NFL Picks Week 7 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
The 2023 NFL season continues to be an adventure of surprises, and that has trickled down to the individual level. We've seen established stars flop and unexpected stars, like Puka Nacua, Zack Moss and Tank Dell, emerge.
While it's difficult to predict how players will perform in a given matchup, player props remain a fun and engaging way to spice up any game. The fun will continue in Week 7, which kicks off with the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night.
After examining some recent results, projected player roles and the individual matchups, we've identified four player props that we like based on the early Week 7 lines.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
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Saints running back Alvin Kamara is an established star who hasn't disappointed since returning from suspension three weeks ago. He's logged at least 84 scrimmage yards in every outing and has 23 receptions on the season.
On Thursday, Kamara will face a Jaguars defense that has been fairly stout against the run, allowing an average of only 3.6 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael should look to augment the running game with some passes out of the backfield, which will aid Kamara with this prop.
Kamara is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the over in receiving yards. He's had more than 32 receiving yards in two of his three games, even though he's averaging just 3.7 yards per reception.
It could take a high volume of targets for Kamara to reach the over, but given the matchup and New Orleans' desperate need to stay above .500, fans should see it.
Rachaad White Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
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The 3-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to host the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons in a game with serious AFC South implications. If the Bucs are going to be successful, they'll likely have to lean on Baker Mayfield and the passing attack.
The Falcons have done a solid job of defending the run this season, allowing an average of just 3.7 yards per carry. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has struggled to get much of anything going on the ground.
As a team, the Buccaneers are averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. Starting running back Rachaad White hasn't been much better than Tampa's average with 3.3 yards per rush on the season.
In this matchup, White feels like a safe bet to hit the under, which carries -125 odds. In his five games so far this season, White has only reached 50 rushing yards twice. It happened in lopsided wins over the Saints and Chicago Bears, and this is likely to be a close contest.
Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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Fans will get another fun divisional matchup when the Seattle Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals. Seattle fell to 3-2 in last Sunday's loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, a game that saw far too much offensive inefficiency.
Despite racking up 381 total yards against the Bengals, the Seahawks mustered just 13 points. Quarterback Geno Smith was held without a touchdown for the first time this season.
Smith and the Seahawks offense haven't been as hot as they were a year ago, and Seattle's signal-caller has thrown multiple touchdown passes in only one of five games. He has a solid chance to do it against Arizona, though, as the Cardinals haven't been particularly great defensively.
Arizona ranks 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 28th in total defense and 27th in points allowed. It has given up nine passing touchdowns on the season.
Expect Smith to get back into the groove against Arizona, finishing with multiple passing scores. He's currently -145 to hit the over.
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Cole Kmet Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
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Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is -115 to fall short of 34 receiving yards, a mark he's hit in four of six games this season. The caveat here is that Chicago is unlikely to have starting quarterback Justin Fields against the Las Vegas Raiders because of a thumb injury.
"Again, we still think he's doubtful for this week," head coach Matt Eberflus said on Wednesday, per NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano.
Chicago appears poised to lean on undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent against an underrated Raiders defense. Las Vegas ranks eighth in passing yards allowed and 11th in total yards allowed.
The Raiders have only allowed an opposing tight end to reach 34 yards in three of their six contests this season—and one of them, Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave, hit 34 exactly.
Bagent played for much of Week 6, and Kmet was targeted only three times, finishing with two catches fro nine yards. With D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney and Robert Tonyan Jr. also getting targets in what should be a run-first approach, expect Kmet to fall just short here.
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