Ranking MLB's 6 'Real' Contenders for the 2023 World Series
With just two months remaining until the 2023 World Series, MLB's wheat has separated from its chaff.
There are 18 teams left with at least a realistic chance to make the 12-team postseason field—and anything can happen in October—but it feels like there are six legitimate candidates to win it all: Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Los Angeles (NL), Tampa Bay and Texas. They have the best World Series odds, currently boast the best records in the majors and have generally established themselves as this year's best teams. (Although Seattle has been making a push into that conversation over the past month.)
When stacking those contenders up against one another, biggest weaknesses are arguably more important than biggest strengths.
Every team that wins 90-plus games can hit, pitch, field and run to at least a respectable degree. But can they get on base and/or homer from anywhere in the order? Do they have a deep stable of reliable arms, both in the rotation and in the bullpen? Can they avoid running into bad outs on the basepaths while also supplying the glovework necessary to save runs on defense?
Those things can push a team from one of the contenders to the favorite to win it all—or, conversely, knock them out of the running if they don't check all of those boxes.
So, let's break the top six World Series contenders down into six categories—contact hitting/OBP, power hitting, baserunning, fielding, starting rotation and bullpen—and give them a grade for each in an effort to figure out who is best suited to take the crown.
Statistics current through the start of play Tuesday, unless otherwise noted. World Series odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Other Viable Contenders
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10. Minnesota Twins (+2000 to win World Series)
Many view the Twins as an also-ran—a team that will earn the AL's No. 3 seed for winning the AL Central, but one that has minimal realistic hope of getting through (based on current seeding) Seattle, Texas, Baltimore and Atlanta/Los Angeles to win the whole thing. But Minnesota has arguably the best starting rotation, if not the best overall pitching staff in the majors, as well as quite a few batters who can mash. The Twins will have the worst odds to win the American League, but they could do it.
8b. Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
8a. Seattle Mariners (+1700)
Perhaps they'll both leapfrog Houston and both make the postseason, but it's shaping up to be quite the race between Seattle and Toronto for the AL's No. 6 seed. Of the two, Seattle feels more dangerous because it has been unbelievably hot as of late, winning 20 of 25 games to surge back to within serious striking distance for the AL West crown. But both squads have great quartets atop their starting rotation and eight players with at least 10 home runs. Either one could do serious damage.
7. Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
Including these honorable mentions, the breakdown of the top 10 is seven teams from the AL and just three in the NL, as Atlanta and Los Angeles are clearly head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the National League. However, the Phillies are no strangers to going from wild card to World Series after getting there as the No. 6 seed last October. Bryce Harper is starting to hit for power again after a rough first half of the season, and Trea Turner may have finally turned the corner, batting .365 over his last 16 games. If those expensive former Washington Nationals continue to pull their weight, the Phillies have good enough pitching to potentially make another miraculous postseason run.
6. Tampa Bay Rays
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World Series Odds: +800 (tied for third-shortest odds)
Contact Hitting/OBP: With Wander Franco's .281 batting average and .344 on-base percentage factored in, Tampa Bay entered Tuesday ranked sixth in the majors in both of those categories. But take his numbers out of the equation—since we have no idea if he'll play again this season—and the Rays become a bit more pedestrian at the plate, weighed down by a handful of regulars hitting in the .210-.227 range. They do still have Yandy Díaz vying for an AL batting title, though, as well as Harold Ramírez batting north of .300 for the year. Grade: B+
Power Hitting: Tampa Bay sits only one home run behind the Angels for the top spot in the American League. But the Rays reached 100 home runs before any other MLB team got to 90, and then they watched the field catch up and eventually pass them. Still, 11 Rays have hit at least seven home runs, and eight of them have clubbed at least 16. Grade: A-
Baserunning: Even without counting Franco's 30 steals, the Rays are top 10 in the majors in that department, and they rank among the best, most aggressive baserunning teams. Though Taylor Walls is currently on the IL with an oblique strain, he and Josh Lowe have been two of the most valuable baserunners in MLB, going a combined 44-for-47 in stolen base attempts and never shy about taking extra bases. Jose Siri and Luke Raley have also been major assets as far as extra bases taken is concerned. Grade: A
Fielding: We have to make one final with/without Franco note here, because he was well on his way to winning the AL Gold Glove for shortstops. With him leading the way, the Rays were roughly average on defense. Without him, they might have the worst defense among playoff teams—which isn't meant as a knock on touted rookie Osleivis Basabe, but rather a testament to the value Franco added on defense. Until Walls is able to return, catcher Christian Bethancourt might be their only above-average fielder. Grade: C-
Starting Rotation: Well, what's left of it? Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are all out for at least this season, if not 2024 as well, after each undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Rays also knew before the season began that Shane Baz wouldn't be pitching in 2023. But at least they added Aaron Civale ahead of the trade deadline and have a solid top three between him, Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow. Beyond that trio, though, yikes. If they end up with a wild-card spot and need all three games to advance to the ALDS, they might have to send Erasmo Ramírez out there for Game 1. Grade: C-
Bullpen: Because of all the injuries to the starting rotation, few teams have taxed their bullpen quite like the Rays have. To their credit, though, nine of their 10 most-used relievers have posted a sub-3.50 ERA when used in a relief role. Several of those relievers are no longer on the current roster, but between Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Shawn Armstrong, Colin Poche, Jake Diekman and Robert Stephenson, it's hard to argue with the overall strength of this bullpen. Grade: A-
5. Baltimore Orioles
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World Series Odds: +900 (fifth-shortest odds)
Contact Hitting/OBP: Early in the year, the Orioles ranked among the best in the business in this department, batting .256 in March/April while drawing walks at one of the highest rates. But as the temperature climbed, their patience at the plate waned. (Aside from Adley Rutschman, who trails only Shohei Ohtani for the AL lead in walks drawn.) They now rank 17th in OBP after posting marks of .309 and .304 in June and July, respectively. Grade: C+
Power Hitting: The O's are middle of the MLB pack with 145 home runs, but they do rack up quite a few extra base hits, ranking third in doubles and tied for fifth in triples. That has resulted in an impressive slugging percentage. And they do have eight players with at least 10 home runs. They just don't have anyone with more than 21 dingers. It's one of those lineups where you don't explicitly fear one or two hitters, but where you shouldn't try to cruise control your way through the bottom of the order. Grade: B
Baserunning: Once again, early in the year, Baltimore was one of the best here. The O's stole five bases in each of their first two games of the season and had swiped a total of 25 bags in 28 attempts in their first 17 games. Since then, they've stolen only 58 bases in 75 attempts across 107 games, as they have gotten much more conservative in between pitches. Once the ball is in play, though, they have been aggressively successful at taking extra bases. (That's one of the benefits of having a lineup where almost everyone is under 30 years old.) Grade: A-
Fielding: Baltimore certainly hasn't been bad on defense. In fact, only Arizona (42) has committed fewer errors this season than Baltimore has (50). Still, defense hasn't been quite the same strength for the O's as it was last year, when Ramón Urías won a Gold Glove at third base, Rutschman's defensive metrics were off the chart and Cedric Mullins was healthy enough to play almost every day, providing a lot of value in center. Still, Baltimore remains better in the field than most. Grade: A-
Starting Rotation: Undeniably, one of the biggest questions heading into October is whether Baltimore has good enough starting pitching to get the job done. The O's traded for Jack Flaherty, resulting thus far in one solid start, one OK start and one disastrous start. Grayson Rodriguez has been much better since returning from his midseason stint in Triple-A, but we'll see if he can continue to lower what is now a 5.44 ERA. Kyle Bradish has had a strong campaign, but it sure will feel like a disadvantage for Baltimore to toss him out there for Game 1 of the ALDS against someone like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Pablo López, Luis Castillo or Tyler Glasnow. Grade: D+
Bullpen: While the rotation is a huge question mark for Baltimore, the bullpen is not. Save for one implosion a few weeks ago in a loss to Houston, Félix Bautista continues to put up dominant numbers as the closer, while Yennier Cano has been every bit as stingy in the primary set-up role. They did unfortunately lose their top lefty when Danny Coulombe hit the IL with biceps tendinitis earlier this month, but he'll hopefully be back well before October. The Orioles don't have nearly as much established, reliable depth in the bullpen as the Houston Astros, but if they can take a lead into the seventh inning, they'll likely hang onto it. Grade: A
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4. Texas Rangers
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World Series Odds: +1000 (sixth-shortest odds)
Contact Hitting/OBP: It's hard to argue with Texas' bats, as the Rangers lead the AL in both batting average and on-base percentage (and trail only Atlanta for the MLB lead in both). Corey Seager is the brightest star, well on his way to an AL batting crown with a .341 average. But the only regular hitting below .250 is Robbie Grossman, and he's played in only 35 of their last 60 games, often as a pinch hitter. Grade: A+
Power Hitting: It's a bit surprising that Texas only ranks third in the AL and fifth in the majors with 173 home runs, given the amount of pop throughout the lineup. Adolis García (31) is the only Rangers slugger currently north of 25 home runs, but Seager (23) will get there soon, Josh Jung (22, but out for probably another month with a fractured thumb) was on track to get there, and five other Rangers have already hit double digits. Grade: A-
Baserunning: On the one hand, Texas has grounded into fewer double plays (68) than any other team. On the other hand, the Rangers have only stolen 65 bases, and they take extra bases at nearly the lowest rate in the majors. All told, their baserunning grade on FanGraphs is 27th overall, the worst among likely playoff teams. If they win the World Series, it won't be with small ball. Grade: C-
Fielding: What the Rangers lack in bases stolen/taken, they make up for with runs saved on defense. Their overall defensive efficiency and fielding percentage rank among the best in the bigs. Marcus Semien is likely headed for the second Gold Glove of his career, and Jonah Heim may well get one, too. The only considerable negative on defense has been Grossman, who, again, isn't playing as much as of late anyway. Grade: A+
Starting Rotation: Goodness knows the Rangers have spent enough on starting pitching. After adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline, they now have eight pitchers making at least $10 million this season (if you count Jake Odorizzi). But at least it has worked out for them. They have MLB's lowest starting pitching ERA (3.65) for the season, and have been especially lethal thus far in August (2.43), even after recently getting shelled and swept by the Brewers. Grade: A+
Bullpen: Relief pitching was a massive weakness for the Rangers until they traded for both Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton, who have given them a combined 1.69 ERA across 32 innings of work. But beyond that duo, things are still quite iffy, particularly with closer Will Smith racking up a 15.19 ERA over his last seven appearances. It wouldn't be a surprise if Chapman usurps that job before October. Grade: C
3. Houston Astros
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World Series Odds: +800 (tied for third-shortest odds)
Contact Hitting/OBP: Because Jose Altuve has missed more than half of the season and because the Astros didn't start playing Yainer Diaz on a near everyday basis until mid-June, their slightly-better-than-average marks in batting average (.253) and OBP (.325) are deceptively low. When they're at full strength and putting their best batting foot forward, they have nine regulars batting at least .245. Grade: B
Power Hitting: Though Houston (165) is a far cry from Atlanta (237) for the MLB lead in home runs, the Astros certainly aren't lacking for power hitters—especially after José Abreu recovered from his atrocious 50-game start to the season. Abreu is currently on the IL with lingering back issues, but he is now one of 10 Houston hitters with at least nine home runs. In that club, Altuve (.519), Kyle Tucker (.524), Chas McCormick (.544), Diaz (.544) and Yordan Alvarez (.556) are each slugging well north of .500. Grade: B+
Baserunning: The Astros are one of just three teams (along with Cincinnati and Tampa Bay) with at least five players who have stolen 10-plus bases this season. Granted, Jeremy Peña is a woefully inefficient 10-for-17 and is the only player in the majors with at least 10 swipes and a success rate below 63 percent, but he still counts. Overall, though, Houston isn't particularly aggressive or efficient on the basepaths. At least the Astros don't run into many outs, but it's because they don't often attempt to take extra bases—they're tied with Texas for second-lowest XBT% in majors. Grade: B-
Fielding: Houston has plus gloves all over the place. Jake Meyers and Martín Maldonado provide minimal (if any) value on offense, but they are clear assets at center field and catcher, respectively. Peña hasn't been as good at shortstop as he was last year, but he is the AL's reigning Gold Glover there. Alex Bregman is solid at the hot corner. And Mauricio Dubón is probably the leading candidate for this year's Gold Glove for AL utilityman. Grade: A
Starting Rotation: The Astros have been rolling with a six-man rotation since re-acquiring Justin Verlander and since getting José Urquidy back from more than three months on the IL, and it bears watching how they decide to line up their postseason rotation beyond Verlander and Framber Valdez. Cristian Javier has been struggling for a solid two months now, but they might be hesitant to let rookies Hunter Brown or J.P. France start in October, with each having already eclipsed 100 innings for the season. The Astros almost have too many viable options, which is an envious position. Grade: B+
Bullpen: Houston already had a strong bullpen, but trading for Kendall Graveman really pushed it over the top. The Astros now have Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Graveman all with a year-to-date ERA of 3.15 or better. Rafael Montero has also been drastically better since entering the All-Star Break with a 6.57 ERA. And between Javier, Urquidy, Brown and France, they're probably going to temporarily convert two starters to long relievers. There isn't a single glaring weakness in the bunch. Grade: A+
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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World Series Odds: +400 (second-shortest odds)
Contact Hitting/OBP: The Dodgers are batting a mediocre .251 as a team, but at least they draw walks at nearly the highest rate in the majors. As a result, they have the third-best OBP and have been able to manufacture a boatload of runs. Fun fact on that front: Max Muncy is the only player in the majors with at least 20 runs who has scored more runs (68) than he has hits (67). Grade: A
Power Hitting: There's plenty of pop throughout Los Angeles' lineup. Mookie Betts set a career high with 35 home runs last year, but he's currently at 34 and is going to blow that personal record out of the water. Muncy (29) also might surpass his career-best mark of 36. And while neither J.D. Martinez (25) nor Freddie Freeman (23) will approach their single-season records, they could both eclipse 30. Beyond that quartet, Will Smith, James Outman, Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward are all in double digits. Grade: A+
Baserunning: The Dodgers aren't a particularly aggressive running team, but they are savvy on the basepaths. They don't often run into dumb outs, and they sort of sneak-attack you with stolen bases, with Freeman (16-of-17), Outman (14-of-16) and Taylor (12-of-13) all efficient threats. Grade: B+
Fielding: Considering they've been playing a career right fielder in the middle infield for a good chunk of the season, the Dodgers have been surprisingly better than average on defense. There might not be a single Gold Glove finalist (let alone winner) in the bunch, but there's no one who's really hurting the team on defense. They're just kind of above-average across the board. Grade: B+
Starting Rotation: If nothing else changes on the injury front in the next six weeks, the Dodgers would enter the postseason with a rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn. If they continue to get the version of Lynn who has posted a 1.44 ERA in four starts since the trade deadline, they'll be in great shape to win the whole enchilada. There's also a chance that Walker Buehler—who hasn't pitched since June 2022 after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery—could make it back in time for the playoffs. That would be quite the late boost for a staff that currently has 13 pitchers on the IL. Grade: B
Bullpen: Quite the mixed bag here. Eleven Dodgers have logged at least 15 innings of relief work this season. Five of them have an ERA below 2.50, while the other six are north of 4.00. They traded for Joe Kelly to hopefully add one more reliable arm to the equation, but he has already become one of those many arms on the IL, joining Shelby Miller (2.40 ERA) there. We'll see how far the Dodgers can stretch their main quartet of Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Ryan Brasier and Evan Phillips in the postseason. Grade: B
1. Atlanta Braves
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World Series Odds: +330 (shortest odds)
Contact Hitting/OBP: The Braves lead the majors in both batting average and on-base percentage. Ronald Acuña Jr. is the heavy lifter in the bunch, but there's no weak link in this chain. All 10 players with at least 150 plate appearances are hitting at least .250 and get on base at a clip of .310 or better. Grade: A+
Power Hitting: Atlanta has completely lapped the field in this department. With 237 home runs, it has 43 more than the next-closest team. Matt Olson is the primary slugger with 43 of them, but Austin Riley (29), Ozzie Albies (28) and Acuña (28) are easily going to eclipse 30, Marcell Ozuna (26) will likely get there as well, and outfielders aren't exactly cheating in when Sean Murphy (20) and Eddie Rosario (19) step to the plate. Grade: A++
Baserunning: With an NL-best 56 stolen bases, Acuña single-handedly ensures the Braves get no worse than a B here. They rank eighth on FanGraphs in value added from baserunning, with players not named Acuña converting on 45 of 52 steal attempts. Per Baseball Reference, they lead the majors in extra bases taken. Grade: A
Fielding: Atlanta is pretty run of the mill here. Not bad, but not great. They're solid up the middle with Sean Murphy at catcher, Orlando Arcia at shortstop and Michael Harris II in center. But in terms of overall defensive efficiency, fielding percentage, outfield assists, defensive runs saved, etc. they're average across the board. Grade: C+
Starting Rotation: Bit of an incomplete grade here as Atlanta is still waiting for Kyle Wright to return from nearly four months on the IL. Even without him, though, a postseason rotation of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder would be no fun for any opponent to face. Grade: A-
Bullpen: Relief pitching has felt at times (mostly back in May) like Atlanta's glaring Achilles' heel, but the overall numbers have become quite respectable. Only the Yankees (3.20) have a lower bullpen ERA than Atlanta (3.43), as the reliever who was devastating Atlanta early in the year (A.J. Minter) has been drastically improved with a 1.37 ERA over his last 30 appearances. Closer Raisel Iglesias has also been lights out with a 0.95 ERA over his last 20 appearances. Grade: A-
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