Ranking Every NFL Division's Potential Worst-to-First Team Entering 2023 Season
Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off an impressive feat, going from last place in the AFC South (and the entire league for that matter) to winning the division. So, with the 2023 campaign around the corner, which teams have the best chance to be this year's version of the Jaguars?
Several factors played into Jacksonville's rise a year ago. The Jaguars got a new head coach in Doug Peterson, spent quite a bit of money in free agency on players like Christian Kirk and had an ascending quarterback with Trevor Lawrence, and the rest of the division got weaker.
Here, we'll take all of that into consideration to rank teams in order of least to most likely to go from worst to first this fall.
8. Arizona Cardinals, NFC West
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Key offseason additions: HC Jonathan Gannon, OT Paris Johnson Jr., Edge BJ Ojulari
Losing Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency was a huge blow for the Arizona Cardinals this offseason. Now, they're projected to start Marco Wilson and Antonio Hamilton at cornerback, and the position will likely be one of their biggest needs in March.
Defensive tackle Zach Allen bolting for the Denver Broncos doesn't help either, and with the recent trades of Isaiah Simmons and Josh Jones, the tank job appears to be on. So it should come as no surprise the Cardinals rank last here. And I haven't even mentioned the loss of All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
QB situation: Starter Kyler Murray will miss the first four games of the year as the Cardinals placed him on PUP, and they released veteran backup Colt McCoy during their roster cuts at the end of camp, muddying the waters when it comes to Arizona's Week 1 starter.
Gannon's options are Joshua Dobbs, who the team recently traded for and is 0-2 as a starter in six seasons as a pro, and rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune. That's even more reason to think the Red Birds will stay toward the bottom of the NFC West.
NFC West outlook: The San Francisco 49ers are the defending champs in the division and are widely considered to be a Super Bowl contender once again this season. Plus, the Seattle Seahawks are a reigning playoff team and the Los Angeles Rams were injury-plagued in 2022 and are just two years removed from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
In other words, the NFC West has three teams that could be playoff contenders, which puts a damper on Arizona's chances to win the division.
7. Washington Commanders, NFC East
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Key offseason additions: C Nick Gates, CB Emmanuel Forbes, OC Eric Bieniemy
The good news for the Washington Commanders heading into the season is they didn't lose many notable players in the offseason. Quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke are gone but, at least with Wentz, that might be addition by subtraction as neither was good in 2022.
Meanwhile, Gates and offensive tackle Andrew Wylie can help stabilize their offensive line while Forbes gives the defense a playmaker in the secondary with his six career pick-sixes in college. Also, Bieniemy has an impressive resume as a two-time Super Bowl champion and played a hand in developing Patrick Mahomes into the best quarterback in the league.
So, the Commanders have a chance to be a pesky team this season.
QB situation: The uncertainty surrounding Sam Howell is a big reason Washington is so low on this list despite everything mentioned above. Howell only started one game as a rookie and completed 11 of 19 passes for just 169 yards and one touchdown with one interception.
While Washington certainly hopes he's the signal-caller of the future, the North Carolina product is still an unproven 2022 fifth-round pick. Assuming he'll be good enough to go from worst to first in what projects to be a competitive division would just be blind faith.
NFC East outlook: After sending three teams to the playoffs a year ago, it should be a dogfight for the NFC East crown once again. Both the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders, and while there are question marks surrounding the New York Giants, they have a better head coach and quarterback combo than Washington does.
6. Houston Texans, AFC South
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Key offseason additions: HC DeMeco Ryans, QB C.J. Stroud, Edge Will Anderson Jr.
Somewhat quietly, the Houston Texans had a couple of good signings in free agency with tight end Dalton Schultz and linebacker Denzel Perryman.
During his last three seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, Schultz racked up 198 catches, 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns while competing for targets with wide receivers CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Meanwhile, Perryman is two years removed from a 150-tackle and Pro Bowl campaign, and he averaged nearly seven tackles per game last season while battling injuries.
The Texans' biggest loss of the offseason was wide receiver Brandin Cooks, but they gained John Metchie III, who missed all of 2022 after getting diagnosed with leukemia, and Tank Dell to help replace Cooks.
Plus, they added two top-three picks in the draft for Ryans to begin the rebuild in Houston, including one of the best pass-rushers to come out of college in recent years with Anderson Jr.
QB situation: As with any rookie quarterback, it's expected that Stroud might stumble out of the gates this season which will, obliviously, impact the Texans' final record. However, he was B/R Scouting Department's No. 1 quarterback heading into the draft, and QB scout Derrik Klassen noted that the former Buckeye "can be an effective rookie-contract quarterback."
AFC South outlook: The overall strength of the AFC South is a big factor in what keeps Houston from the bottom of this ranking. The Jaguars won the division at 9-8 last year while the Tennessee Titans have several question marks, and Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay appears more interested in marine life than making sure one of his best players is happy.
All of that boosts the Texans' odds of going worst to first.
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5. Chicago Bears, NFC North
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Key offseason additions: OT Darnell Wright, WR DJ Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds
It was pretty clear what second-year general manager Ryan Poles' main goal for the Chicago Bears was this offseason; get Justin Fields some help.
Hence why Poles traded the first overall pick in the draft for a package that included Moore, who has 5,201 career receiving yards and 21 touchdowns in five years, and still allowed him to take one of the best offensive tackles in the draft, Darnell Wright. That should give Fields more time to throw and a receiver who can get open.
The Bears also made a few quality defensive signings in free agency with Edmunds, pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue and defensive tackle Andrew Billings. Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler who has had at least 100 total tackles every season he's been a pro, while Ngakoue brings over 65 career sacks and Billings was a quality run-stuffer for the Las Vegas Raiders last year.
QB situation: Fields' growth as a passer has been widely discussed over the last several months but, as mentioned above, Chicago has equipped him with plenty of tools for success.
In addition to Moore, he'll have wideouts Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney to throw to. Both are coming off down years, but Claypool had back-to-back 850-yard seasons to begin his career, and Mooney is a year removed from a 1,000-yard performance.
Also, left tackle Braxton Jones is entering his second season after an impressive rookie year to give Fields even more protection and time to throw.
Long story short, the 2021 No. 11 overall pick is heading into a "no excuses" type of campaign in what will be his third season as a pro.
NFC North outlook: The NFC North is a bit of a mystery to begin the season.
While the Minnesota Vikings are the reigning champs, they had a negative point differential last year, which typically signals a regression is coming. The Detroit Lions are a sexy pick to win the division but still have questions on defense, and the Green Bay Packers will be breaking in a new starting quarterback for the first time in 15 years.
The division is there for the taking if the Bears' new pieces can seamlessly fit together.
4. Denver Broncos, AFC West
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Key offseason additions: HC Sean Payton, RT Mike McGlinchey, DT Zach Allen
Swapping out Nathaniel Hackett for Payton was by far the biggest and best move the Denver Broncos made this offseason, as Payton certainly wasn't shy about expressing his feelings on how bad of a job his predecessor did last season.
Opinions and not-so-subtle jabs aside, there's no denying going from a first-time head coach to a Super Bowl-winning one is a major upgrade that will impact the Broncos' record at the end of the season.
Denver also did a good job of getting better in the trenches. Right tackle has been an issue for them for several years and they managed to land one of the best ones on the open market in McGlinchey. While defensive tackle Dre'Mont Jones was a big loss, the Broncos managed to replace him with Allen, which Pro Football Focus' metrics suggest is an upgrade.
"Former Broncos interior defender Dre'Mont Jones signed for big money in Seattle, but he earned a sub-60.0 PFF grade in each of the past two seasons," PFF's Josh Liskiewitz wrote. "To take his place, Denver signed Zach Allen away from Arizona for less money than Jones got from Seattle, and Allen ranked 15th in PFF WAR in 2022 while Jones ranked 60th."
QB situation: After what was undoubtedly the worst season of Russell Wilson's career, the big question here is, can Payton fix Wilson?
As the old saying goes, "a quarterback's best friend is a good running game" and the head coach has talked about how he wants to improve on Denver's rushing attack, which ranked 21st with about 114 yards per game last season. That's a similar system to what Wilson had success in with the Seattle Seahawks, and his passing should improve with better protection.
Mr. Unlimited was sacked 55 times in 2022, the most among any quarterback in the league and the most of his 11-year career, and he was brought down on 10.2 percent of his dropbacks, which was the second-highest rate during his time in the NFL.
More play-action passes should bring those figures down as Wilson ranked 31st among quarterbacks last year with a 21.3 percent play-action rate and is at his best on such play calls, according to NBC Sports' Denny Carter.
AFC West outlook: The biggest reason the Broncos aren't higher on this list is because the AFC West is one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. As the defending Super Bowl champions, it's hard to imagine another team unseating the Kansas City Chiefs, especially with the best quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes.
The Los Angeles Chargers have a quality signal-caller as well in Justin Herbert, a slew of offensive weapons and Pro Bowlers on all three levels of their defense. While the Las Vegas Raiders have question marks, they aren't exactly an easy out for a projected last-place team with the talent they have on offense led by 2022 All-Pros Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.
3. Cleveland Browns, AFC North
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Key offseason additions: DC Jim Schwartz, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Za'Darius Smith
Unlike a lot of teams on this list, the Cleveland Browns had a rather quiet offseason, but there was a common theme to the moves they made; improving their run defense, as the Browns ranked 25th in that department a year ago.
When he's been either the head coach or defensive coordinator, Schwartz's defenses have ranked in the top eight for rushing yards allowed nine times in 19 years, including six top-five finishes, per Pro Football Reference. He's also been in the top half of the league 12 times.
The additions of Tomlinson (6'3" and 325 pounds) and Siaki Ika (6'3" and 335 pounds) bring some much-need size to Cleveland's defensive line. The veteran has carved out a career as a gap-filler while the rookie has a similar skill set and was the best nose tackle in the draft on B/R's Big Board.
Not to mention Smith, who brings over 68 career tackles for loss including 15 last year, and his 54.5 career sacks should be a nice complement on the other side of Myles Garrett.
QB situation: In his most recent full season in 2020 with the Houston Texans, Deshaun Watson threw for over 4,800 yards and had an impressive touchdown-to-interception ratio of 33-to-7 while adding 444 yards and three scores with his legs.
Then in March 2021, a string of lawsuits began. Twenty-four women sued Watson, alleging sexual assault or misconduct during massage therapy sessions. The Texans ruled Watson out for every game of the 2021 season before trading him to the Browns in March 2022. Watson was then suspended for the first 11 games of 2022.
While he didn't look like the 2020 version of himself in six games with Cleveland last season, Watson will get a full year to build chemistry with his teammates, especially wide receiver Amari Cooper, who is widely considered one of the league's best route-runners. That added time, without interruptions, should pay dividends for the Browns offense and allow Watson to thrive.
AFC North outlook: Similar to the AFC West, the AFC North is a brutal division.
The Cincinnati Bengals have become one of the best teams in the conference ever since Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase reunited in the pros, participating in the last two AFC Championship Games.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have been a perpetual playoff team since Lamar Jackson arrived, and the Pittsburgh Steelers could be a pesky team now that Kenny Pickett gets to be the starter for the entire campaign.
2. Atlanta Falcons, NFC South
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While three NFC South teams finished 7-10 last season, the Atlanta Falcons were chosen since they had the highest draft pick before trades in April, meaning the league's tiebreaker rules slated them in last place.
Key offseason additions: S Jessie Bates III, RB Bijan Robinson, DT David Onyemata
To put it simply, the Falcons were busy this offseason as the three players listed above are just the tip of the iceberg.
Atlanta ranked tied for 24th with just 10 interceptions last season and was in the bottom half of the league for passes defended (69), which is where Bates' 14 career interceptions and 43 PBUs should come in handy. Also, he had four picks last year, which would have led the Falcons by two, and swatted away eight passes, which would've ranked second.
Sticking on the defensive side of the ball, Onyemata's 23 career sacks, including five in 2022, should provide some much-needed help for fellow defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. Also, 15-year veteran Calais Campbell brings leadership and 99 career sacks to Atlanta's defensive line.
If that's not enough, Bud Dupree's 46.5 sacks now factor into the equation for the Dirty Birds, too.
Offensively, the Falcons were quieter as Robinson's arrival was the most notable addition, giving the team a plethora of offensive weapons with fellow running backs Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson in addition to pass-catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Oh, and free-agent wide receiver Mack Hollins is coming off a career year with the Las Vegas Raiders.
QB situation: Desmond Ridder's development will be the biggest hurdle Atlanta has to clear in its quest to go from worst to first. Ridder made four starts as a rookie, completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 708 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions.
To put it simply, the Falcons are going to need more than 177 passing yards per game to be successful on offense this season, but the 2022 third-round pick should be more comfortable in the system now that he's the unquestioned starter to begin the campaign. It's just a matter of how quickly he can develop.
NFC South outlook: Seeing as all four teams finished below .500 last season and the division winner, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, lost the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady, it's safe to say the NFC South will likely be the weakest division in the NFL this season. That, plus the offseason additions, is a big reason the Falcons are No. 2 on this list.
The Falcons' biggest competition will likely be the New Orleans Saints, who they lost to twice a year ago. Getting over that hump will be paramount, but Atlanta did make more improvements to its roster in free agency and the draft than New Orleans did.
1. New York Jets, AFC East
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Key offseason additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Allen Lazard
It takes watching maybe five minutes of Hard Knocks to know who the New York Jets' biggest offseason acquisition is. New York was pretty much just a quarterback away from being a playoff team a year ago, and it added arguably the most talented player at the position in league history with Rodgers.
The four-time MVP also reunites with the offensive coordinator who helped put two awards on his mantle, Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers averaged roughly 4,139 yards and 37 touchdowns per year during his three seasons with Hackett in Green Bay, and the quarterback played a role in bringing over one of his favorite targets to the Big Apple.
Lazard had 100 catches for 1,301 yards and 14 touchdowns over the last two seasons, making him a great complement to reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson.
While Cook was added late in the game, he brings even more offensive firepower, eclipsing 1,100 rushing yards in each of the last four campaigns while also adding nearly 1,400 yards as a receiver during that time frame. He just needs to stay healthy but even if he can't, Breece Hall has a chance to become a top-tier back, and Michael Carter is a good third option.
QB situation: Out of any team on this list, the Jets have by far the best quarterback situation. Rodgers' talent speaks for itself and it's just a matter of how quickly he can jell with his new teammates. However, bringing over familiar faces like Lazard and Randall Cobb should help ease that transition.
AFC East outlook: While all of the above is true, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills pose a significant threat to New York's mission.
The Bills have won three division titles in a row and are expected to be a Super Bowl contender once again this season. Buffalo's defense was also only half a point per game worse than Gang Green's in 2022, making for a couple of highly anticipated matchups in 2023. The season opener on Monday Night Football can't come soon enough.
The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are not to be forgotten either, seeing as Miami was a playoff team a year ago and Bill Belichick is still roaming New England's sidelines.
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