The Most Surprising NFL QB Seasons in the Past Decade

Although the NFL world generally has a good handle on what to expect from quarterbacks in a given season, huge surprises can happen.

Take, for example, the 2022 campaign. Not only did Jared Goff put together a remarkable midseason rise, Geno Smith assembled a shockingly strong year after spending nearly a decade as a backup.

In short: Who saw that coming?

Those are the types of performances we're remembering from NFL signal-callers in the last decade.

Preference is given to a players who opened a majority of games, though short-term starters such as Teddy Bridgewater (2019) and Brock Purdy (2022) deserve a mention. The list is organized chronologically.

Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (2015)

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GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 27: Quarterback Carson Palmer #3 of the Arizona Cardinals looks to make a pass in the first half of the NFL game against the Green Bay Packers at the University of Phoenix Stadium on December 27, 2015 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Yes, this resurgent season ended in ghastly fashion for Carson Palmer. The veteran committed six turnovers in an ugly NFC Championship Game loss to the Carolina Panthers.

But he'd absolutely excelled for much of the year.

While the Cardinals went 6-0 in his starts in 2014, Palmer's underlying numbers hadn't shifted from his norms. Plus, a torn left ACL ended his season. Entering the 2015 campaign, he was an unspectacular QB who's approaching 35 years old after a second major injury.

All of that negativity didn't define his season, though. Palmer turned in career-best totals of 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns, along with a full-season low 2.0 interception rate and NFL-leading 8.7 yards per attempt.

Arizona posted a 13-3 record to secure an NFC West title, and the Cardinals edged the Green Bay Packers before the Carolina loss.

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (2015)

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ORCHARD PARK, NY - DECEMBER 27: Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Buffalo Bills fakes a pass as he runs with the ball while being chased by DeMarcus Lawrence #90 of the Dallas Cowboys during NFL game action at Ralph Wilson Stadium on December 27, 2015 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Following the 2014 season, a rough Buffalo Bills' quarterback room absorbed yet another hit when Kyle Orton retired. He hadn't been awesome, but at least the Bills won nine games.

Buffalo took a gamble on Tyrod Taylor, who'd attempted just 35 passes in four seasons as a backup with the Baltimore Ravens.

And it paid off remarkably well, given his inexperience.

Taylor threw for 3,035 yards with 20 touchdowns to six interceptions, adding 568 yards and four scores on the ground. He even earned a spot in the Pro Bowl as the Bills finished 8-8.

Taylor remained the team's QB1 through 2017, a season in which he helped the franchise break its 18-year playoff drought.

Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings (2017)

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MINNEAPOLIS, MN - DECEMBER 31: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Case Keenum (7) lines up under center during a NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears on December 31, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.The Vikings defeated the Bears 23-10.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Early in his journeyman career, Case Keenum found himself pushed into the Minnesota Vikings' lineup. Sam Bradford endured yet another knee injury and effectively missed the entire 2017 season.

Keenum capitalized with an incredible year. Miraculous, even.

As a nine-game starter for the Los Angeles Rams in 2016, he tossed nine touchdowns to 11 interceptions. But with the Vikings, he tallied 3,547 yards with 22 scores to seven picks. Keenum finished second in AP Comeback Player of the Year voting.

Minnesota ended the year 13-3 and defeated the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round, thanks to Keenum's shocking 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs as time expired.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2018)

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NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 30: Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts signals at the line of scrimmage during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Colts defeated the Titans 33-17. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Andrew Luck's career is nothing short of fascinating.

Following the 2016 season, he underwent surgery to correct a lingering shoulder issue. Luck ended up missing all of 2017 and even spent two months in the Netherlands for treatment and rehab. Throughout the summer of 2018, it still was unclear if he'd truly recovered.

Luck quieted the noise in emphatic fashion, passing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. He landed the AP Comeback Player of the Year, propelled the Indianapolis Colts to a 10-6 record and won a playoff game.

The outstanding year seemed to indicate Luck, nearing his age-30 season, had reclaimed his excellence. However, he shocked the NFL world and retired just days before the 2019 campaign began.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (2019)

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NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 22: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans looks to throw during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

In six seasons as the Miami Dolphins' starter, Ryan Tannehill had typically been a serviceable, uninspiring QB. Basically, he helped the Dolphins maintain their aggressive mediocrity.

Miami traded him to the Tennessee Titans in 2019, and he began the season as Marcus Mariota's backup.

But the Titans benched Mariota in mid-October, and Tannehill turned in a stellar 10-game stretch. He threw for 2,742 yards with 22 touchdowns to six interceptions, notching an NFL-best 9.6 yards per attempt while chipping in 185 rushing yards and four more scores.

Tennessee went 7-3 in Tannehill's starts, squeezed into the postseason at 9-7 and had a memorable playoff run.

First, the Titans defeated the New England Patriots in what would be Tom Brady's final game with the organization. Tennessee then upset the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens prior to an AFC Championship Game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the future Super Bowl champions.

Tannehill parlayed that season into a four-year, $118 million contract.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (2022)

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DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 24: Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) hands the ball off to Detroit Lions running back Justin Jackson (42) during a regular season NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day on November 24, 2022 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Sean McVay's arrival to the Rams in 2017 ignited Jared Goff's career. But as their partnership continued through 2020, Goff's performance declined and pushed Los Angeles to acquire Matthew Stafford.

Goff headed to the Detroit Lions, and he did a passable job at best on a very mediocre roster in 2021.

Entering the 2022 season, the outlook seemed set: Goff was a bridge quarterback for a rebuilding team and would be a potential salary-cap casualty in either 2023 or 2024. While the Lions limped to a 1-6 start, that attitude didn't change much, if at all.

Over the final 10 games, however, Goff assembled the best stretch of his career with 17 touchdowns and two turnovers. Detroit climbed all the way back to 9-8 and only missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker.

Goff shifted his perception from a temporary starter for the Lions to a potential long-term answer.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (2022)

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MUNICH, GERMANY - NOVEMBER 13: Geno Smith of Seattle Seahawks controls the ball during the NFL match between Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Allianz Arena on November 13, 2022 in Munich, Germany. (Photo by Roland Krivec/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)

Goff and Detroit ended on the wrong side of a tiebreaker to Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks.

What a season it was for Smith.

But first, the journey. Back in 2013 and 2014, he started 19 games with the New York Jets. He posted just 6.9 yards per attempt and tossed 25 scores to 34 interceptions. As a result, Smith waver never more than a backup and/or occasional spot-starter for the Jets, New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks through 2021.

Seattle traded Russell Wilson prior to the 2022 season, and the Seahawks continually said Smith would be the starter. Based on his career trajectory, that seemed foolish.

Well, joke's on us. Smith cooled in the latter half of the campaign but completed a league-high 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns. He won AP Comeback Player of the Year and finished ninth in MVP voting as the Seahawks made the playoffs.

The feel-good breakout story also included Smith signing a three-year extension with $40 million guaranteed.