Predicting Every NFL Division's Standings for 2023 Season Before Preseason Week 1
With the preseason about to get underway in earnest, it's a time of hope for fans across the NFL. Supporters of every team believe this is the year. This is the season that all their suffering finally pays off with a trip to the playoffs. Or that rather than just making the playoffs, their team will make it all the way to Las Vegas and Super Bowl LVIII.
Of course, some of those hopes are more realistic than others. If you're a supporter of the Kansas City Chiefs, then it's probably going to be a good season. But if you sport a different color red and root for the Arizona Cardinals?
Well, that's another story.
With the beginning of the first full week of preseason games just a few days away, we're going to run those hopes through the old reality wringer—by projecting the final standings for all eight divisions and the records for all 32 teams.
AFC East
1 of 9
Buffalo Bills: 12-5
The Bills are the three-time reigning division champions and possess the NFL's second-best offense and sixth-best defense from a season ago. Criticisms of their ability to have success in the postseason aside, Buffalo still has one of the most loaded rosters in the league—and it remains the class of what is shaping up to be a brutal AFC East.
New York Jets: 10-7
Jets fans still partying after Aaron Rodgers' arrival will see this as a conservative assessment, and on paper at least, the Jets have the offensive firepower to hang with the Bills in the AFC East. But Rodgers is a 39-year-old quarterback coming off a down year, and the Jets haven't had a winning season since 2015. Slow your roll, Jets fans.
Miami Dolphins: 9-8
The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams in the league to make a prediction like this for—depending on the health of Tua Tagovailoa and the play of the Miami defense, the Dolphins could win the division or lose 10 games. But injuries are already taking a toll on the defensive side, and the Dolphins have the toughest schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage from a year ago in the AFC.
New England Patriots: 7-10
This won't be well-received, and the hiring of Bill O'Brien should benefit Mac Jones and the Patriots offense. But the cold, hard reality is that New England is the least talented team in one of the most difficult divisions in the NFL. The defense is also getting older. Nothing good lasts forever—the days of the Patriots as contenders are over for now.
NFC East
2 of 9
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-4
In terms of combination of offensive firepower and defensive talent, there isn't a better team in the league than the defending NFC champions. Turnover at linebacker in Philadelphia is cause for at least a modicum of concern, but the Eagles remain the clear favorite to not only win their division but also represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVIII. Who cares about Super Bowl hangovers?
New York Giants: 10-7
The Giants are a difficult team to get a bead on—New York made the postseason last year and won a playoff game, but there are legitimate questions at wide receiver and in the secondary. With that said, Brian Daboll showed himself to be an excellent head coach in 2022, and quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley will keep the G-Men in the hunt for a wild-card spot.
Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
The Cowboys were a 12-win playoff team last year that added a proven weapon in the passing game in wideout Brandin Cooks and have one of the NFL's most dynamic defensive playmakers in edge-rusher Micah Parsons. But the change at offensive coordinator to Brian Schottenheimer and head coach Mike McCarthy assuming play-calling duties is going to have an impact—and it's not going to be a positive one.
Washington Commanders: 6-11
The Commanders were a .500 football team last year. There are weapons on offense and talent on defense. This is a team that could defy these expectations and challenge for a wild-card spot. But the NFC East is a stacked division, and the Commanders have a massive question mark at quarterback. Someone has to come in last. Someone has to lose.
AFC North
3 of 9
Cincinnati Bengals: 12-5
On paper, the Bengals don't have many weaknesses. Joe Burrow is one of the league's top young quarterbacks. The Bengals are loaded with skill position talent. The addition of left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. solidifies Cincinnati's offensive line. And the defense is underrated. If Joe Burrow's calf injury is no big deal, the Bengals have to be viewed as the favorites in the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
Success for the Baltimore Ravens comes down to two things in 2023: the health of quarterback Lamar Jackson and the new offense of coordinator Todd Monken. If that offense gets the passing game untracked and the Ravens can truly unlock Jackson, the Ravens could be a Super Bowl contender. The other pieces on both sides of the ball are all there.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
Steelers fans aren't going to want to hear this, but Pittsburgh will probably be one of the most boring teams in the league this year. The defense will be excellent. The offense will struggle at times. The Steelers will be a tough out from week to week, but not a legitimate playoff threat. Hey—at least Mike Tomlin's streak of non-losing seasons will stay alive.
Cleveland Browns: 7-10
Every year about this time, there are predictions that this will be the year that the Browns put things together and make a postseason run. And to be fair, the Browns have decent skill-position talent, the AFC's best offensive line and an excellent duo of pass-rushers in Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith. But Deshaun Watson looked mostly awful in limited action last year, and it's the Browns. Something is going to go wrong.
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NFC North
4 of 9
Detroit Lions: 10-7
That's right. The Detroit Lions are going to win the NFC North, which may or may not be a sign of the apocalypse. Jared Goff played well at quarterback for Lions last year; Detroit should be able to once again field one of the league's better run games; and the defense, while young, is improving. The Lions may not make much noise in the postseason, but they are headed there.
Minnesota Vikings: 9-8
Predicting a four-game drop for the Vikings isn't going to go over especially well with the "skol" crowd, but last year's 13-win Vikings team was a mirage with a negative point differential. The Minnesota offense should be able to score plenty of points, but last year's 31st-ranked defense doesn't look markedly better than last year's unit. Get ready for lots of shootouts in the Twin Cities.
Green Bay Packers: 8-9
The Packers are another of this season's "great unknown" teams—there's no telling what the Pack will look like with Jordan Love under center in the long term until we see it. If Love is a quick study, the Packers have the firepower on both sides of the ball to outperform this projection. But this has the makings of an up-and-down season in Titletown that ends in missing the postseason.
Chicago Bears: 6-11
To be clear, I'm a believer in Justin Fields as an NFL quarterback. He wasn't drafted as a scrambler—the kid has more arm talent than he's given credit for. But there are a lot of new pieces this season for a Bears team that finished last year with the NFL's worst record. Doubling their win total from a year ago may not make fans especially happy, but it's a step in the right direction.
AFC South
5 of 9
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7
Whether the Jaguars are capable of hanging with the Bills, Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs is a question that won't be answered until January. But with a loaded offense led by an ascending quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and an improving young defense, the Jaguars are the clear class of the AFC South. Barring disaster, the Jags are headed back to the postseason.
Tennessee Titans: 8-9
The addition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was a welcome boost to a passing game that desperately needed an influx of talent. But the Titans have an aging quarterback, a running back in Derrick Henry closing in on his 30th birthday and a defense with questions at all three levels. Mike Vrabel is a good coach—but he's a good coach of a mediocre football team.
Indianapolis Colts: 6-11
The Colts are a team building for the future more than competing in the present. If rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson doesn't start the opener, he will soon enough—and once he's under center, there are going to be growing pains. The bigger question may be when Richardson does hit the field whether star running back Jonathan Taylor will be lining up behind him.
Houston Texans: 4-13
The Texans added a pair of potential foundational pieces in quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. in this year's draft, and DeMeco Ryans was a quality hire as head coach. But the Texans fielded the second-worst offense and third-worst defense in the NFL last season. This is a rebuild that isn't going to happen overnight.
NFC South
6 of 9
New Orleans Saints: 9-8
The NFC South may well be the worst division in the NFL in 2023, and picking which mediocre team will win it isn't especially easy. But the Saints have arguably the most balanced team in the division in terms of offensive and defensive talent, and Derek Carr is the most proven quarterback in the NFC South. The Saints are going to host a postseason game in January—and likely get pounded in it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-10
The Buccaneers have an excellent defense that includes talent on the edge, one of the best off-ball linebacker duos in the league in Lavonte David and Devin White and a solid secondary. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a rock-solid wide receiver duo. But the issues at quarterback with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center just can't be ignored.
Atlanta Falcons: 7-10
The Falcons aren't going to be a bad team in 2023. Atlanta spent big in free agency and added an explosive backfield talent in Texas running back Bijan Robinson. The Falcons will run the ball a ton again this year and likely be involved in more than a few close games. But second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder is an unproven commodity who was just so-so in four starts in 2022.
Carolina Panthers: 5-12
The Carolina Panthers are embarking on a new era under head coach Frank Reich and rookie first overall pick Bryce Young. In the long term, I'm a believer in Young's viability as an NFL quarterback and Reich's ability to turn him into a quality NFL starter. But the Panthers have significant holes in the roster on both sides of the ball. It's going to take time to make these Panthers a contender.
AFC West
7 of 9
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
Gee, this is a toughie—the Chiefs have only won the last seven AFC West titles and haven't won fewer than 12 games in a season since 2018. Yes, the Chiefs have potential issues at wide receiver and on the back end of the defense. But they also have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid. The AFC West belongs to the Chiefs until someone takes it. And that's not happening in 2023.
Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
In theory, you can make an argument that the Chargers have a better roster from 1 to 53 than the Chiefs. Justin Herbert is a high-end quarterback. There's offensive talent galore. A top-10 offensive line. And the pieces on defense to put together a formidable unit. But the Chargers also have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, so they are relegated to wild-card status.
Denver Broncos: 8-9
For the second straight season, the Broncos are entering the year with lofty expectations—this time as the result of the arrival of head coach Sean Payton. And for the second straight season, Denver is going to fail to meet those expectations. Denver will be better than last year's league-worst scoring defense, but it won't be good enough to hang with the Chiefs and Chargers.
Las Vegas Raiders: 5-12
This should make my Twitter feed interesting. But the Raiders are a last-place team—and five wins may be a high projection. The Raiders are already managing Jimmy Garoppolo's practice reps due to his surgically repaired foot. There's still no sign of running back Josh Jacobs. And last year Josh McDaniels led a team that set a new NFL record for blown double-digit second-half leads. This is a bad football team. Period.
NFC West
8 of 9
San Francisco 49ers: 11-6
Frankly, this may be a lowball projection—when at 100 percent, the 49ers have an excellent balance of offense and defense and are likely the team best-equipped to prevent the Eagles from advancing to a second straight Super Bowl. But while news regarding Brock Purdy's recovery from elbow surgery remains positive, questions at quarterback could be San Francisco's biggest problem in 2023.
Seattle Seahawks: 10-7
The Seahawks were one of last season's biggest surprise teams, and after a productive offseason, the team is well-positioned for another playoff run. The addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes the Seattle passing game that much more dangerous, and Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen could form the league's best pair of young shutdown cornerbacks.
Los Angeles Rams: 6-11
Many are expecting a complete collapse after an exodus of veteran talent in the offseason. And in the long term, that might be for the best—in 2024 the Rams actually have their own first-round pick for the first time since 2016. But this is a team that won a Super Bowl two years ago, and with a healthy Matthew Stafford under center, the Rams could be a tougher out than some expect.
Arizona Cardinals: 4-13
It's going to be a long year for first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon in the desert. There's no telling when quarterback Kyler Murray (ACL) might be ready to play, veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is gone and there are changes galore on defense. The bigger question may be what the Cardinals will do with Murray if they land the No. 1 overall pick in 2024 and "win" the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.
Playoff Seeding
9 of 9
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
7. New York Jets (10-7)
NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
2. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
3. Detroit Lions (10-7)
4. New Orleans Saints (9-8)
5. New York Giants (10-7)
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
7. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
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