2024 NFL Draft QBs Who Would Jump Up Rankings If Caleb Williams Returns to USC
With or without USC's Caleb Williams, the 2024 NFL draft's quarterback class has the potential to be the best in the last decade, although that group has a lot to prove between now and next April.
As it currently stands, the 2020 class looks like one for the ages, with Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts leading the way. But everyone sees those players as what they are now, not what they were coming into the NFL.
Questions existed about each of them three years ago.
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Burrow posted one all-time great season at LSU, but he struggled throughout the rest of his collegiate career. Tagovailoa's injury history raised significant concerns. Scouts questioned Herbert's leadership ability and consistency in a simplified offense. Hurts fell to the second round, only to find the right spot to be properly developed as an all-around signal-caller.
To accurately project a class of NFL prospects, one must see their potential. The next crop finds itself higher on the scale of upside than most.
Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is arguably the best prospect since Andrew Luck. His natural feel for the game, creativity and playmaking skills are extraordinary.
However, the underclassman and his family understand the leverage he currently holds in a world where NIL deals can offset the immediate loss of an NFL rookie contract.
"He's got two shots at the apple," Williams' father, Carl, said in an interview with GQ's Sam Schube. "So if there's not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school."
The family also understands their son's position since he's the heavy betting favorite to be selected No. 1 overall next year.
"The funky thing about the NFL draft process is, he'd almost be better off not being drafted than being drafted first. The system is completely backwards," Carl Williams said. "The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league—because of their desire for parity—gets the first pick. So it's the gift and the curse."
Williams could decide he doesn't need to declare for the NFL draft after his third season. He can always go back to USC for another year instead of walking into a meat grinder.
"Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted," Carl Williams said. "The organizations matter."
The elder Williams isn't wrong. So much of a player's success is dependent on the situation in which he is placed.
Williams could very well decide to spend another year in Southern California, make millions in NIL deals and enjoy college life. There's nothing wrong with that approach, although he would be one year further removed from his second NFL contract.
Even with Williams' NFL draft decision uncertain for the time being, the overall potential within college football's quarterback landscape is immense. At least five more signal-callers already find themselves in the first-round conversation with the season now in full swing.
North Carolina's Drake Maye would be the runaway favorite for the No. 1 overall pick if not for Williams. The reigning ACC Player of the Year is still in that conversation even if Williams does decide to declare, which is why the upcoming class is so intriguing.
From a physical perspective, the 6'4", 230-pound Maye is everything a team wants in a quarterback. The redshirt sophomore can layer throws to all three levels. He even led the Tar Heels last season with 698 rushing yards.
According to Pro Football Focus, Maye's 45 big-time throws last season led all FBS quarterbacks, and he recorded a 96.1 passing grade on throws 10 or more yards downfield. Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen said Maye "also plays with an edge to him—both in terms of managing pressure and being fearless about testing tight windows."
While Williams' creativity is rightfully lauded, Maye's ability to work in chaos is his greatest strength.
"He just sort of plays under duress and is really productive under duress," an anonymous scout told ESPN's Pete Thamel. "They don't protect him as well as other places, so you see him under duress and he makes plays. That enhances him at our level."
Big, athletic, tough, unflappable, top-shelf arm talent and seeing the entire field portend a future franchise quarterback.
Shedeur Sanders is the new guy on the block as the FCS transfer with plenty to prove despite thriving at Jackson State. The former SWAC Offensive Player of the Year is now at Colorado after following his father, Deion, to the Pac-12.
His debut at the highest level of college football couldn't have gone much better. Against the TCU Horned Frogs, who played in January's National Championship Game against the Georgia Bulldogs, Sanders set a Buffaloes program record by going 38-of-47 for 510 yards and four touchdowns.
The 6'2", 215-pound maestro worked from the pocket, took what the defense gave him, allowed his receivers to go to work because of good ball placement and even made some excellent throws when working outside of the pocket.
Amazingly, Sanders wasn't thrilled with his performance.
"I feel like I missed a lot of stuff," he told reporters Tuesday. "I could have had bigger numbers and stuff like that. I watched the game. I seen all the bad clips yesterday and stuff, and it left a bad taste in my mouth, really. So I'm must motivated to get out there and have more perfection and just a better game."
Sanders always had the tools to succeed at a high level. Continued excellence throughout the season will quell any questions about the level of competition he faced at Jackson State.
Texas' Quinn Ewers may be the biggest wild card among the draft-eligible quarterbacks. He could be a first-round quarterback next spring or find his way to the bench before the end of the '23 campaign.
Whatever the case, he must be acclimated to working within a system. Yet a team can't do so at the cost of his natural instincts.
"Ewers is unpolished, daring and outrageously talented as a thrower," Klassen said. "He's a wild horse who needs to be tamed and molded into a consistent professional passer."
No one can deny the 20-year-old's ability as a thrower and playmaker. In 10 games last season, Ewers started to show what made him the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2021 high school class.
This fall, the 6'2", 195-pound underclassman must improve his decision-making and mechanics while simultaneously keeping uber-recruit Arch Manning off the field. If he does so, Ewers will earn first-round consideration.
Duke's Riley Leonard is different. High-level quarterback recruits typically also excel in baseball, particularly shortstop. But the 6'4" Leonard is the son of a four-year Division I basketball player and received significant interest in that sport.
"I was hearing from like 50 coaches for basketball," Leonard said, per the Post and Courier's Andrew Miller.
The two-sport standout seriously considered playing basketball at the collegiate level before ultimately deciding on football.
"I felt for a long time that he had a quarterback's body," Leonard father's, Chad, told Miller. "His personality was built for the quarterback position. He's been a quarterback since he was little. The position comes natural to him."
The 20-year-old's athleticism and point-guard mentality work hand-in-hand on the football field. He needs to improve his consistency, particularly with ball placement. But Leonard is entrenched against ACC competition, which should naturally help his game to grow.
Meanwhile, Joe Milton III's physical tools are without peer. The sixth-year senior is finally getting the chance to run an offense after transferring from Michigan and then playing behind Hendon Hooker the past two years.
The 6'5", 235-pound Milton is blessed with size, athleticism and arguably the strongest arm in all of college football. However, he's never been consistent enough to become a full-time starter.
Through self-scouting, the 23-year-old attacked his weaknesses this offseason. Milton detailed how he worked on his lower-body mechanics to alleviate pressure on his arm and create more consistency with his ball placement.
Today's NFL front offices and coaches aren't necessarily looking for polished prospects. They are more than willing to build around quarterbacks with massive upside as long as those players are willing to put in the time and effort to properly develop.
Oregon's Bo Nix, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and LSU's Jayden Daniels are other quarterbacks who may be on the outside of the first-round conversation at the moment, but they'll make their cases throughout the season.
Young, talented signal-callers with NFL potential are all across the college football landscape this year. While Williams is the headliner, other potential stars are also ready to shine brightly.
Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.
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