Fantasy Football 2023: Sleeper WRs You Must Target Late in Drafts
This time last year, Jacksonville Jaguars WR Zay Jones' average draft position (ADP) was so late he was going undrafted in many leagues. He rewarded those who took a shot on him with a WR24 finish in PPR leagues.
Jones was largely an afterthought in draft season but wound up being a borderline WR2 and strong flex play.
Expecting the same of Jones this season is probably not a good strategy. He was the beneficiary of a breakout offense and an unexpected share of the targets.
Good fantasy drafters are going to be on the lookout for the next Jones during the final rounds of their drafts. The following players all have a FantasyPros' ADP higher than 136 because that marks the final quarter of standard 12-team drafts.
Each of these players is going late in drafts but carries a high upside either because of the offense they are in, their potential for a personal breakout or a path to a larger role than anticipated.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
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ADP: WR59
Nico Collins has not been a fantasy-relevant receiver through his first two years in the league. The Texans offense has finished 30th in scoring in each of those two seasons.
They were also waiting for Davis Mills to emerge as a legitimate NFL starter. So while C.J Stroud will likely have some growing pains as a rookie, he's going to be an upgrade over what the Texans have had at quarterback.
That's good news for Collins, who has some underlying metrics that point toward him being able to break out.
Per Player Profiler, Collins was fourth in true catch rate, a metric that measures a player's catch rate compared to catchable targets. He was also No. 2 in contested catch rate.
The 6'4", 215-pounder is a reliable downfield target who struggles to separate but is going to come down with a high rate of jump balls. Stroud's specialty is ball placement so he should have no problem putting the ball on Collins.
With Kyle Shanahan disciple Bobby Slowik taking over the offense, it's safe to assume that he's going to make the offense user-friendly for the rookie quarterback. That should mean a good amount of designed looks to Collins.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
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ADP: WR80
Cooper Kupp is being taken in the first round because of the expected volume that he'll see as the Rams' primary target.
Those who go that route would be wise to handcuff him with Van Jefferson in the later rounds of the draft. Even those who don't have Kupp should be willing to take a late flier on Jefferson based on Sean McVay's recent comments and the team's situation.
Cooper Kupp missed eight games last season with an ankle injury. Now, he's dealing with a hamstring injury that McVay acknowledged had a "setback" before expounding on their expectations for him.
"It's just tricky," McVay said, per Jordan Rodrigue of The Athletic. "There's a difference between 'return to play' and 'return to performance'. We want 'return to performance' for Cooper Kupp, and we know how special of a player, how special of a person he is."
Rodrigue also noted that Jefferson would assume No. 1 receiver responsibilities while Tutu Atwell and rookie Puka Nacua would be the second and third options.
Jefferson did not break out with Kupp out of the lineup last season, but it's worth mentioning that most of those games came without Matthew Stafford. Jefferson was trying to catch passes from Baker Mayfield, John Wolford and Bryce Perkins.
If Stafford is healthy and Jefferson becomes the team's No. 1 receiver, he could become a worthwhile flex play for practically nothing.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
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ADP: WR54
The Raiders' passing attack obviously centers around Davante Adams, but their moves this offseason point toward featuring plenty of Jakobi Meyers.
Vegas signed the former Patriots wideout to a three-year, $33 million contract despite a lot of overlap between him and Hunter Renfrow. Both are strong route runners who thrive in the slot.
They also replaced Derek Carr, who was fourth in intended air yards per target, with Jimmy Garoppolo, who was 25th. The pairing of Jimmy G and Adams is a questionable one. Adams does his best work down field and the offense with Garoppolo might not optimize what he brings to the table.
Adams made some remarks this offseason about not seeing eye-to-eye with the organization.
It all leaves the door open for trade speculation and buzz to grow if the season gets off to a rocky start. That also opens the possibility that Meyers takes over as the Raiders top receiver. Even if he doesn't, he should be a Garoppolo favorite with Adams attracting plenty of defensive attention.
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Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
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ADP: WR77
Sometimes it pays to simply listen to what a team is telling us. In the case of the Denver Broncos, they spoke loud and clear when they drafted Marvin Mims Jr. with a second-round pick despite having multiple receivers with varying levels of hype.
Fantasy managers have been trying all offseason to figure out if Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton is the Broncos receiver to roster. But Sean Payton wasn't around when either of them were drafted.
He had a direct hand in taking the Oklahoma receiver and praised his toughness from Day 1.
Payton's praise is particularly impressive because Mims is 5'11", 183 pounds, but if the coach trusts his run blocking it means he can take on a bigger role. That will be important because Tim Patrick is on injured reserve and Jerry Jeudy is questionable right now with a hamstring injury and KJ Hamler was waived with a non-football illness designation.
When Mims was drafted, it looked like he was going to have to navigate a crowded depth chart to be an impact player. All of a sudden, it looks like the Broncos will start the season with Courtland Sutton and Mims as their top two options.
Don't be surprised if the rookie takes that role and runs with it.
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
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ADP: WR63
Don't sleep on Jonathan Mingo when it comes to the rookie wide receivers this season. The Ole Miss alum doesn't have the same hype as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison or even Quentin Johnston but you can make the argument he might see more targets.
Consider the competition the aforementioned rookies will see for targets. JSN has D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Addison has Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson while Johnston has Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.
All three are in line to be the third option, at best.
Mingo's competition for targets from Bryce Young are a 33-year-old Adam Thielen and the oft-injured D.J. Chark, who is already dealing with a hamstring injury.
The 6'2", 225-pound receiver is a size and speed nightmare for opposing secondaries with 4.46 speed to stretch defenses.
In a column where ESPN's Dan Graziano was predicting the biggest surprise for each team he highlighted Mingo's potential to become Young's favorite target.
It's really not that hard to envision it playing out that way. If it does, he's going to easily outperform his ADP.
Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns
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ADP: WR51
Elijah Moore had all the makings of a breakout candidate in 2022. He showed glimpses of the electric playmaking that had the Jets using a second-round pick on him in the 2021 draft.
Then came a massive letdown of a season. Moore wound up on Robert Saleh's bad side and didn't have a consistent role. Even when he did see targets they were coming from the likes of Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco.
Fortunately for Moore, his days in New York are over. The Cleveland Browns made the move to trade for him, signalling their belief that he can help upgrade their offense.
It's a passing attack that is looking for answers after Deshaun Watson's debut with the team fell flat. Moore is the most significant addition of the offseason. He'll be flanked by Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Cooper established himself as the No. 1 receiver in the offense last season, but it will be interesting to see who takes over as the secondary option.
Moore is a good bet. His after-the-catch ability and speed are going to make life easier for Watson. His route win rate (44.2 percent) was also notably higher than DPJ's (39.4 percent).
Isaiah Hodgins, New York Giants
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The New York Giants receiver room is a bit of a mess to figure out, but sometimes the answer has been there the whole time.
The Giants made a few moves to bolster a receiving corps that struggled through injuries last season. Darren Waller could end up leading the team in targets at tight end but the pecking order for receivers is anyone's guess.
The Giants went from 31st in scoring to 15th in Brian Daboll's first year. Assuming they continue to improve, they should have at least one wide receiver who is fantasy relevant.
Isaiah Hodgins is worth a dart throw. He has more humble beginnings than some of the other names on the depth chart, but he had four top-24 finishes over the final five weeks of the season.
At 6'3", 201 pounds he established himself as a Daniel Jones favorite in the red zone.
In a receiving group that's heavy on smaller, slot receivers, Hodgins size and chemistry with Jones could lead to a better-than-expected season.
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