Why Every NFL Team Could Finish in Last Place in 2023
It's that point of eternal optimism on the NFL calendar. So let's be pessimistic.
As the preseason surges on, it's easy to see how most teams could make a run if everything goes right. But it's just as easy to see how Murphy's Law could take any of them down.
With that in mind, here's why each NFL squad could finish last in their division and miss the playoffs in 2023.
AFC East
1 of 8
Buffalo Bills: With the rest of the division as strong as it is, an extended slump or significant missed time for quarterback Josh Allen would likely spoil Buffalo's promising campaign. That's especially the case if Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers come through and Bill Belichick does Bill Belichick-like things.
Miami Dolphins: Without Tagovailoa in 2022, Miami went 1-3 and averaged 16.3 points per game. If health again becomes an issue for the star quarterback this year, the Dolphins are very likely to be basement-dwellers in the East.
New England Patriots: Without improvement from Mac Jones and a core that lacks talent compared to the rest of the division, the status quo combined with no disasters for the other three teams will land the Pats in last place for the first time this century.
New York Jets: It's obviously all about Rodgers, who has never been the starting quarterback for a last-place team. But the task is tall with Buffalo, Miami and Mr. Belichick, and the 39-year-old's numbers plummeted in 2022, so it's entirely possible he's toast.
AFC North
2 of 8
Baltimore Ravens: Quarterback Lamar Jackson has failed to complete each of his last two seasons due to injury, and there's a hell of a lot of talent elsewhere in the division. Without Jackson for extended time, the Ravens are likely done.
Cincinnati Bengals: This one's pretty hard to imagine barring significant lost time for quarterback Joe Burrow. But it could also happen if Kenny Pickett puts it together in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense and the Ravens and Cleveland Browns get rolling.
Cleveland Browns: Seven or eight wins can still result in a fourth-place finish in the North, and that could easily be Cleveland's ceiling considering it's topped that total just once in the last 15 years. Plus, quarterback Deshaun Watson is a wild card who hasn't participated in a full season since 2020.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They haven't had a losing season since 2003, but they could be due with Cleveland getting Watson back for what should be a full campaign. If Pickett and the offense don't improve, last place likely awaits.
AFC South
3 of 8
Houston Texans: A team that won just three games last year looks much better on paper, but growing pains for newbies DeMeco Ryans, C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. would likely result in another fourth-place campaign for Houston.
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts were even worse than the Texans in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders in 2022, and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson appears to be less developed than Stroud.
Jacksonville Jaguars: A whole lot would have to go wrong here, particularly with emerging quarterback Trevor Lawrence. But in this league, that can absolutely happen. And these days, it's not impossible for guys like Stroud and Richardson to dominate early.
Tennessee Titans: If they start slow, wave the the white towel and trade veterans Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry to contenders. The Titans could (happily) accept a last-place finish as the rebuild begins.
AFC West
4 of 8
Denver Broncos: If Russell Wilson truly is done after an abysmal age-34 season in which he took a league-high 55 sacks and posted a horrendous 84.4 passer rating, then there's nothing Sean Payton can do to avoid a likely last-place initial campaign in Denver.
Kansas City Chiefs: There's no way the Chiefs go from first to worst unless Patrick Mahomes misses a ton of games and, sadly, that's always possible.
Las Vegas Raiders: If Jimmy Garoppolo can't remain healthy and produce consistently after a quietly strong final season with the San Francisco 49ers, the Raiders are destined for fourth place.
Los Angeles Chargers: Everything looks promising for Justin Herbert and Co. with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in town, but the Bolts still have a lot to prove and the benefit of the doubt isn't in their favor after choking in last year's playoffs. If Wilson rebounds and Garoppolo comes through, last place is easily possible.
NFC East
5 of 8
Dallas Cowboys: There's a feasible scenario in which Dak Prescott struggles to perform or stay on the field early, and the Cowboys bail on Mike McCarthy as well as the 2023 season.
New York Giants: The Giants have finished third or fourth in four of Saquon Barkley's five seasons with the team, and they're rolling the dice on both him and quarterback Daniel Jones. If the former can't stay healthy and the latter can't improve, last place is a likelihood.
Philadelphia Eagles: This would take a real unfortunate injury or two, or a shocking slump following a breakout season for quarterback Jalen Hurts. Absolutely possible, though, and there are no extremely weak links in this division.
Washington Commanders: There's considerable talent on both sides of the ball, but the Commanders face huge questions at quarterback and regarding their top defensive player, Chase Young. This remains more likely than not to be a second consecutive fourth-place campaign.
NFC North
6 of 8
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields was still one of the least-efficient passers in the sport for a team that finished with the worst record in football in 2022. Of course that could happen again.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff and Co. had a breakout season in 2022, but there's a decent chance that was an aberration for a team that hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt. If that was a fluke, the Lions could return to the basement this year.
Green Bay Packers: It's hard to believe the Packers are favored to finish last in this division for the first time since Aaron Rodgers' rookie season, but if Jordan Love doesn't come through (there's little reason to expect him too) and if Fields, the young Lions and the Minnesota Vikings don't trip up, watch for it.
Minnesota Vikings: If they don't start well after losing several key veterans in the offseason, they could bail on quarterback Kirk Cousins and throw in the towel on 2023.
NFC South
7 of 8
Atlanta Falcons: They're putting most of their eggs in the basket of Desmond Ridder, a sophomore third-round pick with four career starts under his belt. Meanwhile, the defense ranked 30th in DVOA last season. Lots of room for last place here.
Carolina Panthers: There will likely be growing pains and an adjustment period with a rookie quarterback and a new head coach. If Ridder and Derek Carr are decent for the Falcons and New Orleans Saints, respectively, and if the Bucs commit to at least being average with their non-quarterback talent, the Panthers might be at the bottom.
New Orleans Saints: Last year the Saints, Falcons and Panthers finished in a three-way final-place tie. Carr brings hope to a New Orleans team with a talented defense, but if he can't hold up the offense, they could be in big trouble. Keep in mind they'll be without Alvin Kamara to start the year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Super Bowl champs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett remain on the roster, but if they can't win enough early with Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask under center, the Bucs might bail on 2023 and sell some of those guys off for the sake of the long-term future.
NFC West
8 of 8
Arizona Cardinals: The NFL's least talented team just has to meet last-place expectations, especially with quarterback Kyler Murray down.
Los Angeles Rams: This washed team hasn't given up on competing just yet, but if it falls behind early in the year, it could decide to take its foot off the gas pedal and deal more veterans away. At that point, a last-place finish would become ideal.
San Francisco 49ers: It's possible Murray and Matthew Stafford and Co. keep the Cards and Rams competitive while the 49ers fall victim to injuries and/or the fact that they still don't have a proven commodity at quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks: Was Geno Smith's shocking 2022 campaign a flash in the pan? If so, and if Murray returns to help the Cardinals, the Seahawks could easily drop back to the bottom of this division (where they were in 2021).
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