1 MLB Player from Each Team Most Likely to Be Traded in 2023-24 Offseason
The 2023 MLB trade deadline has already come and gone, but we always have hypothetical roster moves on the brain.
This past offseason, there were 59 trades completed. Most of them were of the "sure, OK, whatever" variety, but we were also treated to big deals like the Pablo López/Luis Arráez swap, the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta, the Daulton Varsho to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno trade that did wonders for Arizona's 2023 campaign and several other eyebrow-raisers.
With that in mind, we're taking some early looks/guesses at which player each franchise is most likely to trade away this coming offseason.
Aside from the unrestricted free agents, all players were eligible for consideration. However, the reasoning behind the selection will vary from one team to the next.
Small-market/rebuilding clubs might be looking to dump salary or give up a player with some value today for someone who might have equal or better value six years from now. Others may have a logjam at a certain position group, perhaps because of a highly touted prospect liable to crack the 2024 Opening Day starting lineup/rotation.
Though 2023 salaries play no real part in whether a player would be traded in the offseason, we've included that figure (along with upcoming contract data) for each player listed. That should help gauge the cost of the many players with arbitration eligibility this offseason.
Teams have been broken up by division and listed in alphabetical order of location within each division, beginning in the AL East.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Jorge Mateo, 2B/SS
Contract Situation: $2 million in 2023, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining
Simply put, the Orioles are drowning in infield talent. Even with Adam Frazier leaving as a free agent this offseason, they have Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías and Ryan Mountcastle for the foreseeable future, plus 2022 No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday, who is raking his way through the minor leagues this season. Mateo has excellent speed and a solid glove, but there's no question he would be expendable if it helps the O's improve their starting rotation.
Boston Red Sox: Alex Verdugo, OF
Contract Situation: $6.3 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is by far the top prospect in Boston's farm system, but outfield prospect Ceddanne Rafaela is well on his way to getting a shot at a starting gig in spring training. Couple that with Jarren Duran's breakout year, Masataka Yoshida being signed through 2027 and Rob Refsnyder coming back as a serviceable, inexpensive fourth outfielder, and the Red Sox are in a good spot to trade away the main player whom they got back in the Mookie Betts/David Price trade from three offseasons ago.
New York Yankees: Kyle Higashioka, C
Contract Situation: $1.4625 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
Gleyber Torres might also be on the chopping block with one year of team control left, though New York would have a hard time justifying trading away one of the only hitters who is actually producing this season. Instead, Higashioka is a likely candidate to be dealt, provided Jose Trevino's season-ending wrist injury isn't considered a serious threat to have him open next season on the IL as well. The Yankees also have highly touted prospect Austin Wells and Ben Rortvedt to hold down the fort behind the plate.
Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Glasnow, SP
Contract Situation: $5.35 million in 2023, $25 million in 2024
Because of their starting rotation's volume of injuries over the past year, the Rays might figure out how to pay Glasnow his $25 million just to have a theoretically healthy arm on Opening Day. But if they're confident they can cobble together a starting rotation without Glasnow, this tiny-market club—which is spending a combined $24 million on its three most expensive players this season—will be doing everything in its power to let some other deep-pocketed team in Chicago, Los Angeles or New York make this balloon payment in Glasnow's contract.
Toronto Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi, SP
Contract Situation: $10 million in 2023, $10 million in 2024
Kikuchi is quietly having the best season of his career. He currently has a 3.53 ERA and a 3.57 K/BB ratio, both of which would've made Seattle think again about letting him go two offseasons ago. But if another team is willing to buy high on a similar level of production from Kikuchi in 2024, the Blue Jays have more than enough pitching on hand to consider parting with this southpaw if it nets them a solid hitter. They're poised to lose Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and probably Whit Merrifield (who has an $18 million mutual option) this offseason.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Aaron Bummer, RP
Contract Situation: $3.75 million in 2023, $5.5 million in 2024, $7.25 million club option in 2025
Paying more than $5 million for a middle reliever is a privilege for teams that expect to be contending for a World Series. Between the trade deadline gutting of the roster and all the recent comments from Keynan Middleton and Lance Lynn about the White Sox's "no rules" culture, no one expects them to contend for a World Series in 2024. It's just a question of whether they can convince anyone to take Bummer in light of his disastrous 6.53 ERA this season. (He does have a 2.47 FIP and had been rock solid over the past half-decade.)
Cleveland Guardians: Myles Straw, OF
Contract Situation: $2.9 million in 2023, $4.9 million in 2024, $6.4 million in 2025, $7.4 million in 2026, $8 million club option in 2027
Until Shane Bieber got hurt, there was a lot of talk leading up to the deadline about Cleveland possibly trading him. That could still happen this offseason with one year of arbitration eligibility remaining until the Guardians ace hits free agency. But Cleveland might try even harder to unload its light-hitting, Gold Glove center fielder, as trading Straw would both clear some room in the outfield for top prospect George Valera (who has struggled mightily this season) and improve the team's atrocious slugging via addition by subtraction.
Detroit Tigers: Austin Meadows, DH
Contract Situation: $4.3 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
When Tampa Bay sent Meadows to Detroit for Isaac Paredes just before the start of the 2022 campaign, who would've guessed that the Rays would get 42 home runs from their half of the deal before the Tigers got a single round tripper? Granted, due to a combination of physical and mental health ailments, Meadows has played in only 42 games since the beginning of last season. But Detroit would surely be OK with letting another team foot the bill for his final season before free agency.
Kansas City Royals: Jordan Lyles, SP
Contract Situation: $8.5 million in 2023, $8.5 million in 2024
This is the starting pitcher version of the point just made about Aaron Bummer. There is no good reason for Kansas City to pay a pitcher $8.5 million next season when it has no realistic hope of winning the World Series. However, convincing someone else to pay that amount for a pitcher who now has a career bWAR of negative-2.3 won't be easy.
Minnesota Twins: Jorge Polanco, 2B
Contract Situation: $7.5 million in 2023, $10.5 million in 2024, $12 million club option in 2025
Carlos Correa is the everyday staple at shortstop, and Edouard Julien has been a breakout rookie star as Minnesota's primary second baseman. Throw in Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Royce Lewis and top prospect Brooks Lee as guys who can play basically anywhere in the infield, and there's no good reason for the Twins to be paying this amount of money for a 30-year-old middle infielder who hasn't produced much even when healthy this season. (Polanco could be an intriguing target in a Yusei Kikuchi trade with Toronto, though.)
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Kendall Graveman, RP
Contract Situation: $8 million in 2023, $8 million in 2024
How many high-priced relievers does Houston need? Ryan Pressly is making $14 million in 2024. Rafael Montero isn't far behind at $11.5 million. And for as well as he has pitched this season, the Astros would be out of their minds to not pick up their $8.5 million club option for Hector Neris. They were able to add Graveman at the deadline for the cost of one good-not-great prospect (Korey Lee), but trading him away before the start of next season would help them at least partially offset the addition of Justin Verlander's massive salary.
Los Angeles Angels: Tyler Anderson, SP
Contract Situation: $13 million in 2023, $13 million in 2024, $13 million in 2025
Until we find out whether the Angels re-sign Shohei Ohtani, it's impossible to gauge how they'll approach the offseason. But Anderson is the lone eight-figure salary whom they could reasonably trade away, which could be a desirable move regardless of whether they do retain Ohtani.
Oakland A's: Paul Blackburn, SP
Contract Situation: $1.9 million in 2023, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining
Of the A's who aren't under team control through at least 2027, Blackburn is unquestionably the best trade chip. The A's will also probably try to trade away 34-year-old reliever Austin Pruitt and 33-year-old infielder Aledmys Díaz, but Blackburn is the one for whom they might actually fetch a legitimate haul.
Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert, SP
Contract Situation: $767,300 in 2023, four years of arbitration eligibility remaining
If the Mariners could swing a trade for multiple position players (with multiple years of team control) who are good enough to hold down everyday gigs in 2024, perhaps they would be willing to move one of their young quality starting pitchers. Gilbert is slated for free agency well before any of George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Easton McGee, making him the most likely candidate for the Mariners to part with.
Texas Rangers: Jon Gray, SP
Contract Situation: $15 million in 2023, $13 million in 2024, $13 million in 2025
Even if Jacob deGrom isn't pitching in 2024 and Andrew Heaney (player option for 2024) joins Martín Pérez and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, the Rangers could still look to trade away Gray as they try to cope with spending a combined $161.3 million just on deGrom, Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Nathan Eovaldi next year. They would still have Scherzer, Eovaldi, Dane Dunning and touted prospect Owen White. Whether they deem that to be enough likely hinges on how deep of a run they make in the 2023 postseason (provided they get there at all).
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Eddie Rosario, OF
Contract Situation: $9 million in 2023, $9 million club option for 2024
Atlanta could just let Rosario walk after this season, as his club option has no buyout. But the savvier move would be to keep him—particularly since there aren't many quality outfielders hitting free agency—before putting him on the trade block. He has already hit more home runs than he did in any of the previous three seasons and could be of value to one of the many teams in need of a serviceable corner outfielder.
Miami Marlins: Edward Cabrera, SP
Contract Situation: $731,000 in 2023, five years of team control remaining
Between Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez and top prospect Max Meyer, the Marlins have seven starting pitchers under team control through at least the 2026 season. That puts them in prime position to trade away a young, controllable arm for the second consecutive offseason. If they had to pick one to part with, it would probably be Cabrera, who has battled both injury and control issues throughout his young career but has impressive stuff when he's not walking everyone.
New York Mets: José Quintana, SP
Contract Situation: $13 million in 2023, $13 million in 2024
If the Mets can convince someone to take on the two years and $41.5 million left on Starling Marte's contract, there's no question they'd love to make that deal. But Quintana is much more affordable and isn't currently sputtering through the worst season of his career, making him the player for whom they might actually be able to get a solid prospect in return. Quintana was on the IL with a rib injury until late July, but he has come back strong with quality starts in three of his four outings. He would be one of the top pitchers on the trade block if he continues to pitch well for another seven weeks.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jake Cave, OF
Contract Situation: $950,000 in 2023, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining
It's possible that first base will be Bryce Harper's permanent home beyond this season. But if he's headed back to right field in 2024, the Phillies have too many outfielders worthy of regular playing time. For the foreseeable future, Harper, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber would hold down the LF/RF/DH duties while Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh take care of CF and defensive replacements, leaving both Jake Cave and Cristian Pache expendable. Of the two, they'd likely try to move the 30-year-old who is hitting .209 since the start of 2020. However, it's possible both get dealt this offseason.
Washington Nationals: Dominic Smith, 1B
Contract Situation: $2 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
Though Smith is still nowhere near the hitter that he was in 2019 and 2020, he has bounced back a bit from disappointing 2021 and 2022 campaigns, playing just about every day and pretty consistently hovering in the .270 batting average and .340 on-base percentage ranges since mid-May. But with the Nationals presumably still at least a year away from legitimately contending again, they might see what they can get for him.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Nick Madrigal, 2B/3B
Contract Situation: $1.225 million, three years of arbitration eligibility remaining
Shortstop Dansby Swanson certainly isn't going anywhere, nor are middle infielder Nico Hoerner (signed through 2026) or free-swinging utilityman Christopher Morel (under team control through 2028). So the Cubs could look to trade Madrigal, who has been injured a ton throughout his four seasons in the big leagues, but whose low price point and career .285 batting average would be of much interest on the trade block.
Cincinnati Reds: Jonathan India, 2B
Contract Situation: $760,000 in 2023, three years of arbitration eligibility remaining
It normally wouldn't make any sense to trade away a young second baseman with a career .770 OPS and an NL ROY trophy on his mantle. However, with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer already in the majors and with top prospects Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier all of the infielder variety, trading away India to improve the pitching staff almost makes too much sense for Cincinnati. Kevin Newman and his one remaining year of arbitration eligibility are also certain to be on the trade block.
Milwaukee Brewers: Hoby Milner, RP
Contract Situation: $1.025 million in 2023, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining
Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez and Adrian Houser are all entering their final year of arbitration eligibility in 2024. Milwaukee might (and arguably should) embrace an offseason fire sale in hopes of avoiding spending 2025-30 in rebuilding purgatory. But don't be surprised if they instead choose to sell high on Milner's breakout year at 32 years old in hopes of adding the missing piece to push them over the top next season.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller, SP
Contract Situation: $2.4375 million in 2023, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining
Keller has had several colossal duds since the All-Star Break, but he was great for the first three-plus months of the season and would be a massive name on the trade block if the Pirates are willing to part with him. Their asking price would be justifiably high, but there could be a fellow small-market club willing to part with at least two promising prospects to add an affordable, dependable starter.
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O'Neill, OF
Contract Situation: $4.95 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
O'Neill has been a rumored trade candidate for more than a full calendar year at this point. Perhaps this winter is where the Cardinals will finally look to clear up their outfield logjam by trading away the one guy who isn't under team control for at least another three years. Since returning in late July from more than two months on the IL, O'Neill has a .915 OPS on par with what got him NL MVP consideration in 2021. If he continues to hit well (and stays healthy) the rest of the way, the list of suitors for this one-year rental will be a mile long.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly, C
Contract Situation: $4.275 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
Kelly missed the first 2.5 months of this season with a fractured forearm, forcing Arizona to rely on rookies Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera behind the plate. Moreno quickly established himself as a viable primary catcher for the foreseeable future, while Herrera has been serviceable enough to remain the main backup backstop if the Diamondbacks wanted to save a little coin by trading away Kelly before the start of 2024.
Colorado Rockies: Elias Díaz, C
Contract Situation: $5.5 million in 2023, $6 million in 2024
The Rockies are highly unlikely to contend in 2024, and they're equally unlikely to be able to trade away Germán Márquez (Tommy John surgery in May) or Daniel Bard (issuing all of the walks) this offseason. That leaves Díaz as the low-hanging fruit to be traded, since he's the only other player hitting free agency after next season. Utilityman Harold Castro could also be on the block with his career .281 batting average and two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Miguel Rojas, SS
Contract Situation: $4.25 million in 2023, $5.75 million in 2024, $5 million club option for 2025
It's tough to find a good trade candidate for the Dodgers, who have a ton of guys hitting free agency, as well as four relievers with club options that they'll probably decline. But with Gavin Lux presumably returning from his torn ACL and with Mookie Betts looking like he could at least be a part-time second baseman moving forward, they don't have much need for Rojas. He turns 35 in February and has been a black hole in the lineup for most of the year, but he was solid, near-everyday shortstop prior to this season.
San Diego Padres: Juan Soto, OF
Contract Situation: $23 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
It's even tougher to find a good trade candidate from the Padres than it is from the Dodgers, as they have seven guys signed through at least 2027 (AKA not going anywhere), eight players hitting unrestricted free agency and four others with player/club/mutual options that could lead to free agency. They certainly don't want to trade Soto, but if they're unable to work out a long-term deal with him this offseason, it might be in their best interest to try to restock their starting rotation/farm system by trading him away.
San Francisco Giants: Alex Cobb, SP
Contract Situation: $9 million in 2023, $10 million club option for 2024
A first-time All-Star this season at the age of 35, Cobb has had an impressive three-year run with a 3.60 ERA since the start of 2021. He would surely fetch more than $10 million for 2024 if the Giants were to decline his club option, which they won't. But they could opt for MLB's version of a sign and trade by picking up the option before flipping him for an upgrade elsewhere. The Giants likely would prefer to trade away Sean Manaea or Ross Stripling, both of whom figure to pick up their $15 million player options for 2024, but good luck getting anything of value for those expensive arms with ERAs north of 5.00 this season.
