Ranking NFL QBs Most Likely to Lose Their Starting Job During 2023 Season

Nothing is more important in the NFL than finding a quarterback who can lead a franchise for many years. Having a revolving door at the position is not a sustainable path to long-term success.

And that basic concept is the impetus behind all sorts of change.

If a team needs a spark, switching to a new quarterback—while it's often a risky decision—may be an appealing option. In other situations, it becomes clear that a starting QB simply isn't working out.

Regardless of the context, it's an inevitable part of every NFL season. We've identified several offenses that could experience the undesirable change at quarterback for a non-injury reason based on the likelihood of inconsistent play and/or team failure.

The closest miss is the San Francisco 49ers, who seem committed to Brock Purdy over Trey Lance. Keep an eye on the Niners, though.

5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots

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Bailey Zappe (left), Mac Jones and Bill O'Brien

To be clear, this option is unappealing. After the New England Patriots coaching staff mangled their offense last year, Mac Jones deserves a chance at a full season under new coordinator Bill O'Brien.

But we already saw the Patriots bench him once.

Last year, Bailey Zappe started twice and helped New England win both games—even as it's worth noting the victories came against the pre-winning-streak Detroit Lions and Deshaun Watson-less Cleveland Browns. Zappe then relieved Jones in a loss to the Chicago Bears.

Since the AFC East is stacked with playoff-caliber teams, the Pats can hardly afford a slow start to the season.

However, that possibility exists with an opening run against the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys. No matter my personal view, it's not difficult to envision New England smacking the panic button if Jones has a rough stretch in September.

4. The Rookie Situations

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Anthony Richardson

Consider this section an "honorable mention" type of category.

At this point, we're not certain if the Houston Texans will start C.J. Stroud over Davis Mills or the Indianapolis Colts will pick Anthony Richardson over Gardner Minshew II.

Those are the expected outcomes in both places, for the record, but it's less of a foregone conclusion than the Carolina Panthers rolling with Bryce Young and the Tennessee Titans not starting Will Levis.

However, if Houston initially sends out Mills, it's a safe bet Stroud will eventually step in. Same goes for Richardson in Indy.

Neither the Texans nor Colts are expected to truly contend for a playoff spot. Provided that belief holds true, it's only sensible for both organizations to see what their rookies can do.

3. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

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ASHBURN, VA - JULY 28: Sam Howell #14 of the Washington Commanders takes the field during training camp at OrthoVirginia Training Center on July 28, 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

The optimistic view is a fun one! Perhaps the Washington Commanders have identified their franchise quarterback in Sam Howell, a one-time coveted prospect who ultimately slipped to the fifth round last year.

What if 2023 is more of a backfire than a coronation, though?

Intriguing as Howell is, we're still talking about a quarterback with one start and 19 pass attempts in his NFL career. Howell is unproven as a pro, and maybe he's not actually ready for a full-time job.

Because the Commanders aren't likely to contend in the NFC East, the wise decision seems to start Howell this season, for better or worse, to determine if he's their long-term answer. Yet that perception may shift if Washington is hovering in the playoff race around, say, Week 10 despite a lackluster offense.

In that case, veteran backup Jacoby Brissett is rather experienced in the "break in case of emergency" role.

2. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 10: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans throws passes in training camp at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park on August 10, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Silas Walker/Getty Images)

Barring an injury, Ryan Tannehill will be starting the opener for the Tennessee Titans. That much is apparent.

The problem for him, however, is threefold: Tannehill has an expiring contract, the Titans just selected Will Levis in the second round of 2023 draft—along with Malik Willis in 2022's third round, for that matter—and Tennessee might be out of the playoff hunt in December.

Tannehill very likely deserves to keep his position as long as the Titans are in contention for the postseason.

But the moment that changes, if it does, Tennessee should consider a switch. Besides, head coach Mike Vrabel may be fighting for his future if the Titans aren't in the wild-card race, whereas Tannehill's offseason fate would be sealed. Overseeing a late-season surge with Levis (or Willis) could be enough to save Vrabel's job.

Either way, Tannehill has a shaky future with the Titans.

1. Tampa Bay's Starter

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Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield

Might be Baker Mayfield. Could be Kyle Trask. Regardless, I'm expecting to see both of them start for Tampa in 2023.

Wherever the competition lands, the Buccaneers are in a semi-uncomfortable spot. Mayfield is seemingly an average NFL starter at best, so he's not viewed as a long-term player. Trask may develop into the obvious choice, yet there's also no guarantee it'll happen.

Throw in that the NFC South lacks an undisputed favorite, and Tampa Bay may need to balance the hope of competing for a division crown while seeing if Trask should be part of long-term plans.

Ideally, the perfect overlap happens: Trask starts all 17 games, propels the Bucs to the postseason and establishes himself as QB1.

Four months from now, we might remember that idea as wishful thinking.