8 Overhyped Players at the Start of the 2023-24 NHL Season
Let's get one thing out of the way up front.
The guys in the NHL are good. Whether they're scoring leaders or fourth-line grinders, anyone capable of reaching the sport's most elite league is a genuine talent.
There are some guys, though, who blur the line. They still warrant respect but sometimes it seems the pedestal they've been assigned is a smidge higher than the one they've earned.
The B/R hockey team tasked itself with compiling a list of those overhyped players, looking at their salaries, their reputations vs. actual performance, and sometimes to good old-fashioned eye test while whittling the collection down to a final "elite" eight, listed in alphabetical order.
Take a look at what we came up with and drop a thought in the comments.
Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders
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Let's go ahead and get the discussion going right away, shall we?
Do a simple Google search with the terms "Mathew Barzal" and "overhyped" and you'll find no shortage of opinions on the issue, with plenty of rationalizations in either direction.
Is he overrated due to a $9.15 million salary that kicks in this year after only one season above the point-per-game threshold, or have his numbers been smothered by the defense-first style he's played under and the overall lack of talent with which he's been surrounded?
To us, the needle moves slightly to the former.
Barzal was among our toughest picks, but we shaded him toward hype mainly due to a hefty $137,254 price tag for each of his 51 points last season—the last on a three-year deal from 2021—not to mention a nearly 11-point plunge in faceoff win percentage from 46.3 to 35.6.
For a guy of his stature, more is expected.
Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks
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It's not the kid's fault.
Connor Bedard was picked first at the NHL draft nearly three weeks before he turned 18, and he's expected by some to lay hands on a moribund franchise and turn it into a winner.
And after two junior seasons in which he had 122 goals and 243 points in 119 games, it's not too surprising that folks wearing Chicago Blackhawks sweaters are expecting big things.
But it can't be that good, can it?
At 5'10" and 185 pounds, Bedard is hardly a giant. And just three months past that 18th birthday he surely hasn't developed the full complement of "man strength" he'll need to survive the 82-night grind of the modern NHL.
There's a reason only four rookies since 2000-01 have surpassed 80 points. In other words, sorry folks, but he's not winning an Art Ross or a Hart right out of the gate.
Yet given the breathless manner in which Bedard is discussed as he approaches season No. 1, anything less than a point-per-game pace would seem underwhelming by comparison.
He may be great. But that's too much.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Los Angeles Kings
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There are a lot of reasons to like Pierre-Luc Dubois.
At 6'4" and 214 pounds, he's a big forward. He's got plenty of skill, too, and he's been respectably prolific since being drafted third overall in 2016, reaching 20 goals in four of his five full-time seasons with Columbus and Winnipeg.
But he doesn't come without cost.
His disgruntlement with the Blue Jackets led to the 2021 deal that sent him to the Jets, and he soon informed the management in Winnipeg that he'd not stay there long term, which prompted a summertime trade that sent him to Los Angeles for three players and a pick.
He immediately agreed to an eight-year deal that will pay him $8.5 million per season, which becomes pretty hefty territory for a guy who's never exceeded 63 points. By contrast, new Pacific Division rival Leon Draisaitl makes precisely the same salary but hasn't scored fewer than 70 points in any of the last seven seasons.
A nice player? Yes.
But too much money and too much trade capital for a guy who's not yet proved worthy.
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Seth Jones, Chicago Blackhawks
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The inclusion of Seth Jones makes the Blackhawks the first of two teams (spoiler alert) whose players will comprise 25 percent of our list.
And like New York's Barzal before him, it's not at all difficult to find material when Googling his name along with phrases like "overhyped" or "overrated."
He's an easy target thanks to a $9.5 million annual price tag for each of the next seven years, which ties him for fourth among active NHL defensemen. Because, guess what, he's not one of the league's top four defensemen. In fact, he's not even that close.
A 16-goal, 57-point season with Columbus in 2017-18 remains his high watermark even five seasons later, and the six power-play goals he's scored across those five seasons are still one tally shy of the seven he netted for the Blue Jackets in those 78 games.
Nevertheless, he was dealt to the Blackhawks in 2021 and immediately signed to the eight-year deal that places him among the league's elite even if his production doesn't.
Maybe Bedard's arriving tide will raise all Chicago's boats.
And given the depths to which Jones seems to have sunk, it better.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers
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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is an easy guy to like.
Fans like him. Media members like him. Teammates like him. Coaches like him.
He was a franchise stalwart with the Edmonton Oilers long before the arrival of guys named McDavid and Draisaitl and he's never failed to be a good soldier, whether in a misplaced feature role after his No. 1 overall pick in 2011 or in a complementary slot to Nos. 97 and 29.
He rewarded everyone's love with a breakout run at age 29, smashing career bests in goals and assists on the way to a remarkable 104 points just one season after posting 50.
It was the feel-good story of the year in northern Alberta.
But there's probably no one short of his own family who expects it again.
Nugent-Hopkins has the luxury of a spot on the most prolific power play in league history, and he scored 15 goals and added 38 assists with the man advantage last season. The point total was more than double his best previous power-play output across 11 NHL seasons, so even a moderate return to normalcy will prompt a significant statistical drop-off.
It won't detract from the affection. But it'll seem a lot more like reality.
Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers
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Don't hate the player. Hate the game.
That axiom could be applied to Darnell Nurse as it relates to the eight-year, $74 million contract he signed in the summer of 2021, a deal that'll pay him $9.25 million annually through the 2029-30.
It's not the now-28-year-old's fault that circumstances put him on the ice for a career-high 25:37 per game in his pre-contract year, allowing him to rack up a high watermark of 16 goals. And it's no more his fault, at least not just his fault, that the Oilers had been bounced from the playoffs in the opening round and were looking to retain a top blue-line asset.
But there's little argument that the deal has soured opinion on him.
It doesn't help that the 6'4", 215-pounder's turnover rate was fifth among NHL defensemen in 2022-23, doing nothing to reverse a perception that while the Edmonton offense—which led the league in scoring and established records for power-play productivity—is more than sufficient to win a championship, its defense is too leaky to succeed all the way to June.
Bottom line, hoisting a Cup is the only cure for what's ailing Nurse.
Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars
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Make no mistake, Tyler Seguin hasn't always been on this list.
Now 31 years old, the Dallas Stars forward was selected second overall behind Taylor Hall in the 2011 NHL draft and has far outperformed his draftmate across 13 seasons, scoring 62 more goals and twice reaching the Stanley Cup Final, including a championship hoist in his rookie year with the Bruins.
In fact, Seguin has scored 30 or more goals four times and eclipsed the 40 mark once, while Hall has made it out of the 20s just once.
But the last couple of years haven't been quite so spectacular.
Seguin played just three games in 2020-21 and hasn't recovered his pre-pandemic mojo, skidding since to a respectable but non-transcendent 45 goals and 99 points in 157 games across 2021-22 and 2022-23. Thirteen of his points last season came on special teams, reducing him to just 37 at even strength across 77 games.
You want to quibble that his age and resume of accomplishment precludes an overhyped tag, and that perhaps Hall belongs here instead? OK. But a guy making just shy of $10 million for the next four seasons still ought to be something more than a part-time commodity.
Trevor Zegras, Anaheim Ducks
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It's a good thing this list is alphabetical.
Because if it weren't, here's the guy who'd be leading it.
Yes, we know he's just 22 years old and only two full-time seasons into what's sure to be a long and lucrative NHL career. But go ahead and scan the league's roster of players for a guy who's been more hailed while peaking at 23 goals and 65 points.
Lest anyone forget, Zegras was the cover athlete for the NHL 23 video game and has been the stuff of legend for highlight compilers thanks to a slew of memorable goals. But when it comes to where he actually fits among the league's rank and file, he was included on neither the list of Top 50 players nor the rundown of Top 20 centers assembled by NHL Network.
Statistically, it doesn't get much better.
His minus-24 rating was third-worst among Anaheim forwards in 2022-23 and his faceoff percentage (41.4) was 166th among 195 centers who played at least 50 games. A 12.5 shooting percentage was good for just 77th in the same 195-player group, though his time on ice (18:50) was 30th with a team that's won just 53 of 164 games.
If he's at the forefront of the Ducks' youthful rise, we're still waiting.
Meantime, it seems Zegras might be due for another cover: NHL Hype 24.
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