Ranking Patrick Mahomes, Other Candidates in Wide Open NFL MVP Race After Week 7
The race for the 2023 NFL MVP award is on.
While there are plenty of intriguing candidates at a plethora of positions, the reality of the situation is that this award will almost certainly go to a quarterback.
The honor has been given to a quarterback in each of the last 10 seasons and 46 of the 67 total times it has been awarded. That isn't going to change in 2023, as the position is simply too impactful in the modern game and has too many standouts playing at a high level for it to be reasonably allocated elsewhere.
The betting lines reflect this sentiment. Each of the top seven and 10 of the top 11 candidates on the DraftKings Sportsbook's MVP odds list are signal-callers.
While it's hardly surprising for quarterbacks to pace the MVP field, it's intriguing to see just how many still have a real chance at earning the hardware as we head into Week 8. The race looks wide open at this juncture, with five passers having odds of 14-1 or shorter and none better than +275.
With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the non-QB contenders and then take deeper dive into the more realistic candidates.
These MVP hopefuls have been ranked by their chances to win the award with factors like their current stats, the success of both their teams and offenses, projections on how the rest of the season will go for them and how their squad would fare if they were swapped with a replacement-level quarterback.
Non-QB Contenders
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Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+2000)
Christian McCaffrey has evolved into the NFL's most complete running back since landing with the San Francisco 49ers at last year's trade deadline.
It was the perfect pairing of scheme and player, further unlocking the immense and versatile talents that the 27-year-old displayed during his initial NFL seasons with the Carolina Panthers.
McCaffrey was instantly a fit upon arriving in the Bay Area and has only continued to dominate in 2023, racking up a league-leading 598 yards to go along with eight scores on his 125 totes. He's been a major contributor in the passing game too, tallying 26 receptions for 228 yards and three touchdowns.
Despite these impressive numbers, McCaffrey has too many talented teammates surrounding him—including one of the MVP favorites in quarterback Brock Purdy—and doesn't get the type of herculean usage it would require to win this award as a running back.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (+5000)
Tyreek Hill has become seemingly unstoppable in his second season with the Miami Dolphins. Although he's now in his eighth NFL campaign, he does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. He's leading all wideouts with 902 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on his 53 receptions.
While Hill could end up in the record book—he's on pace for a monumental 2,191 yards this year, which would make him the first wideout to breech the 2,000-yard mark and smash Calvin Johnson's previous high of 1,964 yards—it still likely wouldn't net him an MVP award without just about every quarterback on the odds list ahead of him falling off significantly.
No wide receiver has ever been named NFL MVP. Johnson failed to even earn a single vote during his record-setting 2012 season, a year in which Adrian Peterson edged out Peyton Manning to become a rare running back winner.
If Hill does set the record, it's more likely Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would take home the hardware instead.
Micah Parsons, Edge, Dallas Cowboys (+10000)
It's been nearly four decades since New York Giants star Lawrence Taylor was crowned NFL MVP for his historic 1986 season. He became just the second defensive player to earn that honor, doing so 15 years after Alan Page first accomplished it in 1971.
While Micah Parsons has been an absolute game-changer for the Dallas Cowboys, even he won't be able to end the streak of offensive players being named MVP in 2023.
The 24-year-old is the only defender with shorter odds than 150-1 to claim this award, but he's still a long shot for good reason. As great as he's been—he has 20 tackles, 11 quarterback hits, five sacks, a forced fumble and a pass deflection on the year—his Cowboys are only 4-2 and don't even rank inside the top five for total defense.
It would likely take a perfect scenario (such as Dallas fielding a historically great defense, coupled with an inept offense and the squad winning games almost solely due to Parsons' influence) for him to earn more recognition than the Defensive Player of the Year Award honors he's likely to take home at the conclusion of this season.
No. 5: Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
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DraftKings MVP Odds: +500
Jalen Hurts was the second-best quarterback and, arguably, the second-best overall player in the NFL last year. He finished as a narrow runner-up in both the MVP race and in the Super Bowl to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in only his third NFL season and was a popular candidate to at least match and potentially exceed those finishes in 2023.
Hurts is on pace to vastly surpass his 2022 mark of 3,701 passing yards while completing a higher percentage of throws. He's connected on 67.2 percent of his attempts for 1,821 yards, but despite those lofty figures, he has seen his numbers decline in several other major statistical categories.
The 25-year-old has only nine passing touchdowns on the year—putting him on a 19-score pace, off from the 22 he had last year—and his eight interceptions are already more than he had across 15 appearances in 2022. His rushing hasn't been impactful as it was over the last two seasons, with Hurts now averaging a pedestrian 3.7 yards per attempt compared to the 4.6 he posted last year and the 5.6 he averaged in 2021.
While the Eagles could still make the Super Bowl for a second straight year following their 6-1 start, their offense as a whole has taken a slight step back from last season. The team is averaging 26.6 points per game, a small drop from the 28.1 it put up in 2022, despite benefitting from a soft schedule to open the year. Philadelphia has matched up against just one team, the Miami Dolphins, that currently has a winning record.
An unsightly 20-14 defeat to the New York Jets in Week 6 showed that Hurts and co. still have some issues to iron out as they prepare for a tough upcoming slate. The Eagles will face some quality foes like the Dallas Cowboys (twice), Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers over their next six matchups.
If Hurts wasn't able to jump out to a lead in the MVP race against the likes of the Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots and Washington Commanders, it's tough to envision he'll take pole position during the brutal two-month stretch coming up.
While he's currently second on the odds list, he has a good chance to drop down significantly in the next two months and is ranked No. 5 here largely due to that.
No. 4 Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
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DraftKings MVP Odds: +650
The Baltimore Ravens must be thrilled that they were able to retain Lamar Jackson on a long-term contract extension this offseason.
After tenuous talks and a trade demand, the two sides were finally able to agree to a five-year deal worth $260 million that should keep him in Maryland through the 2027 campaign.
If his play through the first six games of that extension is any indication of what will continue to come from the quarterback, the Ravens won't have any qualms about making that investment.
Jackson has evolved as a passer in his sixth NFL season. His 71.0 completion percentage is markedly better than his previous best of 66.1 set during his MVP campaign in 2019. His 1,610 passing yards through seven games have him on 3,910-yard pace, a mark that would shatter his previous best—also set in 2019—of 3,127 yards.
Despite finishing each of the last two seasons with injuries, the 26-year-old's skills as a runner have not diminished much either. He's contributed 363 yards and five touchdowns on just 69 carries, putting him on par to tally up 882 yards and 12 scores over the course of this 17-game campaign. That would greatly exceed his previous career high of seven rushing touchdowns and would be his best yardage total since he had a second consecutive 1,000-plus yard rushing season in 2020.
Despite those impressive marks, Jackson's MVP chances are being hamstrung by his low passing touchdown totals. He has just eight scoring throws against three interceptions, putting him on pace to pass for exactly half of the 36 touchdowns he amassed in 2019 with a similar number of picks.
It's worth noting that he won his first MVP award during a year in which the Ravens went 14-2 overall and 13-2 in his starts. The 2023 edition of the team has already suffered as many defeats as that group and will likely add a few more notches to the "L" columns before the campaign concludes.
Unless Baltimore can chain together a lengthy undefeated stretch in which Jackson significantly pumps up his touchdown numbers, it will be difficult for him to surpass the players ranked ahead of him on the list for the MVP award.
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No. 3: Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
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DraftKings MVP Odds: +1400
Brock Purdy's meteoric rise from an unheralded Mr. Irrelevant draft pick buried on the San Francisco 49ers' depth chart to leading the team to an NFC Championship Game was one of the top stories of the 2022 NFL season.
The 23-year-old could add to his growing legend by becoming the league's MVP in his first full season as a starting quarterback.
Purdy picked up right where he left off before getting injured in a disappointing defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles in last year's playoffs. After going 5-0 as the starter in the regular season as a rookie, he's guided the Niners to five consecutive wins to start the 2023 season.
While he finally suffered his first non-playoff defeat in the NFL when the Cleveland Browns stunned his side in Week 6 and then took another loss in Week 7 against the Minnesota Vikings, he remains a viable MVP candidate following this down stretch.
Given San Francisco's early successes and strong chance to turn things around in the coming weeks, Purdy still deserves to be considered for the MVP award despite a stat line that isn't on par with some of the QBs ahead of him on the odds table.
His individual marks aren't poor by any means. He's completing 67.9 percent of his throws for 1,668 yards and 11 touchdowns over his first seven starts. While he had a two-interception outing in Week 7, he had only thrown a single pick before that off night against Minnesota. His ability to take care of the football is a major reason why the Niners have one of the best turnover differentials in the league while also ranking in the top-seven total offense and No. 2 scoring offense.
Although San Francisco has a fantastic offensive line and a strong ground game supporting its quarterback, Purdy's contributions are still a key piece of the puzzle. If he can continue to keep his turnovers to a minimum, pick up his touchdown pace and lead the 49ers to the league's best record, he'll have a real chance to claim some hardware.
No. 2: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
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DraftKings MVP Odds: +400
Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the league's most tantalizing talents since he was drafted No, 5 overall in 2019, but the Miami Dolphins quarterback was never able to realize that potential due to injuries and poor roster construction during his first three seasons.
That is finally changing in 2023, though, as he has managed to stay healthy and is surrounded by the best crop of talent this organization has cultivated in years.
Miami has emerged as the league's premier offense thanks to Tagovailoa's ascendance. The team is averaging a whopping 462.3 yards and 34.3 points through seven games, marks that lead the league by a wide margin. No other squad is posting more than 396.7 yards or 30.7 points per game in that span. Tagovailoa is at the helm of a passing attack that is generating an NFL-best 300 yards per game and completing a blistering 71.2 percent of his throws for 2,092 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions.
While the 25-year-old leads or is tied for a share of the league lead in several major quarterback categories—including passing yardage, completion percentage and touchdown throws—he's still behind Patrick Mahomes in the MVP race due to several factors.
A big reason for Miami's success this year is the running back platoon it unleashes with devastating effectiveness. The squad employs two of the NFL's top-six rushers, with the dynamic duo of veteran Raheem Mostert and rookie De'Von Achane accounting for an eye-popping 934 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. The Dolphins are also loaded with talent in the receiving corps, with Tyreek Hill—an MVP candidate in his own right—leading the way with his league-leading 902 yards and seven touchdowns on 53 catches.
Miami's 5-2 record also slightly trails the 6-1 Chiefs. Tagovailoa will likely need to lead his side to a stronger finish while continuing his blistering pace in order to usurp his Kansas City counterpart as league MVP.
It should make for a thrilling race that could see the favorite shift several times before the season wraps up.
No .1: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
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DraftKings MVP Odds: +275
It shouldn't come as a shock that the reigning MVP is again leading the field for this award.
Patrick Mahomes has been the gold standard for quarterback play over the last half-decade and has continued to raise his game in his seventh NFL season. He's the favorite to take home the hardware for the second year in a row and third time overall since 2018.
Through seven games, Mahomes—who also has a pair of Super Bowl MVP awards on his resume—has completed 69.5 percent of his throws for 2,017 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions. While he's not on pace to exceed his lofty yardage or touchdown marks from 2022, his current stats still extrapolate to a highly respectable 4,898 yards and 36 TDs across 17 games.
Kansas City's success with Mahomes in the lineup has been second-to-none since he became the starter in 2018. The franchise has won an incredible 70 games in that span, 12 more than the second-place team on that list. The Chiefs appear well on their way to padding that total in 2023, with Mahomes guiding them to a 6-1 record to open the year.
It's even more impressive when you consider Travis Kelce has been the only consistent pass-catcher Mahomes has worked with in his career. In the last three seasons alone, the quarterback has cycled through Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster and now Rashee Rice as his top wide receiver.
With matchups against soft defenses like the Denver Broncos and the Miami Dolphins on tap in the coming weeks, Mahomes should only pad out his stats and put himself further ahead in his quest to join greats like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre as back-to-back MVP winners.
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