MLB World Series 2023 Odds: Breaking Down Chances of Final 4 Teams, Best Bets
With both the ALCS and NLCS now underway, which team has the best odds of winning the 2023 World Series?
How did Arizona, Houston, Philadelphia and Texas even make it to this point?
And what is it going to take for each one to now go out there and win it all?
We'll look at current* World Series odds before offering up what we feel are the most intriguing options for futures bets.
*Team World Series odds are current through the start of play Tuesday, while individual World Series MVP odds were captured Sunday afternoon.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, except for the preseason World Series odds, which were the average from several different books, captured by Sports Betting Dime on March 26.
Arizona Diamondbacks
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Preseason World Series Odds: +12000
Regular Season: 84-78, NL No. 6 seed
Playoff Run: Swept Milwaukee 2-0 in NLWC. Swept Los Angeles 3-0 in NLDS. Down 0-1 to Philadelphia in NLCS
Pre-NLCS World Series Odds: +475
Current World Series Odds: +650
Top World Series MVP Candidate: Corbin Carroll (+1900)
It's a surprise that the National League's No. 6 seed pulled off back-to-back upsets to reach the NLCS, but it was an even bigger surprise that Arizona earned the NL's No. 6 seed in the first place.
While everyone marveled at Baltimore's two-year turnaround from a 110-loss disaster to one of the best records in baseball, the Diamondbacks also made the playoffs just two years after suffering 110 losses in 2021.
Led by the rookie tandem of Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno, the Snakes arrived well ahead of schedule and sure are having fun playing with house money.
And now that they're here, why couldn't they win it all?
The bullpen was a major shortcoming for the Diamondbacks during the regular season, but it has been maybe their biggest strength thus far in October. Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald aren't exactly household names, but they've been lights out late in close games.
Similarly, Arizona wasn't a proficient home run-hitting team during the regular season, barely averaging one per game with 166 of them. But the Diamondbacks have harnessed the power of the long ball with 14 round-trippers in their first six postseason games.
Suffice it to say, hitting more than twice as many home runs as usual while consistently putting up zeroes in the eighth and ninth innings is a solid recipe for success.
Whether it's repeatable for another two best-of-seven series, we shall see. But while this biggest remaining underdog doesn't have as much MLB experience as the rest of the remaining postseason field, it will not be lacking for confidence after its hot start.
Houston Astros
2 of 5
Preseason World Series Odds: +575
Regular Season: 90-72, AL No. 2 seed
Playoff Run: Defeated Minnesota 3-1 in ALDS. Down 0-2 to Texas in ALCS
Pre-ALCS World Series Odds: +185
Current World Series Odds: +650
Top World Series MVP Candidate: Yordan Alvarez (+917)
Well, let's start out with some good news for the Astros faithful who find their team in an 0-2 hole: Including the playoffs, they've been much better on the road (53-30) than they have been at home this season (40-45).
That includes going 6-1 at Texas during the regular season. So this series isn't over yet.
And at +650, they're still in way better shape than they were after getting swept at home by Kansas City in late September. During that series, their World Series odds plummeted from +600 to +1500. (I know this because I texted a buddy that Sunday night asking him if we should place a large buy-low bet on Houston. He talked me out of it. Our friendship is questionable to recover.)
Needless to say, Houston recovered from that low point, winning five of its final six regular-season games to storm back and win the AL West via the head-to-head tiebreaker with the in-state rival it is now battling in the ALCS.
With both Atlanta and Los Angeles getting bounced in the NLDS, the Astros entered MLB's postseason semifinals as the World Series favorite, even though Philadelphia (-175 vs. Arizona in the NLCS) was the bigger favorite to actually make it to the Fall Classic. (Houston was -140 vs. Texas in the ALCS.)
In terms of total regular-season wins, this Astros team is a far cry from what it was for the majority of this run of seven consecutive ALCS. They had averaged 102.4 wins over the previous five 162-game seasons.
However, both Alex Bregman and José Abreu got out to horrendous starts for the first couple months of the season. Chas McCormick also didn't start to blossom until June. Jose Altuve missed 72 games. Yordan Alvarez missed 48 games. And they didn't acquire Justin Verlander until August 1.
No one will ever be able to comprehend how in the world Houston went a combined 2-7 against Oakland and Kansas City in September, but between the early injuries, early slumps and the big trade deadline acquisition, this team was like a diesel engine, gradually warming itself up to play its best baseball in October.
We'll see if there's enough left in the tank to climb out of this 2-0 hole, though.
Philadelphia Phillies
3 of 5
Preseason World Series Odds: +1571
Regular Season: 90-72, NL No. 4 seed
Playoff Run: Swept Miami 2-0 in NLWC. Defeated Atlanta 3-1 in NLDS. Up 1-0 on Arizona in NLCS.
Pre-NLCS World Series Odds: +210
Current World Series Odds: +145
Top World Series MVP Candidate: Bryce Harper (+833)
Over the past two seasons, the Phillies have mastered the art of definitely not peaking too early.
Last year, they started out 22-29 before firing Joe Girardi, rallying the troops and making it all the way to the World Series. This year, there was no managerial change to point to as the catalyst, but they were every bit as woeful in early June, sitting at 25-32 and darn near in dead last in the entire National League before starting to put all of the talent on the roster to good use.
But it wasn't until early August that the Phillies really took off, when Trea Turner and Bryce Harper simultaneously snapped out of their mediocre four-month starts to the year, the latter starting to get comfortable in his new home at first base. From August 5 onward, only the Atlanta Braves (338) scored more runs than the Phillies (302).
Turner and Harper have continued supplying a lot of the heavy lifting thus far in the postseason, but the real star has been the pitching staff that carried the Phillies back to contention throughout the summer.
Heading into the NLCS, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez had each made two postseason starts, putting up a combined line of 34.1 IP, 21 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 36 K. That's a 1.57 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. (And in Game 1 of the NLCS, Wheeler was masterful, save for one Geraldo Perdomo homer that just barely made it over the right-field wall.)
The bullpen had been even better on the ERA front with a mark of 1.45.
Those numbers become even more absurd when you consider four of the six games came against an Atlanta offense that treated the regular season as its personal playground.
So, with the exception of Johan Rojas going 1-for-21 at the dish in his first six postseason games, what is the weak spot that Philadelphia's remaining opponents should try to exploit?
Maybe take advantage of their aggressiveness on the basepaths, but without getting too cocky about it in the clubhouse after the game?
This feels like the most complete team still standing, and it's a bit surprising the Phillies didn't enter the NLCS as the World Series favorite.
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Texas Rangers
4 of 5
Preseason World Series Odds: +4633
Regular Season: 90-72, AL No. 5 seed
Playoff Run: Swept Tampa Bay 2-0 in ALWC. Swept Baltimore 3-0 in ALDS. Up 2-0 on Houston in the ALCS
Pre-ALCS World Series Odds: +295
Current World Series Odds: +115
Top World Series MVP Candidate: Corey Seager (+1267)
2023 was a tale of many seasons for the Texas Rangers.
After opening the campaign as a fringe candidate to make the postseason, they started out hot and ended April with a two-game lead in the AL West. But their massive free-agent pickup (Jacob deGrom) suffered a season-ending UCL injury, while their massive free-agent pickup from the previous year (Corey Seager) was on the IL with a Grade 2 hamstring strain.
As such, it wasn't until late May—after Seager returned and immediately resumed mashing the ball—that we started legitimately considering the possibility that the Rangers might be the best team in baseball.
They were able to tread water for a couple of months before the massive late-summer slump. From August 16 through September 8, they went 4-16, free-falling from "might get the AL's No. 1 seed" to "probably won't make the playoffs" in the span of three weeks.
But right when they couldn't get any lower, rocking out to "Higher" evidently turned their season back around, as the Rangers embraced with arms wide open the post-grunge stylings of Creed and started to win again.
When this team was firing on all cylinders in the first two months of the season, trying to find a weakness in the lineup was like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Through June 4, Texas was averaging 6.48 runs per game and had by far the best run differential in the majors.
And that relentless offense has returned in a big way. Rookies Evan Carter and Josh Jung have come on strong to lead the charge, while even No. 9 hitter Leody Taveras has a .483 on-base percentage of his own in the postseason after reaching three more times in the Game 2 win over Houston.
Making matters worse for the competition, Texas doesn't need many runs with Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery putting zero after zero on the scoreboard.
Those co-aces of the rotation have been magnificent. And with Max Scherzer and Jon Gray returning from the IL for the ALCS, an already hot team added a few more logs to its fire.
Best Bets
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Nathan Eovaldi to win World Series MVP (Not Listed)
Prior to Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday, there were 13 players with World Series MVP odds of +3000 or better. The only pitcher of the bunch was Justin Verlander at +3000.
That's not because the remaining teams are lacking in quality starting pitching. Far from it. All four teams have quite the one-two punch of co-aces. There are almost too many good starting pitchers for there to be much separation among them for betting purposes.
However, the pitchers weren't given great odds because they simply don't win many WS MVP trophies.
Over the past 14 World Series, only two pitchers have been named MVP—Madison Bumgarner in 2014; Stephen Strasburg in 2019.
But Nathan Eovaldi could be gearing up to buck that trend with the way he has pitched for the Rangers thus far.
"Big Game Nate" allowed one earned run in Game 2 against Tampa Bay, one earned run in Game 3 against Baltimore and three earned runs in Game 2 against Houston, getting both the win and a quality start in each of his three starts.
If the Rangers ultimately make the World Series, Eovaldi wiggling out of the bases-loaded, no-outs jam in the fifth inning Monday night will be pointed to as a big reason why. And while performance prior to the World Series technically isn't supposed to factor into the World Series MVP voting, let's just say that his momentum thus far won't hurt his chances.
Philadelphia Phillies Over Texas Rangers (+215)
To get any sort of worthwhile ROI at this stage in the game, you're going to need to go the "straight forecast" route as opposed to simply picking the champion. That means an effective parlay of picking the ALCS champion, the NLCS champion and the victor of the resultant World Series.
Even at that, you're going to need to take a risk on one of your World Series teams if you want to really move the odds in your favor.
For instance, Philadelphia over Houston was +425 two days ago, but that has spiked to an enticing +1100 with the Astros in quite the hole to open the ALCS.
But let's play it reasonably safe and go with Philadelphia over Texas in the projected battle between what are now the heavy favorites to reach the World Series.
It would be the NL's No. 4 seed against the AL's No. 5 seed, but it would also be MLB's fourth-highest payroll going up against MLB's fifth-highest payroll in a wild-card showdown for the ages. And if it happens, we'll go with the Phillies, whose highest-paid stars have been sensational this October.
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