Fantasy Football 2023: Examining Expert Mock Drafts After Preseason Week 3

The wait is over.

Well, almost.

With the 2023 NFL preseason slate in the books, the only thing standing between us and the campaign's actual opening kick is time. Fantasy football season is here.

Since fantasy experts effectively have all the data that the pre-draft season will provide now, it's the perfect time to find out what they're thinking by rounding up and a breaking down a trio of their recent mock drafts.

How far is Jonathan Taylor falling now that he's assured of missing at least the first four games of the season? How early is too early to take Bijan Robinson? When is the right time to invest in a quarterback? Let's find out those answers and many more.

12-Team, PPR Mock

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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 29: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans hands the ball off to Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans during training camp at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park on July 29, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

This mock came courtesy of the ESPN crew, and it largely followed an expected path early on. Justin Jefferson went off the board first, followed by Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Travis Kelce. Even if you want to quibble about this exact order, there are no surprise players in the mix.

But the first curveball came at pick No. 7 with Derrick Henry, an elite rushing talent but not someone who ever hugely impacts the passing game. That's why in a lot of PPR leagues, he'll not only last beyond the first round, he'll land near the middle of the second (average draft position of 16, per FantasyPros). Taking him this high is banking a lot on the ground-game work of a near-30-year-old running back.

That selection was probably the biggest eyebrow-raiser of this mock, but there are some things worth clocking in every mock.

Bijan Robinson wound up in the No. 10 spot, which could be tremendous value if he falls that far. The first quarterback didn't go until the third round (Patrick Mahomes, No. 28), but two more were taken in the same round (Jalen Hurts, No. 30, and Josh Allen, No. 36). And finally, Jonthan Taylor, who wasn't traded and remains on the physically unable to perform list, went in the sixth round as the No. 66 selection.

10-Team, Half-PPR Mock

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COSTA MESA, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 6: Quarterback Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers duding training camp at Jack Hammett Sports Complex on August 6, 2023 in Costa Mesa, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Half-PPR mocks are interesting, because you're sort of blending the standard scoring and full-PPR formats together. It gives fantasy managers the freedom to craft just about any reasonable strategy.

In this mock, from the Yahoo Sports folks, Nick Chubb was the run-first back getting pushed up the board. He was taken at No. 7, or nine spots earlier than Derrick Henry. These two often go in close proximity, so it's always intriguing to see a gap this large between them. They're close to a coin flip for me, but this mock and others will show some really value one over the other.

The most notable moves in this mock were made at the quarterback spot, which wasn't touched until the third round. When it was addressed, Jalen Hurts was the first to go at pick No. 22, immediately followed by Patrick Mahomes at No. 23. Josh Allen was up next, but not until No. 32. Maybe most surprising of all, Justin Herbert, usually the sixth quarterback taken, wound up eighth at the position (No. 68), trailing that trio, Lamar Jackson (No. 41), Justin Fields (No. 44), Joe Burrow (No. 56) and Trevor Lawrence (No. 66).

As for the other picks we're always clocking, Bijan Robinson went No. 9, and Jonathan Taylor was taken in the third round at No. 25.

12-Team, PPR Mock

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ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 24: Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons warms up prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 24, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

This industry mock, shared by CBS Sports, was the only one that passed on both Nick Chubb (No. 13) and Derrick Henry (No. 19) in the first round. But it was hardly down on the running back position. Bijan Robinson went the earliest of these three mocks (No. 5), and Tony Pollard cracked the first round (No. 11).

The second round served up even bigger stunners. Jonathan Taylor, uncertainty and all, went at No. 20. Rhamondre Stevenson, a fourth-round selection in the ESPN and Yahoo mocks, went one selection later at No. 21. That's 10 spots higher than he usually goes, and as those other mocks show, he can slide even farther.

While some backs went higher than expected, a few receivers fell lower than normal. CeeDee Lamb at No. 17 is good value. Jaylen Waddle at No. 27 should be a steal. DK Metcalf at No. 42 might meet the legal requirements of larceny.

Closing with the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes went in the second round (No. 24) and was followed by three signal-callers in the third: Jalen Hurts (No. 30), Josh Allen (No. 32) and Lamar Jackson (No. 33). The Baltimore Ravens quarterbacks was the No. 41 pick in the two other mocks.