8 Prominent NFL Players Headed into a Make-or-Break 2023 Season
On Tuesday, nine NFL teams welcomed rookies to training camp, which means the action on the football field will ramp up in the coming days. In the summer heat, several players will face immense pressure to perform at a level that matches their draft status or justifies a pay raise during or after the 2023 season.
As summer offseason programs begin, we'll shine a light on eight notable players headed into a make-or-break campaign. Most of these young veterans came into the league as first-round picks, though a recent second-round pick will go into a pivotal year after he skipped mandatory minicamp for a contract-related matter.
Our list includes two players who had a strong career start with Pro Bowl rookie campaigns, but they both saw a significant drop-off in production because of injuries or underwhelming performances on the field.
As the common thread, all eight players could see a dramatic swing in their career outlook with a standout or disappointing 2023 season.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
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J.K. Dobbins doesn't have to play up to first-round expectations, but he wants a new deal, which adds some pressure to his 2023 campaign.
Dobbins expressed frustration with his current contract situation while he sat out of mandatory minicamp practices (h/t ESPN's Jamison Hensley).
Because of a down year for the running back market, Dobbins will likely play out the final year of his rookie contract in hopes to cash in on free agency next offseason. In order to earn a significant pay raise, Dobbins must top his numbers from the 2020 and 2022 terms.
In his rookie year, Dobbins rushed for 805 yards and nine touchdowns and then he missed the entire 2021 campaign with a torn ACL that also slowed his start to the 2022 term.
If Dobbins goes into the 2023 campaign healthy, he can lead the Ravens in rushing. He may also see an expanded role in the passing game under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who, per to The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec, wants to get the running backs involved in the passing attack.
In 23 games, Dobbins has 25 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown. With more pass-catching opportunities, he could command a decent salary bump on the open market. On the other hand, Dobbins will find it challenging to draw suitors without a well-rounded stat sheet in the upcoming term.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
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Among the eight selections, Justin Fields may have the biggest make-or-break season.
First and foremost, Fields must prove he's a starting-caliber quarterback under a regime that didn't draft him.
This offseason, general manager Ryan Poles acquired wideout DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers, and head coach Matt Eberflus has praised Fields for improvements in his footwork, but they need to see results.
If the Bears finish at the bottom of the NFC North with a record that slots them in the top five for the 2024 draft, team brass could look to replace Fields with a blue-chip quarterback prospect.
Fields believes he's one of the top five best running quarterbacks ever to play the game, but he must make strides as a passer to secure a long-term future in Chicago. In three seasons, Fields has thrown for 24 touchdowns and 21 interceptions with a 59.7 percent completion rate.
Though Fields showed flashes with his arm in the previous two years, he has to rack up more yards and scores through the air with a decent pass-catching group that includes Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan.
If not, Fields may have to look for a second chance to prove himself elsewhere in 2024.
Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots
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In his 2021 rookie year, Mac Jones earned a Pro Bowl nod, but he regressed in the following season without former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who took over the Las Vegas Raiders' head-coaching job in 2022.
After McDaniels' departure, the Patriots turned to Matt Patricia, a former defensive coordinator, and Joe Judge to call the offense, which stunted Jones' development.
NBC Sports' Chris Simms said Jones criticized the Patriots' offensive system behind head coach Bill Belichick's back, which caused some tension.
According to ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio, Belichick "shopped" Jones on the trade market this offseason. Though Jones seems like the clear-cut starter in New England, he may need to mend some fences with his head coach, per The Boston Globe's Ben Volin.
"It's clear Patriots president Jonathan Kraft passionately defends and protects Jones," Volin wrote. "The Krafts are invested in Jones succeeding. Belichick, meanwhile, barely wants to say his name in public."
With speculation around Belichick's job security, Jones may outlast the six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach in New England, but if he underwhelms under new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, Bailey Zappe, who went 2-0 as a starter last year, could push for the starting role at the end of the campaign or next offseason.
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Javon Kinlaw, DT, San Francisco 49ers
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Before Javon Kinlaw steps foot on the practice field for training camp, he's going to feel added pressure in a rotational role.
In three injury-riddled seasons, Kinlaw started in 22 out of 24 games, registering 45 tackles, three for loss, 1.5 sacks and 14 pressures.
The San Francisco 49ers have expressed disappointment in Kinlaw through their offseason moves, declining his fifth-year option and signing starting defensive tackle Javon Hargrave.
If Arik Armstead plays a majority of his snaps next to Hargrave on the interior, Kinlaw will have limited time on the field. With that said, he can still make the most of his opportunities, which would allow the 49ers to exercise creativity with their defensive front. Keep in mind that Armstead has the ability to line up on the edge.
Next offseason, Kinlaw could draw significant interest in free agency if the 49ers let him test the open market. To generate some buzz, he must rack up pressures and sacks in a healthy 2023 season. Remember, defensive tackles who have shown the ability to rush the passer, like Hargrave, signed lucrative deals this offseason.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
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Jordan Love is in a unique situation. The Green Bay Packers signed him to a new contract before his first full season as a starter, which puts the 24-year-old under the microscope.
Moreover, Love replaces four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers, whom the Packers traded to the New York Jets. On top of that, wide receiver Romeo Doubs said, "I don't really see what's the big difference" in regards to the transition from Rodgers to Love.
Love should get more than one year to prove himself, but he may not have another chance to do so in Green Bay if the Packers fall to the bottom of the standings and secure a high draft pick. Aside from Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, a handful of quarterback prospects could draw interest from teams that will consider a quarterback in the first round of next year's draft.
Love doesn't have to lead Green Bay to the playoffs to hold on to his job, though he must show some promise right out of the gate on a new deal. He's had three years to study the playbook and learn behind Rodgers.
Love could make the Packers look brilliant for pivoting from Rodgers this year. On the flip side, if he has a subpar campaign, Green Bay may consider plan B for the quarterback position in the post-Rodgers era.
Kenneth Murray Jr., LB, Los Angeles Chargers
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Kenneth Murray Jr. battled competition for his position two years into his pro career. After missing five games with an ankle injury in the first half of the 2021 season, he took a backseat to Drue Tranquill for several games in the second half of the campaign.
In March, Tranquill signed with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Murray isn't a lock to start throughout the 2023 term. The Chargers signed inside linebacker Eric Kendricks and selected Daiyan Henley in the third round of this year's draft.
Even though Murray is an athletic linebacker, he's struggled in coverage, allowing a 112.9 and 129.2 passer rating in his first two seasons, respectively.
As a pass defender, Murray made strides in the previous campaign, allowing an 86.3 passer rating in coverage, but he must show continued improvement in that part of his game to stay on the field for third downs with Henley behind him on the depth chart.
In his last two collegiate years, Henley recorded five interceptions. He could carve out a decent role if Murray struggles to keep up with pass-catchers in the middle of the field.
Like running back, guard and safety, linebacker isn't a premium position. A one-dimensional linebacker isn't going to garner a lot of attention on the open market. Murray has to put his range in coverage on full display this year.
Isaiah Simmons, DB, Arizona Cardinals
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Former Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph may have put too much on Isaiah Simmons' plate. For two years, the versatile defender lined up primarily in the box but played a majority of his snaps in the slot last season.
Simmons' boxscore numbers look solid; he's recorded 258 tackles, 13 for loss, 7.5 sacks, 16 pass breakups, four interceptions and seven forced fumbles. Yet he's going into a contract year because the new regime declined to pick up his fifth-year option.
Perhaps Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon would like to see how Simmons fits in his system before investing in him on the premium pay scale.
Whatever the case, Simmons can play his way into an extended future with the Cardinals or test the open market with a strong showing in 2023. If he doesn't shine as a defensive back in Arizona's new system, teams may be wary about signing him in free agency because of his questionable fit within an NFL defense.
Chase Young, DE, Washington Commanders
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Despite winning Defensive Rookie of the Year and earning a Pro Bowl nod in 2020, Chase Young lands on this list because of a significant decline in his production over the past two years. He has an uncertain future with the Washington Commanders, and his earning potential will take a hit if he continues to disappear in the pass rush.
In 2021, Young played nine games before he tore his ACL, recording just 26 tackles, three for loss, 1.5 sacks and 13 pressures. In the following campaign, he missed the first 14 games and finished with five tackles, a pass breakup and a pressure while on the field for 115 snaps.
Though Young reported to the Commanders' facility healthy for voluntary workouts, the team declined to pick up his fifth-year option.
Even with the accolades on Young's resume, he's going into a prove-it year. Before tearing his ACL, Young put together a string of lackluster performances, though the club probably wants to see him healthy for an extended period to properly assess his future.
With recent trade buzz around his name (h/t The MMQB's Albert Breer), Young's 2023 season will significantly impact his short-term future in Washington and long-term career outlook if a team is willing to open up the checkbook for him in 2024.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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