Projecting Shohei Ohtani's Contract in MLB Free Agency After Angels Star's UCL Injury

A weak crop of potential free agents this offseason took a major hit on Wednesday night with the news that Shohei Ohtani has a torn UCL in his right elbow and won't pitch again this season.

Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian relayed the news after the second game of their doubleheader against the Cincinnati Reds. Ohtani, who started Game 1, in the second inning after throwing 21 pitches when he made a gesture to the dugout that something was wrong.

Minasian added the team is waiting for a second opinion before deciding if Ohtani will need to undergo Tommy John surgery. It would mark the second time in his career he's had the procedure if that ends up being the outcome.

There's no indication at this point Ohtani is going to be shut down from hitting for the rest of the season. He started the second game of the doubleheader at designated hitter, going 1-for-5 with a double.

Prior to the injury, every expectation was that Ohtani would be going to sign the richest contract in the history of North American professional sports. The current record is Patrick Mahomes' 10-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs which can be worth up to $503 million.

One MLB official told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times in April that bidding for Ohtani would likely start at $500 million and climb up to $600 million. He was turning in a season for the ages that actually made it seem like $600 million would be underselling his next contract.

Ohtani is currently hitting .304/.405/.664 with 44 homers and 17 stolen bases. He leads MLB in homers, slugging percentage, OPS (1.069) and ranks second in the AL in on-base percentage.

On the mound, the 29-year-old owns a 3.14 ERA with 167 strikeouts and 85 hits allowed in 132 innings. His 8.6 FanGraphs wins above replacement this season is already more than he had when he was the unanimous AL MVP in 2021 (8.0).

Now, though, it's impossible to say what kind of offer Ohtani might be looking at. Being a great hitter certainly gives him an incredibly high floor on a contract.

Looking at recent precedents for players at a similar age—next year will be Ohtani's age-29 season—Aaron Judge and Manny Machado were both 30 when they signed new deals with their current clubs.

Judge got a nine-year, $360 million deal from the New York Yankees coming off a historic 2022 season that saw him hit 62 homers and win AL MVP. Machado signed an 11-year, $350 million contract with the San Diego Padres coming off a runner-up finish in NL MVP voting last year.

Those players also had the benefit of playing a defensive position at a high level. Judge is primarily a right fielder, but he's been serviceable in center when the Yankees have asked him to play the premium position.

Machado would probably be regarded as the best defensive third baseman of this generation if Nolan Arenado didn't exist.

Other than seven innings across five games in the outfield during the 2021 season, Ohtani has only been in the lineup as a designated hitter when he's not pitching. If he's limited to only being a DH, would a team really want to spend $35-40 million per season on him?

It's not implausible because Ohtani has continued to improve as a hitter over the course of his MLB career. He's also a great athlete who could learn a defensive position if he wanted to.

Playing the outfield would seem unlikely because of the stress throwing from one of those positions can put on an elbow. Bryce Harper is a good example because he's played 15 games at first base for the Philadelphia Phillies this season after he had Tommy John surgery in November.

One thing that does work in Ohtani's favor is teams know he can still be a high-impact hitter after Tommy John surgery. He previously had the procedure in October 2018 and hit .286/.343/.505 in 106 games the following season.

Teams might also give consideration to Ohtani's impact as a drawing card. One study released in October 2022 by Professor Emeritus at Kansai University and economist Katsuhiro Miyamoto (h/t Dai Takegami Podziewski of MLB Trade Rumors) found Ohtani was worth $337 million last season alone between ticket and merchandise sales, sponsorships and broadcasting rights to Angels games.

Some of that novelty could wear off if Ohtani either doesn't pitch again or is strictly limited in how much—and how often—he pitches.

A second Tommy John surgery wouldn't necessarily be the end of Ohtani as a pitcher, but the odds of him being as effective in that role as he has been are very long.

As Dayn Perry of CBS Sports pointed out when the Texas Rangers announced Jacob deGrom was going to have his second Tommy John procedure, it "typically entails a longer recovery period" than normal.

The best recent example of a pitcher succeeding at a high level after a second elbow reconstruction surgery is Nathan Eovaldi. He went under the knife for the second time in 2016, missed all of the following year and returned in 2018.

Eovaldi made 28 appearances in his first season back, including six in the playoffs to help the Boston Red Sox win the World Series. He finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting with the Red Sox in 2021 and was named to the All-Star team this season with the Texas Rangers.

Unfortunately, arm injuries remain a problem for Eovaldi. He hasn't pitched since July 18 due to a strained forearm.

It's worth pointing out that Eovaldi went nine years between Tommy John surgeries in 2007 and 2016. Ohtani, if he has the procedure, will have had two within five years of each other.

We also have a recent example of teams shying away from a major investment in a player because of concerns about his physical. Carlos Correa had deals with the San Francisco Giants (13 years, $350 million) and New York Mets (12 years, $315 million) fall apart.

Correa wound up getting a six-year, $200 million deal from the Minnesota Twins with options that could push it to $270 million over 10 years.

This goes back to the issue of positional value because Correa is a shortstop. Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera are the only current players who play first base or DH with contracts of at least $200 million. Cabrera's deal was signed in 2014 and kicked in starting with the 2016 season. Votto signed his extension with the Cincinnati Reds in 2012 and it took effect in 2015.

Given all of the questions that can be asked about Ohtani's future as a pitcher at this point, the type of deal he might be looking at is in the range of eight to 10 years ranging from $280 to $400 million in total value.

This would put him at $35-40 million in average annual salary, in line with what Judge and Mike Trout earn. A deal worth $400 million would rank second in MLB, behind Trout's $426.5 million contract with the Angels.