2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Based on 9 Lessons Learned from 2022 Season
With the start of the 2023 NFL campaign just over a month away, fantasy football draft season is finally upon us. It's one of the most exciting times of the year for fantasy managers, but August's optimism can quickly turn into a September sour if you don't make smart choices during your league's draft.
While it's occasionally good to have a short memory when playing this game—such as not putting too much into fluky, breakout games or panicking when a star player has a down week—it's also important to glean lessons from the data as well.
The 2022 fantasy season was full of interesting trends and stats, many of which you can use to your advantage when it comes to crafting your lineup in 2023.
With that in mind, here are nine lessons that were learned last year and how they can be applied to your upcoming draft.
All fantasy point data and rankings courtesy of FantasyPros.com using a PPR scoring system.
Young Quarterbacks Are Taking the League by Storm
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Get used to players like Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence ranking among the top quarterbacks in fantasy for the foreseeable future. These up-and-coming stars are all under the age of 25 and have already managed to make their mark by finishing in the top eight this past campaign. They are just entering the primes of their careers and will be smart picks not only in this year's upcoming draft but also many future ones as well.
Gone are the days when well-known, long-established quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady would dominate fantasy leagues.
With Brady's retirement following the 2022 season, there are only two quarterbacks over the age of 28 returning from last year's top-12 point scorers at the position. They aren't the perennial Pro Bowler types either, as 32-year-old Geno Smith (No. 5 QB) and 34-year-old Kirk Cousins (No. 7) were the only older signal-callers to hang with the youngsters last year.
Familiar faces such as Rodgers and Wilson fell from their lofty perches last year. Rodgers rated as the No. 13 quarterback after a down final season with the Green Bay Packers, while Wilson struggled mightily and finished as the No. 16 QB in his first year with the Denver Broncos.
Other elder statesmen like Matt Ryan (No. 26), Ryan Tannehill (No. 27) and Matthew Stafford (No. 32) slipped completely out of fantasy relevance and may never return.
When grabbing a quarterback during your draft, make sure they are on the right side of 30.
The Best Quarterbacks Are Worth a High Draft Pick
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Quarterbacks have, collectively, scored relatively large amounts of fantasy points in recent years, but the elite passers are putting up truly gaudy numbers. These performances separate them from their peers and help secure championships.
Fantasy managers who secured a top-end talent like Patrick Mahomes (428.4 points in 2022), Jalen Hurts (412.2 points) or Josh Allen (384 points)—the highest three scoring QBs last year—overwhelmingly found themselves in playoff contention. According to ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft, 15.2 percent of Allen's managers, 18 percent of Hurts' managers and a whopping 22.2 percent of Mahomes' managers went on to win a title last year.
There's a steep drop-off after these three and Joe Burrow, who should also be considered in the elite category after dropping 369 fantasy points last year. Geno Smith was fantasy's fifth-highest scoring QB with 314.9 points. Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins and Trevor Lawrence were the only other passers to eclipse the 300-point mark.
Half of the NFL starters didn't even surpass 240 points last year, making the difference between the best and the average at this position rather staggering. It may not guarantee you a championship, but picking someone like Mahomes or Hurts in your upcoming draft will go a long way towards getting you into the playoff field.
These players are worth their lofty ADP and can even be comfortably reached for a tad earlier than projected.
More Wideouts Than Ever are Worth First-Round Picks
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Conventional fantasy wisdom used to guide most managers toward an RB1 with their first pick. With most NFL teams taking platoon-based approaches to their backfield, coupled with an explosion of high-volume passing attacks, it's now generally a safer bet to go with a wideout in the opening round.
While the best backs are still going to outperform wideouts due to their consistent touches and production, it's becoming exceedingly tough to identify which rushers will get the volume needed to shine while managing to avoid injuries that inevitably come from a heavy workload.
Receivers are the more reliable choice these days—more of them eclipsed the 300-point mark than running backs last year—especially with a valuable top-12 pick. That shift is a major reason a wideout is now considered the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy for perhaps the first time ever.
Justin Jefferson (1.0 ADP) had a truly dominant season last year—finishing with 368.7 fantasy points, making him the No. 6 overall scorer in the league with nearly 30 more points than the next closest wideout—and has the potential to be even better in 2023. He's a slam-dunk choice at the top of a draft and should have no problems repeating his success.
Ja'Marr Chase (3.5 ADP), Cooper Kupp (5.3 ADP), Tyreek Hill (7.8 ADP), Stefon Diggs (10.8 ADP), CeeDee Lamb (13.5 ADP), Davante Adams (13.8 ADP) and A.J. Brown (14.8 ADP) would also all be completely reasonable first-rounders this year.
If you aren't absolutely enamored with one of the running backs available when you first get on the clock, don't shy away from taking one of these superstar receivers.
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Expect Big Production from Two-Wideout Offenses
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Teams that primarily rely on two wide receivers and don't spread the ball around much among their other wideouts tend to be a good source of fantasy production. There are several notable examples in the NFL, and this trend may be worth bumping up some of their pass-catchers in your draft rankings.
The Philadelphia Eagles primarily rely on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to reel in receptions. The pair combined for 183 receptions last year and each finished in the top eight among fantasy receivers, while Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal—the team's No. 3 and 4 wideouts—jointly caught just 48 balls.
There are other pairings that dominate target shares as well. The Miami Dolphins lean heavily on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with both putting up WR1 numbers last year despite the team's quarterback woes. The Seattle Seahawks have largely leaned on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to do the bulk of the pass-catching work and that shouldn't change in 2023.
While some of these teams, especially the Eagles, also have tight ends who are prominently involved in the offense, they ultimately don't take enough volume away from the receivers to make them any less potent in terms of fantasy output.
Keep an eye out for wideouts on rosters lacking depth or playing in a system that doesn't spread the ball around much and try to secure them when you are on the clock this year.
Be Wary of Rookie Receivers
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Wide receivers tend to be safer bets than their peers at both the running back and the tight end positions during a fantasy draft, but managers should still exercise caution and be careful about buying into the hype surrounding the league's youngest pass-catchers. Rookies can be especially volatile and won't always live up to the hype that often surrounds them due to their potential and ceiling.
Last season saw a slight reversal of course after both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns each featured four different first-year wideouts notching at least 60 receptions and 800 yards. Three rookie receivers reached that mark last year, but none truly dominated the way that Ja'Marr Chase (81 catches, 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2021) and Justin Jefferson (88 catches, 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns in 2020) did in their NFL debuts.
The 2023 wideout class was shallower than recent drafts as well. An average of 6.5 receivers were taken across the first 34 picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts, but only four came over the board in that span this year. Not a single WR was taken in the top 19 in 2023, while six had been selected between Nos. 1-18 in 2022.
Some rookies—most notably first-round picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers—should get a fair chance to shine this year, but temper expectations for a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign and draft accordingly.
Reaching 60 catches and 800 yards with a few scores would be a better-than-expected start for any of these players.
Embrace the Safe Running Back
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With more and more fantasy players taking wideouts in the early rounds, running backs will inevitably slip down the board. These may not be big-name stars such as Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler, but someone like Rahmondre Stevenson—the No. 11 RB on FantasyPros' rankings—could still be sitting there well past his ADP of No. 27 overall.
Players like Jamaal Williams (2022 ADP No. 52) and Josh Jacobs (2022 ADP No. 21) didn't have a lot of appeal heading into last year's campaign, but they went on to greatly outperform their draft positions. The former led the league in rushing touchdowns and finished as the No. 13 RB, while the latter earned the rushing crown and posted the third-most fantasy points at his position.
If you see a 'boring' back falling down a round or two, don't hesitate to capitalize on the value. They may not be the next Jacobs, but they should make for a relatively safe pick who could provide a great return on investment.
Avoid Players Recovering from Knee Injuries
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There are always a few banged-up veterans lurking in a fantasy draft who may entice managers to roll the dice on their health.
It's a major risk to use anything but a very late-round selection on a player who isn't guaranteed to return to full strength—let alone get back on the field at all—after suffering a major injury. If there's a chance they will miss time during the upcoming season, it's generally wise to stay away. Knee injuries are especially tricky and should almost always be avoided when drafting for value.
That lesson was readily apparent last year when several big-name players coming off ACL tears were drafted by hopeful managers. Fantasy staples like Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Godwin, Robert Woods and Michael Gallup—as well as first-round rookie Jameson Williams—all were rehabbing knee ailments last offseason. Godwin was the only one who returned and made any sort of worthwhile impact last year, appearing in 15 games and finishing as the No. 19 receiver.
There aren't as many star receivers returning from ACL tears this year, but be wary of rostering Sterling Shepard or Wan'Dale Robinson due to this trend. Tim Patrick, another receiver coming off a torn ACL, was carted off with an Achilles tear on Monday and will miss the entire 2023 campaign..
Running backs are also a risk if they've suffered an ACL tear. J.K. Dobbins only saw action in eight games last year, getting shut down to further repair his knee after it cost him the entire 2021 campaign. Breece Hall and Javonte Williams are the two most well-known backs entering 2023 in a similar situation and should give managers pause when they are on the clock.
Complementary Players and Handcuffs are Risky
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It seems like every fantasy draft has a manager who opts to draft a primary backup playing behind the top-ranked running back far too early. The idea that they'll be able to capitalize on an injury to the superstar has some merit, but these types of decisions rarely pay off.
Backfields are already murky enough going into a new season and trying to suss out how a team might handle the workload in wake of an injury is a foolish endeavor.
While there have been some clear-cut handcuff cases in the past—such as Alexander Mattison being fed in any game that Dalvin Cook missed over the last few years—those situations are few and far between.
When Derrick Henry went down for over half the season in 2021, the Tennessee Titans went out and signed D'Onta Foreman off the street and gave him the lion's share of work over entrenched backup Dontrell Hilliard. There are too many unknown variables to consider when it comes to injury replacements, so it's generally just worth waiting on news to break before making a waiver claim.
Players in significant time shares should also be avoided due to their low chance of posting worthwhile fantasy numbers. While Jamaal Williams managed to lead the league in rushing touchdowns despite backing up D'Andre Swift last year, that situation was more of an exception than a rule. Rotational pieces such as James Cook, Chase Edmonds, Nyheim Hines and Kenneth Gainwell all failed to get enough volume to be startable in most formats.
While it might not be a terrible idea to target a handcuff or complementary talent in deeper leagues, managers in standard formats will want to steer clear and use that roster spot on a more guaranteed contributor.
Don't Take a TE Too Early
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Fantasy football's tight end position remains extremely top heavy with a dearth of reliable talent outside the very best players.
Travis Kelce may finish his career as the game's all-time best TE and has shown no signs of slowing down—making him well worth his mid-first-round ADP—but the fall-off is steep after the Kansas City Chiefs star.
FantasyPros doesn't have another TE ranked in their top 25 overall, with Mark Andrews coming in as the TE2 at No. 27.
If you don't land Kelce, and to a lesser extent Andrews, it's best to wait and try to capitalize on upside. Someone like Darren Waller, who is a TE5 with an ADP of 59, could provide some great value in the middle rounds. Don't panic and reach for him if there's a run on the position, but if he falls to the fifth round, it's worth making a bet that he returns to his former glory during his first season with the New York Giants.
Outside of the known entities, there are also some rookies worth keeping an eye on. The 2023 class had some intriguing TE talent enter the league, including Dalton Kincaid (TE13, 134.3 ADP), Sam LaPorta (TE19, 173.0 ADP) and Michael Mayer (TE21, 187.0 ADP). Throwing a dart at one of them in the latter rounds may pay dividends.
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