9 MLB Offseason Storylines You Probably Aren't Thinking About Yet
For the Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers, MLB's 2023-24 offseason might as well still be light years away, as they are still focused on trying to win the World Series.
For nearly 90 percent of the league, though, the offseason has already begun, and there is an intense focus on what can be done over the next few weeks and months to get to a point where they are one of the four teams still playing one year from now.
There is one massive offseason storyline that all 30 teams are extremely well aware of: Shohei Ohtani hitting free agency. We've been talking about that one for a solid two calendar years at this point, as his upcoming decision will inevitably rock the baseball world like nothing we've seen since both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder left the NL Central during the 2011-12 offseason.
But there's a whole lot more than just Ohtani's next move taking place this offseason with an awful lot up in the air that you perhaps haven't been thinking about yet.
With just a couple of weeks remaining until the offseason begins in earnest, consider this your early primer on the biggest things to monitor this winter.
These nine storylines are presented in no particular order.
Will Joey Votto Play Another Season? Outside of Cincinnati?
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The Cincinnati Reds hold a $20 million club option to bring Joey Votto back in 2024, but it is already a foregone conclusion that they will pay the $7 million buyout to make him a free agent with a market value (per Spotrac) of $5.5 million.
They could elect to re-sign him even after paying the buyout, but where does he fit anymore with Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jonathan India, Nick Senzel and Spencer Steer all in the infield/DH mix?
In all likelihood, if he wants to return in 2024, the man who is now MLB's active career hits leader with Miguel Cabrera out of the picture will be swinging his bat for a team other than the Reds for the first time ever.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale recently speculated that the Toronto Blue Jays could be a good fit for Votto.
And that's going to be super weird, right?
It's not exactly Hank Aaron ending his career with the Milwaukee Brewers or Yogi Berra making a few cameo appearances as the catcher of the New York Mets after being hired as their head coach, but it'll be jarring to see this six-time All-Star suit up for someone else.
It'd be like Chipper Jones ending his career with the Angels, or Craig Biggio trying to finally get a ring with the Tampa Bay Rays. And I'm going to need the entire five-month offseason to mentally prepare myself for this impending change.
If Votto Comes Back, Who Does Retire?
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Save for Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina riding off into the sunset together, the list of players who retired last offseason wasn't exactly star-studded. The next-biggest name to call it a career was either Kurt Suzuki or Lorenzo Cain.
This year will likely be a much different story.
We already know that both Miguel Cabrera and Adam Wainwright are retiring. Cole Hamels also officially retired in August. And though the Washington Nationals refuted the reports and canceled the supposedly planned retirement ceremony for Stephen Strasburg, he may also officially retire this offseason.
In addition to that quartet, there's a long list of maybes.
Nelson Cruz turned 43 on July 1 and last appeared in a game on July 3. It's likely that he's finished with 464 career home runs.
Fellow 43-year-old Rich Hill is probably done, as well, although Bartolo Colon did pitch until he was 45, so who knows?
Zack Greinke turns 40 this month and just had a 15-loss season with a 5.06 ERA.
Joey Votto turned 40 last month and hasn't been anything close to healthy over the past two seasons.
Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto both have club options for 2024 that are all but certain to be declined. They might retire when that happens.
Maybe Evan Longoria?
Probably Brandon Crawford and Charlie Blackmon?
Possibly Andrew McCutchen?
But the three big question marks on the retirement front are Charlie Morton, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner, after those veterans had impressive 2023 campaigns.
If Morton wants to come back at 40 years young, Atlanta has a $20 million club option that it would most likely exercise. Turner turns 39 next month, but he may well decline his player option to return to Boston in hopes of getting an even bigger (possibly multiyear?) contract. And goodness knows the Dodgers would happily welcome Kershaw back if he wants to keep pitching. But those are three large variables heading into the offseason.
The Milwaukee Brewers Are at a Colossal Crossroads
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Though the franchise has never won a World Series, the Milwaukee Brewers have been a staple in the playoff race over the past seven years, making the postseason five times and winning 86 games in each of the two years that they missed the cut.
But that window of being consistently competitive is scheduled to slam shut after next season with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Adrian Houser and—if they even exercise his $11.5 million club option for 2024—Mark Canha all hitting free agency in a little over 12 months' time.
Further complicating an already difficult situation, Woodruff recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss "most or perhaps all of the upcoming season."
Could that be the catalyst that pushes Milwaukee to throw in the towel on 2024 before it even begins, trading away the likes of Burnes and Adames while they can still get good value for them?
Or does Woodruff's injury have the opposite impact, pushing the Brew Crew to get atypically aggressive in free agency in hopes of doing something with this final season with those key players?
And what about Craig Counsell, whose contract as manager of this club is set to expire on Halloween? Can they keep him from taking the Mets job? Or will his departure somewhat signal the beginning of the end for the Brewers as we presently know them?
Milwaukee is not typically a significant offseason domino to monitor, but these next couple of weeks and months will be crucial in shaping what this franchise looks like for the next decade.
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Are We Going to Keep Arguing About the Integrity of the ALDS/NLDS Format?
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The backlash to the 100-win Dodgers, 101-win Orioles and 104-win Braves all getting immediately eliminated from the postseason was swift and fierce, as fans and pundits alike questioned whether enough is being done to reward the best regular-season teams with an easier path to at least the ALCS/NLCS.
Is that still going to be a thing this offseason, or have we moved past it?
As I wrote last week, this isn't some new phenomenon sparked by the expansion to a 12-team postseason field.
In the 17 years (1995-2011) of MLB's eight-team postseason era, the wild-card team won 18 of their 34 ALDS/NLDS matchups. And when the field expanded to 10 teams with the two wild-card teams facing each other in one game to determine who gets to battle the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 seed still lost 50 percent of the time in those 18 ALDS/NLDS.
Let's face it: Baseball is just inherently more random than football or basketball. (See: 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates losing 100 games, but going 5-1 against the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers.)
Sometimes, the ace of the staff doesn't have his best breaking ball. Occasionally, a No. 9 hitter gets a hold of one for a rare home run. Sluggers get clutch bloop singles. Gold Glove winners commit throwing errors. And when it's possible for a stellar 162-game season to end in the span of three games—1.9 percent of the regular season—weird things happen.
But if we want to try to make it a little easier for the best teams to advance, here are two pretty simple fixes.
- Reseed after the Wild Card Round. The Orioles still would've had to face the Rangers, but why in the world was it No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 6 in the National League? Let the best team face the worst team, please and thank you.
- Switch from a 2-2-1 format to a 3-2 format, where the higher-seeded team hosts the first three games on consecutive days. MLB also really screwed up the National League here by having an unnecessary day off after Game 1 of the NLDS, and then another day off after Game 2 for travel. With all those idle days, Arizona was able to pitch Zac Gallen in both Game 2 of the Wild Card Round and Game 2 of the NLDS. At least give the teams with first-round byes a chance to get back into a normal baseball rhythm after making them wait six days to play their first game, while also making it more difficult for the underdogs to survive the first two rounds without a third quality starting pitcher.
Is the Great San Diego Experiment Already Coming to an End?
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After multiple decades of consistently putting together an Opening Day payroll right at or well below the league average, the San Diego Padres decided to go all-in a few years ago.
Per Cot's Contracts, San Diego had the ninth-highest Opening Day payroll in 2021, the fifth-highest in 2022 and the third-highest this year.
They committed $340 million to Fernando Tatis Jr., gave Xander Bogaerts a $280 million deal and extended Manny Machado for another $350 million. Throw in the five-plus-year contracts for Yu Darvish (6/$108M), Joe Musgrove (5/$100M) and Jake Cronenworth (7/$80M), and this franchise that had previously never had an Opening Day payroll north of $110 million spent $1.26 billion on just six players.
Yet, for all that spending, all they have to show for it is a 250-236 regular-season record and one postseason appearance that included a surprise trip to the NLCS.
San Diego finished at least 18 games back in the NL West in each of those three seasons.
And now there's talk of the Padres wanting to reduce the payroll by 20 percent to around $200 million for 2024, which sure comes across as a sign that they aren't going to be able to sign Juan Soto to a long-term deal after giving up basically the entire farm system to get him at the 2022 trade deadline.
I highly doubt the Padres trade him away during this offseason. Losing Blake Snell and Josh Hader as free agents "saves" them about $31 million compared to their 2023 payroll. They'll also likely decline their club options on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez, bringing another good chunk of change off the books. They can pay Soto his final year of arbitration salary and still stay under $200 million. They just can't do much of anything in free agency.
But after we spent all of last offseason wondering where San Diego was going to find this money to try to hang with the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees in the spending department, the Padres appear to have reached the conclusion that they can't.
While San Diego Trims Payroll, How Ridiculously Aggressive Might the Dodgers Be?
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From 2014-22, the Los Angeles Dodgers led the majors in Opening Day payroll more often than not, holding that distinction six times.
In 2023, though, they scaled back in a big way, hoping to get below the luxury tax threshold to reset that penalty clock. It won't be until later in the offseason—it was mid-January last year—that we find out for sure whether they accomplished that goal.
But after getting eliminated in the NLDS for a second consecutive year, the assumption is that they will have an extremely busy, aggressive offseason, regardless of whether they're still a repeat offender of the competitive balance tax threshold.
If they decline their $18 million club option on Lance Lynn and if Clayton Kershaw doesn't return in 2024, the only eight-figure salaries on their payroll are Mookie Betts ($30M), Freddie Freeman ($27M), Chris Taylor ($13M) and Max Muncy (a $14M club option they'll almost certainly exercise).
That means they have a ton of money to spend, which also means you can pick any big name in free agency—Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, maybe even a reunion with Cody Bellinger—and the Dodgers are going to be one of the top rumored suitors as they look to rebuild around Betts and Freeman.
Moreover, if Milwaukee is willing to trade Corbin Burnes or if Cleveland is contemplating moving Shane Bieber, you can take it to the bank that the Dodgers will be right there with their loaded farm system and an offer that will be difficult to refuse.
Beyond Betts and Freeman, this team figures to look a lot different in 2024.
We shall see whether that makes it more likely to avoid an early exit.
Will Anyone Take the Red Sox GM Job?
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It has been more than a month since the Boston Red Sox fired chief baseball operator Chaim Bloom and offered general manager Brian O'Halloran a different role as the executive vice president of baseball operations.
And finding a new GM has been a struggle.
The Boston Globe's Alex Speier reported earlier this week that the team has interviewed Twins GM Thad Levine, Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow and former Pirates GM Neal Huntington for the opening. But the longer the job stays open, the more it comes across as a marching parade of candidates who didn't even want to interview for the job.
One interesting new name in the mix is former Marlins GM Kim Ng after she left her former post earlier this week, declining her side of their mutual option for 2024. If she could get Miami to the postseason, maybe she could oversee the reconstruction of the Red Sox empire.
But even if the Red Sox are able to find an ideal candidate, they might have to outbid Steve Cohen for that person, as the Mets are also looking for a new GM after Billy Eppler resigned earlier this month.
While we wait for the who, though, the when is growing dire.
It doesn't take an experienced GM to know that the Red Sox will be declining their club options for Corey Kluber and Joely Rodríguez. However, with less than three weeks until the start of free agency, they need to get someone in that role in a hurry, lest they fumble away a critical offseason with many noteworthy starting pitchers on the free-agent market.
Would a Phillies-Rangers World Series Impact League-Wide Offseason Spending Plans?
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One of the biggest narratives from the regular season was the inability to buy a World Series ring. The Mets, Yankees and Padres combined to spend something like $880 million and they all missed the playoffs. Meanwhile, the small-market Rays and Orioles had an incredible season-long battle for the AL's No. 1 seed.
But if you thought that would inspire teams to take a more budgetary approach to free agency, a Rangers-Phillies World Series—or even an Astros-Phillies World Series—could have quite the opposite impact.
Without even factoring in the trade for Max Scherzer's $43.3 million salary, the Rangers were one of the most aggressive spenders over the past two years. They gave Corey Seager and Marcus Semien a combined $500 million right before the lockout, shocked the baseball world with their $185 million agreement with Jacob deGrom and gave $12 million-plus salaries to each of Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Martín Pérez.
Per Spotrac, Texas ended up with the fourth-highest payroll, a bit north of $250 million.
Who's fifth on that list?
The Philadelphia Phillies, who had more players with $20 million-plus salaries this season—Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos—than any other team, plus Taijuan Walker at $18 million and Aaron Nola at $16 million.
While they didn't have any of the 18 highest-paid players, the Phillies did have six of the top 50, and eight of the top 76 en route to a payroll north of $245 million. And the majority of those well-paid players have shown up in a big way in October.
Not every club has the funds necessary to emulate that type of roster-building approach, but could the impending Fall Classic inspire the Cubs, Giants and Red Sox to try to spend their way over the hump, after each checking in around $185 million and falling shy of reaching the playoffs?
Where Exactly Do the New York Mets Fit Into All of This?
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In trading away both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the New York Mets all but sent an official memo to the rest of the league announcing that they do not intend to contend in 2024.
But, come on.
Do you really think they're just going to take it easy this offseason?
With Shohei Ohtani on the market, along with several ace-level pitchers?
You don't think Steve Cohen watched Japan win the World Baseball Classic and thought it'd be pretty neat to add Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to his roster one year after landing Kodai Senga?
The Mets retained about 50 percent of the 2024 salaries of Scherzer and Verlander, as well as $8 million due to James McCann while he plays for the Orioles. But that $50 million in sunk cost could be little more than a speed bump for the billionaire owner who put together a 2023 payroll $65 million greater than that of the next-closest team.
And if they do spend big this offseason, what does that mean for the future of Pete Alonso, who is about to enter his final season of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency?
Can they afford to re-sign Alonso?
Would they consider trading him this offseason?
Long story short, the Mets are the ultimate wild card heading into the winter meetings. They might go all-in again, or they might elect to sit on the sideline this offseason and instead plan on spending big next year when the likes of Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman are scheduled to become available.
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