Ranking the 6 Worst Fits for Shohei Ohtani Ahead of MLB Free Agency
Chatter about where Shohei Ohtani fits best has been going on for months, and will continue for however many months he's a free agent. It's going to get stale.
So, let's flip the script and ask: Where doesn't he fit?
This discussion is only interesting if it pertains to teams that have a real chance to sign the two-way star and soon-to-be two-time American League MVP, for which the cost could eclipse $500 million. To this end, odds presented by Jon Heyman of the New York Post in August remain the best the tea leaves out there.
It's hard to find fault with some teams on there. The Los Angeles Dodgers, especially, but also the Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners. If they get in on Ohtani, well, good. They should.
The less-awesome fits for the 29-year-old stand out because they're awkward or just plain bad matches for him on one or more of these fronts: payroll, roster construction, ballpark friendliness and, since Ohtani has made no secret of his desire to win, contention timeline.
Whatever personal preferences Ohtani may have are best left up to him. It's long been assumed that he prefers the West Coast and smaller markets, but taking that for granted is straying a bit too far into presumptuous territory.
In any case, let's get to ranking Ohtani's six worst fits.
6. San Diego Padres
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Why It Is a Fit
If Padres general manager A.J. Preller makes a push for Ohtani this winter, it wouldn't be for the first time. San Diego was a finalist for him when he first came over from Japan in 2017.
The Padres weren't a contender then, but they are now. Their 2020 and 2022 seasons yielded playoff berths and even their disappointing 82-80 campaign this year was largely undermined by bad luck.
It's at designated hitter where Ohtani spends most of his time, and that's where the Padres happen to have a strong need. Their DHs are coming off a year in which they ranked 19th in OPS and 20th in rWAR.
Why It's Not a Fit
The Padres are nominally contenders, but the year they just had would require Ohtani to take it on faith that they can be actual contenders in 2024 and beyond. Per multiple accounts, things were just as bad off the field as they were on it this season.
Then there's the matter of the club's payroll, which is reportedly going to get cut by about $50 million. A trade of Juan Soto could be part of that, in which case the Padres would be somewhat guilty of robbing Peter to pay Paul if they were to subsequently sign Ohtani.
If none of this scares Ohtani, how Petco Park caters to left-handed sluggers like himself should. It basically doesn't, as it ranks 22nd in home run per fly ball rate for left-handed hitters across the last two seasons.
5. New York Mets
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Why It's a Fit
If there can be no doubt of anything, it's that the Mets can afford whatever price tag gets stuck to Ohtani. Steve Cohen is the richest owner in Major League Baseball by a long shot.
As to the lineup fit, Mets designated hitters ranked third from the bottom of MLB with 0.3 rWAR despite also producing 30 home runs. A .220 average and .312 on-base percentage will have that sort of effect.
That the Mets are coming off an 87-loss season is less ideal, but whispers of them punting their next contention run to 2025 or 2026 may be overblown. Upon his introduction, new president of baseball operations David Stearns said the team would be a "true playoff contender" in 2024.
Why It's Not a Fit
The need at DH is there, but Ohtani would be another left-handed hitter in a batting order that already leans heavily to that side. It's as if the team thinks Citi Field plays friendly to lefty hitters, when in reality it's pretty much neutral.
And if the Mets' goal is indeed to compete in 2024, signing Ohtani would present at least one significant complication. He won't be able to pitch until 2025 after having elbow surgery, and the Mets need support for Kodai Senga in their rotation now.
From Blake Snell to Aaron Nola to Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Eduardo Rodriguez to Lucas Giolito to Jordan Montgomery, that's where the Mets won't be lacking in free-agent options. They might be better off going all-in on one or more of those instead.
4. New York Yankees
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Why It's a Fit
Ohtani himself called Yankee Stadium a "really fun place to play," and any bias he has in saying as much might be related to its dimensions.
It is, after all, about as good as it gets for left-handed power hitters in general and especially those with pull power. Over the last two seasons, a league-high 47.7 percent of pulled fly balls by lefty batters have ended up in the seats at Yankee Stadium.
It also happens that the Yankees need left-handed hitters like their 27th World Series title from 2009 needs a new friend. Only the Houston Astros gave less time to left-handed batters in 2023, and at least they have Yordan Álvarez.
Why It's Not a Fit
Like their crosstown rivals, the Yankees need starting pitching right now and not in 2025. And it could be hard for them to pitch Ohtani on pitching for them anyway. Heyman says he doesn't like taking the hill at Yankee Stadium, where he has a 27.00 ERA in two starts.
Another significant complication concerns Giancarlo Stanton. He and Ohtani can't both be the DH, and to regularly play Stanton in the outfield at this stage would constitute defensive malpractice.
One of them would have to go, and that one would obviously have to be Stanton. But whether it was by trade or by release, the Yankees probably couldn't avoid eating the entirety of the $116 million they still owe Stanton. The true cost of signing Ohtani, then, would be a fair deal greater than $500 million.
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3. Los Angeles Angels
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Why It's a Fit
The Angels are the only team Ohtani has known in six years as a major leaguer. Whether the two sides fit each other perhaps doesn't need further explanation than that.
But for posterity's sake, his bat arguably fits better in Anaheim than it does anywhere. His left-handedness is a nice counterweight for the right-handed sticks of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward and Logan O'Hoppe, and Angel Stadium in Anaheim is practically heaven for for lefty sluggers.
The Angels also had the pitching depth to accommodate Ohtani as part of a six-man rotation in 2023, and that's not changing any time soon. All their key hurlers are under club control through at least 2025.
Why It's Not a Fit
Ohtani was there for the last six of the Angels' eight straight losing seasons, and only two of those (80-82 records in 2017 and 2018) were even close to the break-even point. And far from hopeful, the future looks bleak indeed.
Both Trout and Rendon are past their primes, yet the Angels are still on the hook to pay Rendon $116 million through 2026 and Trout $260 million through 2030. They also have one of MLB's worst farm systems, in part because they passed up a chance to cash in trade chips this summer in favor of a well-intentioned but fruitless buy-in for a contention run.
It's quite simple, really. If Ohtani's top priority is truly to win, Anaheim is one of the last places he should want to be in the years to come.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Why It's a Fit
Like the Padres, the Giants were also a finalist for Ohtani in 2017. That was when Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans were still running the show, but Farhan Zaidi was notably with the Los Angeles Dodgers when they mounted their own pursuit of Ohtani in '17.
In any case, some needs simply transcend what the roster is actually lacking. So it is with the Giants, who just plain need a star in the wake of failed efforts to obtain Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa.
Even if they only have one playoff appearance to show for it, the Giants have been competitive in each of their last four seasons. This was true even in 2023 even though they were one of just six teams that didn't have a hitter top 25 home runs.
Why It's Not a Fit
Could it be that the Giants' persistent struggles to lure sluggers to the Bay Area has nothing to do with them and everything to do with their ballpark?
Its reputation precedes it and even new dimensions haven't made it kind to sluggers of either right-handed and left-handed vintage. For the latter, it ranks 24th in home run per fly ball rate over the last two seasons.
If that's not reason enough for Ohtani to spurn the Giants, the club's recent "competitiveness" consists of three .500-ish season on either side of a 107-win outburst in 2021 that looked like a fluke even at the time. And now, they have neither a manager in place nor an especially strong farm system to pull from.
1. Boston Red Sox
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Why It's a Fit
The Red Sox seemed to exist merely on the periphery of the race for Ohtani up until Oct. 5, when Heyman reported them to be a "real threat" to sign him.
It's possible Ohtani would be of interest simply because the Red Sox haven't had a proper superstar since Mookie Betts was shipped out of town in 2020. And despite this year's 84-loss effort, now is a good time for them to make a play for contention.
Between Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Brayan Bello and others, the Red Sox are already built on a foundation of young talent. And there's more on the way, with shortstop Marcelo Mayer headlining a prospect pool that B/R's Joel Reuter ranked as MLB's third-best in September.
Why It's Not a Fit
Let's set aside the fact that the Red Sox haven't even hired a new front office chief to replace Chaim Bloom. And, for that matter, a report from Sean McAdam of Mass Live that Ohtani apparently isn't at the top of the club's offseason priorities.
Even apart from these things, whether Ohtani is a good fit for Fenway Park or Boston's lineup are good questions. The former is only kind to lefty sluggers if they traffic in opposite-field power, and that's not Ohtani. The latter is already one of MLB's most left-handed lineups.
It's right-handed hitters the Red Sox need. Even more than that, they're another team that needs starting pitching right now. Though Boston starters crept into the top 10 of MLB in rWAR this season, nobody was ever under any illusion the club's rotation was actually good.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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