How Joe Burrow's NFL Record Contract Extension Impacts QB Market
The quarterback market operates independently from the rest of the NFL's financial ecosphere. While those in other position groups are usually trying to sign market-level deals, with a few exceptions that slightly reset their respective spots, the highest-paid quarterback is generally the one who signs last.
This year, the quarterback market has already been reset on four different occasions.
In April, the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts became the first NFL player to reach $51 million in average annual salary. Ten days later, the Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson topped that number with a $52 million average. The Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert leapfrogged both at $52.5 million annually when he signed a contract extension in July. On Thursday, the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow agreed to a new five-year, $275 million contract, with an average annual salary of $55 million.
Initially, 31 owners balked at the Browns' desperate ploy to trade for then sign Deshaun Watson to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract. The number became the primary sticking point during a public spat between Jackson and the Ravens before a deal was eventually consummated. Interestingly, Burrow's overall guarantees sit at $219 million.
It's only a matter of time before the quarterback position's average annual salary escalates over $60 million and the Watson deal is left in the dust regarding guaranteed money.
As of now, nine of the top 10 highest-paid players in total contractual worth are quarterbacks. The San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa sneaked into the 10 spot recently when he signed a five-year, $170 million contract extension. There's no reason to believe the bubble is going to burst on the quarterback market.
Instead, those next in line are standing on escalators. Five have the potential to benefit the most over the next year.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
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The Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes already signed the richest deal in NFL history. Yet that same deal is now out of step with the rest of the market in key areas.
Mahomes' $450 million contract is as team-friendly as it gets when it comes to such an exorbitant deal. After all, his yearly salary-cap charge doesn't exceed $50 million until 2027.
To be clear, the Chiefs will spend the most actual cash on their quarterback this year when NFL accounting is taken out of the mix, according to Over The Cap. However he'll only find himself in the same top five once during the next three years (before seeing the final details of Burrow's new deal).
When looking at Mahomes' contract from a macro level, he now ranks eighth in average annual salary ($45 million) and ninth in guaranteed money ($141.5 million).
The Chiefs might not be in any hurry to renegotiate their quarterback's deal since he's signed through the 2031 season. But the actual guarantees are minimal to non-existent after the '25 campaign. Furthermore, other quarterbacks signing record-setting deals will place the best football player on the planet further and further behind on the salary scale.
No one can deny Mahomes' greatness. He'd walk into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in five years if he retired today. He's a two-time league MVP, Super Bowl MVP and Super Bowl champion. He's helped revolutionize how everyone looks at the game's most important position and changed the game based on his skill set. His contract should be representative of his status as the best of the best.
Kansas City would be wise to revisit his current deal at some point in the near future to reflect the market. By doing so, the Chiefs can get ahead of it again while the 27-year-old continues well into his prime years.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence may be a lock to officially reset the market once he and the team iron out his second contract.
Lawrence enters his third season after being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft. He'll hit the initial window to negotiate a contract extension next offseason.
The signs of a special signal-caller emerged last year after a disastrous rookie campaign thanks to the organizational dysfunction created by previous head coach Urban Meyer. This third campaign is when Lawrence could place himself among the likes of Mahomes, Burrow and Josh Allen.
"I think he's close to putting himself with that group," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said during an interview on The Rich Eisen Show (h/t Fox Sports' Ben Arthur). "He's very capable of putting himself with that group. Those guys obviously have a couple years of experience over him, but he's headed in that right direction. … That's the next step, getting himself in that conversation. He started doing that at the end of last season."
During the final nine games of the 2022 regular season, Lawrence completed 69.7 percent of his passes with a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio as the Jaguars won seven contests and claimed the organization's first division title in five years.
Now in Year 2 of Pederson's system and with the addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley, Lawrence's ascension should continue. As a result, he could realistically be the individual who surpasses the all-time record in guaranteed money because of his age (currently 23) and how he helps elevate the entire franchise.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
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Two different conversations will always follow the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa.
On the field, he's a pinpoint passer and an ideal fit in Mike McDaniel's explosive offense, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle working down the field.
Despite a slow start to his career after being the fifth overall selection in the 2020 draft class, the 25-year-old looked exceptional in Year 3. However, an asterisk must be placed on his Pro Bowl performance, because Tagovailoa didn't play in five contests due to injuries, specifically two diagnosed concussions.
Any organization would be hesitant about handing a player with a history of concussions a megadeal that could push beyond $275 million. In this case, it's still plausible but will be based on what occurs during the 2023 season.
Tagovailoa took precautions this offseason to be better prepared for the NFL's physicality by picking up jiu-jitsu.
"For guys at my position, we barely get hit throughout practices, throughout the offseason, even going into training camp," Tagovailoa said, per ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques. "We don't even get touched until the season starts.
"So I mean, with jiu-jitsu, I've been thrown airborne, I've been put in many uncomfortable positions for me to learn how to fall and try to react throughout those positions that I'm getting thrown around in."
A fully healthy standout season will likely be enough to bring the Dolphins organization to the table next offseason as Tagovailoa enters the final year on his rookie contract.
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Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
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The Justin Fields discourse is fascinating. He's yet to truly reach the status of franchise quarterback, and he's clearly a work-in-progress. Yet he's so naturally gifted and asked to do so much for the Chicago Bears that it feels like he's going to be the long-term answer in the Windy City.
If that comes to fruition, the Bears organization should race to the table to sign him to a long-term contract extension.
Until that point is reached, this season is all about progression. One of the reasons Fields' status remains uncertain is the way the organization built around the 2021 11th overall draft pick.
As a rookie, the Bears didn't immediately name Fields their starter. Later in the year, the first-rounder suffered cracked ribs that put a damper on his play. In Year 2, a lack of a quality supporting cast really limited the entire Chicago offense. The quarterback shouldered far too much, which led to Fields rushing for 1,143 yards—the number ranks second all-time behind Lamar Jackson's 1,206 during his MVP campaign.
This offseason, general manager Ryan Poles finally went to work and added some legitimate pieces around Fields, with the acquisitions of wide receiver D.J. Moore, tight end Robert Tonyan Jr., guard Nate Davis and this year's 10th overall pick, right tackle Darnell Wright.
Once this season comes to a close, Fields will enter the initial window to negotiate a contract extension. Chicago's history with quarterbacks is abysmal. More positive signs from the 24-year-old should ease any concerns about agreeing to a massive deal.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
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Two years ago, the thought of Jared Goff being included in any conversation about top-paid quarterbacks would have garnered significant ridicule.
Basically, the Los Angeles Rams, who traded up to select Goff with the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, wanted a better option behind center and sent their quarterback plus two firsts and a third-round pick to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford in 2021. Less than two years prior, the Rams signed Goff to a four-year, $134 million contract extension.
Essentially, the Rams saw Stafford as a significant upgrade who didn't limit Sean McVay's offensive scheme. The team did win a Super Bowl with Stafford behind center.
So going from that point to discussing Goff as a quarterback in consideration for a top-of-the-market deal speaks highly of the Lions organization and what it saw in the Rams castoff.
Goff turned into perfect fit for the Lions. He stabilized the offense as a veteran signal-caller. While the front office built a better foundation, Goff didn't falter. Since joining the Lions in 2021, the quarterback has posted a 49-to-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's coming off a Pro Bowl season. He's excels playing from a clean pocket behind Detroit's standout offensive line. And the 28-year-old is a significant part of a team with big expectations this fall.
The previously mentioned extension ends after the 2024 season. If the Lions do make the playoffs this season and possibly win a division title with Goff leading the way, the franchise won't be able to help but offer him the type of deal that would have been unthinkable not long ago.
All contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless otherwise noted.
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