just announce to the league that you're done with him can't possibly help his trade value.
Still, there's a chance they'll pull off a swap. St. Louis looks like the most obvious trade partner, as the Guardians could really use another outfielder.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 9
2023 Stats: .215/.291/.376, 13 HR, 47 RBI, -0.6 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: .228/.305/.444, 46 HR, 125 RBI, 0.4 bWAR
One year after tying both Paul Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts for the seventh-highest home run total (35) in the majors, Rowdy Tellez went through quite the slump in 2023.
Not initially, though. Through 43 games, he was batting .256 and had hit 12 home runs, putting him on pace for around 45 dingers with 100 RBI. It looked like he was going to make the leap to his first All-Star Game at 28 years old.
But he hit just one home run the rest of the way, slugging a miserable .241 over his final 62 games (with a six-week-long IL stint for a finger/forearm injury in the middle of it).
Considering he entered 2023 with a career slugging percentage of .462 over five seasons, it was the rough finish that came out of nowhere more so than the blistering hot start. We know at this point that he's not going to win any batting titles, but if he bounces back to normal, the slugger could provide a big boost for a team like the Guardians who couldn't buy a home run in 2023.
We've already been told that the Brewers are open to moving "virtually any player" on the roster, as they prepare for what will be an arduous rebuild. And that list of movable players is sure to include the first baseman entering his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Trevor Williams, RHP, Washington Nationals
9 of 9
2023 Stats: 144.1 IP, 5.55 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, -0.1 bWAR
2021-22 Stats: 180.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.7 bWAR
Trevor Williams signed a two-year, $13 million contract with the Washington Nationals last offseason, and year No. 1 of that deal was far from great.
He did make it through the season without any significant injuries, which was at least a win for a guy returning to full-time starter duties after back-to-back years logging roughly 90 total innings while bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen.
But Williams allowed an NL-high 34 home runs, most of them (21) coming off a four-seamer that averaged 89.7 MPH after seven consecutive seasons north of 91 MPH. (And that was his best pitch last season, allowing at least a .313 batting average off everything else in his six-pitch arsenal.)
That said, in 18 of his 30 starts, Williams went at least five innings, allowing four or fewer earned runs in each of those outings.
He's not going to be your ace, but he can be a solid No. 5 or serviceable No. 4 in your rotation.
Even those types of back-end starters are running close to eight figures in free agency these days, so at $7 million for one season, he might be a bargain. And with Washington not going anywhere fast, it would maybe be willing to trade Williams for cash considerations or a PTBNL just to save itself a bit of money in 2024.
