The Best Round-by-Round Values in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Whether you're playing for money, keeps or bragging rights, finding value throughout your fantasy football draft is the key to winning leagues.
Anyone can take Justin Jefferson or Christian McCaffrey at No. 1 overall and pat themselves on the back. It's not that hard to identify the usual suspects who are primed for another year of carrying fantasy teams.
The real trick is finding those values who can win your league beyond the first few picks.
Here, we'll take a look at the best value pick in each round. Round designations will be based on the current average draft position data at Fantasy Football Calculator for a 12-team points-per-reception (PPR) league.
A value pick is defined as someone who has a good chance to outperform their ADP based on their talent, situation and opportunity. Consider this a round-by-round guide of high-value picks.
Round 1: RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
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ADP: 1.10 (10th pick in the first round)
Nothing will sink your fantasy team quite like drafting a bust in the first round.
Obviously, holding a high enough pick to draft Justin Jefferson or Christian McCaffrey is ideal, but if you're picking in the mid-to-late first, you can't draft a bust and need someone with the upside to lead their respective position in scoring.
Browns running back Nick Chubb happens to check both of those boxes. He is often overlooked—especially in PPR formats—because of his lack of receiving role. However, Chubb finished as RB6 in those leagues and could be a more of a factor in the passing game this season.
There are five backs going ahead of Chubb in drafts, but each have questions that he doesn't, with the exception of Austin Ekeler. McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley have a history of injuries that have kept them off the field. Bijan Robinson has the uncertainty of being a rookie, and Jonathan Taylor is coming off an injury and just requested a trade.
Meanwhile, the Browns did not bring back Kareem Hunt or D'Ernest Johnson this offseason. That leaves Jerome Ford as the primary competition for carries. Hunt saw 44 targets last season, so if Chubb proves he can take some of those, he could finish even higher this season with a well-established floor.
Others Considered: TE Travis Kelce (1.06), WR Tyreek Hill (1.09)
Round 2: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
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ADP: 2.04
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the second-round wide receiver with the first-round target share and role with his team. Target magnets like Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp are going ahead of Sun God, but that might just be a product of name recognition.
Kupp is coming off an ankle injury that limited him to nine games last season. He's 30 years old and already tweaked his hamstring in training camp. Adams is going from playing with a relatively strong-armed quarterback in Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo and is also 30.
Meanwhile, St. Brown finished as WR7 in just his second year in the league. At 23 years old, there's still a chance we haven't seen St. Brown's best stuff yet.
Jared Goff leaned heavily on St. Brown last season, throwing 146 targets his way. He saw a target on 32.3 percent of the routes he ran, third in the league, per Player Profiler.
Fellow wide receiver Jameson Williams was suspended for the first six games of the season for betting, so the reliance on St. Brown isn't going away anytime soon.
That leaves room for him to actually build on last year's success.
Others Considered: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (2.08), RB Tony Pollard (2.03), WR Garrett Wilson (2.11)
Round 3: WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
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ADP: 3.07
Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are always going to be tied together. They came from the same draft class and were college teammates. Comparing the two here shows how much value Olave is giving drafters.
Wilson is going toward the end of the second round. Obviously, his stock has been boosted by getting Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But it doesn't seem like Olave is getting the same bump for going from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston to Derek Carr.
Carr has supported an elite pass-catcher in each of the last three seasons. Davante Adams finished as WR3 last season, Hunter Renfrow was WR11 in 2021 and Darren Waller was TE2 with enough points to be WR6 in 2020.
Olave is a whole lot more talented than Renfrow and could have a healthy Michael Thomas to keep defenses from keying in on him.
He posted 72 receptions for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie but should see a leap from Year 1 to 2 in a better overall passing offense. It's not out of the question that he finishes as a top-10 receiver.
That's incredible value for a third-round pick.
Others Considered: RB Aaron Jones (3.06), WR DK Metcalf (3.10)
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Round 4: WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
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ADP: 4.09
Amari Cooper finished as WR10 in PPR leagues last season. Let that sink in.
That was with Jacoby Brissett leading the Browns offense for the first 11 games of the season. And it wasn't like Deshaun Watson's return over the final six games of the season was much of an upgrade.
Watson struggled and posted a total QBR of 38.3 when his previous career-low was 61.8 in his first full year as a starter.
The Browns didn't give up all those draft picks and give Watson a massive fully guaranteed contract to have him simply play in a conservative, run-heavy offense. They will likely be looking to unleash their quarterback who has now had a full offseason to develop chemistry with his receivers and get more comfortable with the playbook.
Now, Cooper's ADP would say that he's somehow going to do worse than he did last season. The Browns brought in some new receivers in Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. They should offer additional weapons to Watson but neither is really good enough to take targets from him.
Others Considered: QB Jalen Hurts (4.02), RB Dameon Pierce (4.07)
Round 5: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
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ADP: 5.04
The last five running backs who were selected in the first 12 picks of the NFL draft ended up with top-12 finishes in fantasy scoring.
This year, two running backs fall into that category. Bijan Robinson went No. 8 overall to the Falcons and has an ADP of 1.05. The other, Jahmyr Gibbs, isn't going until the fifth round.
Robinson is a perfectly fine pick based on his projected role. Gibbs is an absolute steal at his current value.
The Lions added David Montgomery in free agency, and that's likely to scare some drafters, but there's room in this offense for two productive backs. Jamaal Williams (RB15) and D'Andre Swift (RB24) were both solid RB2s for managers last season.
Dan Campbell recently told the media it would be a "two-headed monster" in the backfield before reminiscing about the Giants backfield with Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne and the Saints backfield with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Shared responsibility can be a scary prospect in fantasy, but Gibbs is an explosive receiver and big-play threat. Sharing the backfield with a thumper like Montgomery could actually free him up for more valuable fantasy touches in the backfield.
He has legitimate RB1 upside at an RB2 price.
Others Considered: RB Alvin Kamara (5.11), WR Mike Evans (5.06), WR Terry McLaurin (5.07)
Round 6: QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
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ADP: 6.07
Those who drafted Justin Herbert at his 3.09 ADP last season when he was usually the second quarterback off the board might now have him on a permanent "do not draft" list, but that would be a mistake.
After finishing as the second-highest-scoring quarterback in 2021, Herbert was still a fantasy starter but didn't live up to draft expectations with a QB12 finish in 2022.
But the reasons behind that dip in production are why he's now a draft value. For one, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed a combined 11 games last season. There aren't a lot of quarterbacks who would hold their value with that many missed games between their two best receivers.
The depth behind those two wasn't that great last season. Drafting Quentin Johnston in the first round should make the receiving corps a little more resilient in case of more injuries.
Herbert had a rib injury in Week 2 that he played through the whole season. He also had surgery on his labrum over the offseason, indicating there could have been another injury he was playing through.
The offseason and surgery should have Herbert at 100 percent. The addition of Johnston and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore elevates his ceiling even higher.
If you believe the injuries will be less of an issue this season, it's not hard to believe he'll get back to being a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Others Considered: WR Brandon Aiyuk (6.12)
Round 7: WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
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ADP: 7.01
With Doug Pederson taking over and Trevor Lawrence growing into his potential as a former No. 1 pick in his second season, the Jaguars became a viable fantasy football offense last year.
Now you can find the potential No. 1 receiver in that offense in the seventh round.
Christian Kirk ended the season as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 with a 14th-place finish among receivers. Evan Engram was TE5.
Now, they'll insert Calvin Ridley into the mix. If you read a report from training camp, it's likely that there will be a lot of description of the growing connection between Lawrence and his new receiver.
It's been a while, but the last time Ridley played a full season, he finished as WR5 despite missing two games. Ridley stepped away from the Falcons after five games in the 2021 season to focus on his mental well-being and was suspended for the 2022 campaign for violating the league's gambling policy.
The time away shouldn't be a concern. He's had plenty of time to get in playing shape and gain an understanding of the Jaguars offense. Given his talent, he should become the leading receiver for an explosive Jags passing game and a fantasy sleeper.
Others Considered: WR Christian Watson (7.09), RB James Cook (7.06)
Round 8: TE Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
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ADP: 8.03
If you're not going to pay up for Travis Kelce in the first round, there really isn't an established second or third tier of tight ends.
There's just one or two tight ends in each round, and no solidified grouping. Mark Andrews (2.11), T.J. Hockenson (4.01), George Kittle (5.02), Kyle Pitts (5.05), Dallas Goedert (6.03) and Darren Waller (6.08) are the next tight ends off the board.
The key to finding value at tight end is to identify who is going after that group who might be able to emerge as a better option to secure a top-five finish at the position.
Someone like Pat Freiermuth, who is going about a round-and-a-half after Waller, is a good candidate. For starters, he actually finished as TE6 ahead of Goedert and Waller as both had injuries.
There's reason to believe he's going to be even better in 2023, though. Freiermuth was fourth among tight ends in air yards and third in deep targets, per Player Profiler.
Yet, his role yielded just two touchdowns after he scored seven as a rookie. The Steelers added Darnell Washington, but he figures to be more of a blocker as a first-year player than a huge receiving threat.
As long as Freiermuth is a focal point of the passing attack and gets some positive touchdown regression, he's going to outperform his eighth-round price.
Others Considered: RB Rashaad Penny (8.03), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (8.10)
Round 9: TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
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ADP: 9.05
We're going with back-to-back tight ends here and a second Jaguars pass-catcher in three rounds because this is a great area in the draft to target tight ends, and the Jags offense is one that's worth going after.
Pat Freiermuth is a good value pick in the eighth round, but Engram could have even more value in the ninth. He finished ahead of Freiermuth in scoring last season, and there are fewer questions around Trevor Lawrence as a quarterback than Kenny Pickett.
From Weeks 10 to 17, Lawrence was the fifth-highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football on a per-game basis. For the year, Lawrence was seventh in pass attempts.
Calvin Ridley's presence in the offense could work against Engram, but it's more likely to impact fellow wide receiver Christian Kirk. Engram was given a three-year, $41.3 million extension this offseason.
They didn't give him that money for him to not be a major part of their passing game. The Jaguars are an ascending offense, and Engram could be the second option behind Ridley, making him well worth a ninth-round investment.
Others Considered: QB Deshaun Watson (9.05), QB Tua Tagovailoa (9.09)
Round 10: RB Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs
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ADP: 10.08
This is where it's important to understand your league's scoring system, because McKinnon is strictly a PPR value at this price. But for those who go wide receiver-heavy early in the draft or are going with a Zero RB roster build, McKinnon is the perfect value find at running back.
The veteran back emerged as a favorite target for Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs offense. He saw 71 targets and turned them into 56 receptions for 512 yards and nine touchdowns as a receiver. The 291 yards and one score he added on the ground were pretty much an afterthought.
But all that receiving production made him a viable starter with an RB26 finish in PPR formats. He also won a lot of fantasy playoff games with 79 points over the final four weeks of the season.
The Chiefs tinkered with their backfield all season as Clyde Edwards-Helaire eventually gave way to Isiah Pacheco, but they were at their best with Pacheco handling the majority of the rushing duties and McKinnon catching passes.
If that's going to be the setup again, then McKinnon is going to make a lot of fantasy managers happy this season.
Others Considered: WR Allen Lazard (10.08), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (10.07)
Late Rounds (11-15)
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Round 11: WR Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (11.01)
With JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, the Chiefs target distribution is once again a mystery. Kadarius Toney is going about five rounds earlier than Moore, but he has an extensive injury history and really didn't do that much in his half-season with the Chiefs last season. Moore is a much better value bet given all the unknowns.
Round 12: RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (12.11)
The Dolphins offense is built around speed and the rookie has it in spades (4.32 40-yard dash). His primary competition for carries in a potentially explosive offense are Raheem Mostert (31 years old) and Jeff Wilson Jr. While both have experience with Mike McDaniel but have had their fair share of injuries.
Round 13: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (13.10)
The Titans passing game is not exciting in general, but they have to throw the ball to someone. Okonkwo was targeted on 33.3 percent of the routes he ran last season which was second among all tight ends, per Player Profiler. If you're dubious that Treylon Burks is ready to break out or don't believe in what DeAndre Hopkins has left, Okonkwo has great upside.
Round 14: RB Pierre Strong Jr., New England Patriots (14.10)
Are we sure Bill Belichick is going to let Rhamondre Stevenson truly take over the Patriots backfield? The coach has been frustrating fantasy managers for years, but if he's going to hand over pass-catching duties to someone else on the roster then Strong is a good candidate to be a Jerick McKinnon-type player. He's worth a flier.
Round 15: WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants (15.01)
Slayton was the Giants WR1 last season and there just aren't many players who led their team in receiving who will still be available in the 15th round. If he continues to take that role, it's a no-brainer.
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