Fantasy Football 2023: Mock Draft Analysis and Selection Strategy
The utility of a mock draft changes over the course of the pre-draft season for fantasy football managers.
Early on, mocks offer an opportunity to experiment with different processes and lineup structures. But at this juncture, with the NFL preseason slate finished and opening kick of the 2023 campaign barrelling toward us, mock drafts simply prepare you for the real thing.
This is when you get comfortable making picks on the clock and against other managers. Ideally, you head into the mock with the same strategy you plan on using at your actual talent grab, so you can see how things play out and whether you need to tweak your formula at all.
To give you an idea of what lies ahead in the final stages of your pre-draft journey, we'll lay out a two-round, 12-team mock using point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, spotlight a few of the most notable picks and finally lay out some strategies based on your selection spot.
Mock Draft
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Round 1
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
4. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
5. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
6. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
8. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
9. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
10. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
11. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
12. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 2
13. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
14. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
15. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
16. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
17. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
18. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
19. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
20. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
22. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
23. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
24. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Notable Picks
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This mock, compiled with FantasyPros' mock draft simulator, threw some interesting curveballs almost from the very start.
This is as early as you'll find Nick Chubb (No. 5) going in any PPR format. While he is one of the most reliable rushers around—four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons—his limited involvement hurts him in PPR formats. Over his five-year career, he's only averaged 23.8 receptions for 198 yards while totaling four touchdowns. The CBS Sports crew recently held a 12-team PPR mock, and Chubb was the No. 11 pick. He was by far the biggest reach in this mock.
Bijan Robinson sliding to the No. 10 pick felt notable, too. If you want Atlanta's all-purpose rookie running back, you'll almost assuredly need to take him sooner than this. His average draft position (ADP) is No. 7, per FantasyPros—the same place he went in that CBS mock—so getting him at No. 10 could be a big value.
In the second round, the one pick that caught our eye was Najee Harris at No. 20.
That's earlier than his ADP (No. 25) and way earlier than he went in that CBS mock (No. 46). He has always held more value in volume (579 carries in two seasons) than efficiency (career 3.9 yards per carry), and there are reasons to worry about a potential reduction in volume. Pittsburgh's offense could grow more pass-happy if second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett takes a leap, and Harris could be pushed for carries (and snaps) by sophomore running back Jaylen Warren, who has more explosion as both a ball-carrier and a pass-catcher.
Selection Strategy
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Aim At—But Don't Reach For—Running Backs Early
While the NFL might be collectively devaluing the running back position, fantasy managers shouldn't do the same. A featured back remains invaluable in fantasy football, since the mid-tier has become so muddled with timeshare backfields and more pass-heavy offenses.
No running backs should bump Justin Jefferson out of the No. 1 spot, but if you have a pick in the 2-through-6 range, try targeting Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Bijan Robinson. They'll be heavily featured in their respective offenses—as runners and receivers—and should give you a bigger lift at the position than, say, taking Cooper Kupp over a second-round receiver would.
Don't divert from the rankings too much in the first round, though. As this mock showed, overdrafting a back like Nick Chubb could cost you a shot at someone like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill or Stefon Diggs.
Pass on the Top-Tier Passers
It almost feels cliched to recommend waiting for a quarterback, but there's a reason that advice has been repeated ad nauseam. As good as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are, the opportunity cost of taking any of them—maybe in the second round, definitely no later than the third—is too great when you could load up on skill players in the first three or four rounds and still land a difference-making signal-caller.
In our simulated mock, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Fields all went in the fourth round, while Justin Herbert was taken at the top of the fifth. This might be the position's sweet spot, since you'll get three or four high-end backs or receivers (or maybe a tight end) and still land someone with a non-zero chance of being this year's QB1 in fantasy.
Wait any longer, though, and things get dicey pretty quickly. Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson were sixth-round selections, while Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa went in the seventh. Each offers a decent amount of upside, but their downside is too risky to trust they'll be starting-caliber quarterbacks all season. If you do draft from this quartet, make sure you add a valuable backup behind them, because you might need that player in your lineup for multiple weeks.
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