Fantasy Football 2023: Examining Expert Mock Drafts After Preseason Week 1

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL preseason slate is in the books.

How are your fantasy football hunches looking so far? If you were a Khalil Herbert believer before, you might be even more bullish now. If you saw a breakout year in the works for Travis Etienne Jr., though, you might be feeling a little uneasy with Tank Bigsby and JaMycal Hasty seeing short-yardage and third-down chances, respectively.

Remember, though, it's only week—of games that don't ultimately matter. That doesn't mean you should dismiss the results outright, but make sure they're received with a serious serving of salt.

How do the experts think about the field so far? Well, we've gathered up three expert mocks to find out.

12-Team, 0.5 PPR

Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - AUGUST 05: Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs a receiving route during the Miami Dolphins Training Camp on Saturday, August 5, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This 12-team, half-point-per-reception marks featured 11 fantasy experts, including Jay Felicio, and one autodraft bot to play the part of your league mate who will inevitably miss the draft.

A couple interesting things happened in this mock, starting at the top. Christian McCaffrey went No. 1—not at all a reach, but he's typically second off the board behind Justin Jefferson—and was followed by four consecutive receivers (Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp). Only two other running backs went in the first round: Bijan Robinson (autodrafted at No. 10) and Saquon Barkley (No. 12). The rest of the picks were receivers and Travis Kelce (No. 6).

The team that took Kelce, managed by Rotoheat's Shane Barrett, followed with Mahomes at No. 19 and then went running back in the third (Najee Harris, No. 30) and fourth rounds (Aaron Jones, No. 43). They then took receivers in rounds five (Terry McLaurin, No. 54), six (Chris Godwin, No. 67) and seven (Diontae Johnson, No. 78). If you're thinking about starting with that Kansas City connection, this is a good idea of the range of backs and receivers you'll be able to get.

There are two other teams worth highlighting. One, drafted by Football Guys' Alfredo Brown, opened the mock with five consecutive wide receivers (Cooper Kupp, No. 5; Jaylen Waddle, No. 20; Tee Higgins, No. 29; Deebo Samuel, No. 44; and Christian Watson, No. 53). Brown wound up with Alexander Mattison (No. 68) and D'Andre Swift (No. 83) at running back, Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback (No. 101) and Greg Dulcich (no. 115 at tight end).

The other, the autodrafted team, grabbed four consecutive running backs (Robinson, No. 10; Nick Chubb, No. 15; Kenneth Walker III, No. 34 and Travis Etienne Jr., No. 39). It was, frankly, a baffling start, since at least one of these players will be benched every week, and it's even harder to justify with both Walker and Etienne potentially trapped in timeshares.

10-Team, PPR

Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

EAGAN, MN - AUGUST 12: Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) runs with the ball during Minnesota Vikings Training Camp at TCO Performance Center on August 12, 2023 in Eagan, Minnesota. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This 10-teamer from the CBS Sports crew featured a fairly standard setup but with one flex spot instead of two. That give managers a bit more...well, flexibility to assemble their rosters.

Most managers in this mock sought positional diversity from the start. Of the 10 teams drafted, only four started with the same position in the first two rounds, and just one opened with three players at the same spot (Thomas Shafer's, which started with Ja'Marr Chase at No. 3, Davante Adams at No. 18, and Jaylen Waddle at No. 23).

We're a big proponent of experimenting during mock drafts, so any zigs against a general zag will always grab our attention. If you're wondering what a WR/WR/WR start to your draft might look like, here's how the rest of the first 10 rounds went: running back Najee Harris (No. 38), quarterback Justin Fields (No. 43), running back James Conner (No. 58), receiver Terry McLaurin (No. 63), receiver Jordan Addison (No. 78), running back D'Andre Swift (No. 83) and quarterback Deshaun Watson (No. 98).

There are also a few players we'll typically track in mocks, so here's where they went. Jonathan Taylor, who has requested a trade away from the Indianapolis Colts, cracked the second round (No. 20). So did run-first backs Nick Chubb (No. 13) and Derrick Henry (No. 17), who take a hit in the PPR format. As for rookies, Bijan Robinson went in the first round (No. 5), Jahmyr Gibbs went in the third (No. 30), and the next wasn't seen until the end of the seventh (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, No. 70).

12-Team, 0.5 PPR

Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

SANTA CLARA, CA - MAY 31: San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) takes part in a drill during the team's OTA practice on May 31, 2023, at the SAP Performance Facility in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

We'll round out this analysis with a look at the latest mock from ESPN's experts. This was a standard setup beyond the half-point-per-reception format.

There weren't huge surprises in the opening round—McCaffrey again went No. 1—but Derrick Henry going fifth overall felt notable, since he's an afterthought in Tennessee's passing game. The best value picks went back-to-back as dynamic pass-catchers Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp landed eighth and ninth overall, respectively.

Other than the Henry selection, the top of this draft was dominated by wide receivers. That position accounted for 14 of the 24 selections made in the first two rounds. The rest were nine running backs (five in the first round, four in the second) and tight end Travis Kelce (No. 7).

Jonathan Taylor went 15th overall as RB6. Nick Chubb landed at No. 19, 14 spots behind Henry. Jahmyr Gibbs again went in the third round (No. 33), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was again the third rookie taken (No. 89). Aaron Rodgers, the 12th quarterback taken, lasted until the 10th round (No. 116). Anthony Richardson, the lone rookie quarterback drafted, went in the 15th round (No. 145).