How NFL Teams Have Fared Historically After Season-Altering Injuries to Star QBs
The devastating update that the New York Jets wanted to avoid is official: Aaron Rodgers will miss the 2023 season.
New York, which acquired Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers this offseason, opened the campaign with Super Bowl dreams. However, the future Hall of Famer exited the Jets' opener and will not be available for the rest of the season because of a torn Achilles.
In short: this situation stinks for New York.
During the last 20 years, several organizations have endured a similar worst-case scenario: an injury to a star quarterback in the preseason or early stages of the regular season.
Sometimes, the teams have overcome the major absence to make the playoffs. Others, though, have folded badly.
There is no projectable trend here; the objective of this historical dive is simply to share the facts of what happened in the past. But the Jets—now led by Zach Wilson—are officially a part of this inglorious list.
Each quarterback mentioned made no more than six appearances before his respective injury.
Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons (2003)
1 of 8
Every year, it's normal to see star QBs play a limited number of preseason snaps. Among the reasons for that conservative plan, one hope is avoiding what happened to Michael Vick in a 2003 exhibition.
Vick, who finished fourth in MVP voting in 2002, ended up missing 11 games due to a broken right fibula.
In the process, his absence changed the franchise's direction.
Atlanta stumbled to 2-9 as Doug Johnson and Kurt Kittner took turns piloting the offense. Plus, the Falcons dropped to 2-10 in Vick's season debut, although he relieved Johnson in the third quarter of that loss.
Vick started the next contest and picked up a win, but Atlanta fired coach Dan Reeves after the game. The Falcons ended the year 5-11.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots (2008)
2 of 8
Perhaps the most memorable Week 1 injury in NFL history, Tom Brady logged 15 snaps in the 2008 opener before a low tackle from Bernard Pollard ended the quarterback's season just as it began.
Fortunately for the New England Patriots—who ended a single win shy of a perfect year in 2007—it didn't obliterate their season.
Matt Cassel stepped into the lineup and guided the Pats to 11-5, throwing for 3,693 yards with 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
The downside is New England missed the playoffs due to losing multiple tiebreakers. Both the Miami Dolphins (AFC East) and Baltimore Ravens (wild card) also registered an 11-5 mark, but they clipped the Patriots thanks to a superior record opposite AFC opponents.
Given the circumstance, New England still managed to have an admirable year without Brady.
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (2011)
3 of 8
Three seasons later, the Indianapolis Colts experienced the inglorious fall of a franchise legend.
Peyton Manning underwent two neck surgeries in 2011, the second of which happened in early September. At the time, it was unclear if he'd return. That optimism continually faded, however, and Manning ultimately never played another snap as a member of the Colts.
Indianapolis, which had earned six division titles in the previous seven seasons, narrowly avoided a winless year.
Kerry Collins started three games, but a concussion also abruptly ended the veteran's season (and career). Curtis Painter lost his eight starts. Dan Orlovsky dropped his first two games before the 0-13 Colts mustered two wins in the last three outings.
Indy finished 2-14 and secured the No. 1 pick of the 2012 draft, which just so happened to include Andrew Luck. The team transitioned from Manning to Luck in the offseason.
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Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (2015-16)
4 of 8
Throw in his six-game season in 2010, and Tony Romo endured some pretty miserable injury luck. However, the worst moments for the longtime Dallas Cowboys' starter happened in back-to-back years.
Romo assembled a brilliant 2014 campaign and finished third in MVP voting, so expectations were understandably high in 2015.
But in Week 2, a broken collarbone put Romo on the shelf for seven games. He returned in Week 11 only for another shoulder injury one week later to sideline him for the year. Dallas cycled through Cassel, Brandon Weeden and Kellen Moore on the way to 4-12.
The future of the franchise changed in 2016.
After a preseason back injury sidelined Romo, the Cowboys turned to rookie Dak Prescott. Romo figured to regain QB1 status once healthy, but Dallas enjoyed a 13-3 campaign with Prescott at the helm.
Romo retired in the offseason.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2017)
5 of 8
What a cruel sequel for the Colts.
Manning's historic tenure with Indianapolis ended because of his neck issues, and shoulder injuries then ruined Luck's career. Most notably, he missed the entire 2017 season while recovering from surgery.
The problem is, like Manning, the Colts entered September with ill-fated hope of Luck returning at some point.
In his absence, Indy watched Scott Tolzien lose 46-9 in the opener and Jacoby Brissett trudge to a 4-11 mark. The franchise fired head coach Chuck Pagano after the 4-12 season.
Luck propelled the Colts to a 10-6 record and playoff spot in 2018 with new coach Frank Reich but retired before the 2019 season.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (2017)
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While not exactly similar, Aaron Rodgers has traveled this injury-affected road before 2023.
Back in 2017, he propelled Green Bay to a 4-1 start. Minnesota Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr slammed Rodgers to the ground, though, and a seven-game absence began in Week 6.
Brett Hundley joined the lineup, and the Packers—after falling to Minnesota—dropped to 5-6 because of four losses in their next five games. Rodgers rushed back to start against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, but a loss eliminated Green Bay from playoff contention and snapped an eight-year postseason streak.
Hundley started and lost the last two contests, sending the franchise to its first sub-.500 season (7-9) since 2008.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (2019)
7 of 8
One year earlier, Ben Roethlisberger set career-high marks of 5,129 passing yards and 34 touchdowns.
He only played two games in 2019.
Roethlisberger severely injured his right elbow in Week 2 and could not return for the remainder of the season. Pittsburgh made a valiant run at a playoff spot behind Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, even holding a wild-card position at 8-5 through Week 14.
Rudolph and Hodges both stumbled down the stretch, however, and the Steelers lost three straight games to end 8-8. They scored just 10 points in each of those losses.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (2020)
8 of 8
During the fifth game of the 2020 season, Dak Prescott endured a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle. At the time, the Cowboys were already just 1-3.
Andy Dalton immediately guided a comeback win, but Dallas lost the next four outings. The veteran QB started the first two, then Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert opened one game apiece with Dalton in concussion and Covid protocols, respectively.
Dallas quickly fell to 2-7 and exited the playoff conversation, and the Cowboys ultimately finished 6-10.
Prescott, the AP Comeback Player of the Year runner-up in 2021, has since guided the franchise to consecutive 12-win years.
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