7 NFL Wide Receivers in Best Position for Breakout Season in 2023
Identifying wide receivers who are primed for a breakout year—especially given the popularity of fantasy football—has become a staple of the NFL offseason.
While the definition of a "breakout" season is a bit nebulous, the context for each candidate is important. Some players have little previous NFL production, and others—such as Jahan Dotson or Christian Watson—could improve from, say, 600 yards to 1,000.
For our purposes, though, the cutoff is players who haven't yet exceeded 500 yards in any pro season but have, thanks to favorable circumstances, at least 800-yard potential in 2023.
Rookies are not considered because the focus is on wideouts who can be compared to their past performance.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
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Yes, there's a small asterisk with Rondale Moore. Had he stayed healthy last season, Moore easily would have surpassed 500 yards.
Injuries limited him to 414 yards in eight games, however, so the Arizona Cardinals hit pause on a breakout year. That possibility remains in 2023, no matter when quarterback Kyler Murray (knee) is ready.
Marquise Brown should be the Cardinals' key receiver, but DeAndre Hopkins' departure opens up 96 targets. Moore is well-positioned to command a strong number of those passes.
And he certainly should score more, too. Through two years, he's managed a lone touchdown in each season.
Moore's production is set to rise significantly, despite the likelihood that Arizona has a disappointing record.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
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John Metchie III is a prime candidate, although he technically doesn't fit the criteria. He missed the 2022 season because of a form of leukemia and has no production baseline to measure.
Nico Collins, meanwhile, is someone who's seemingly been on the verge of a breakout that just hasn't quite happened.
As a rookie, he notched 33 catches for 446 yards and one score. Last year, Collins edged up to 37 receptions for 481 yards and two touchdowns before a foot injury ended his season in early December.
But it seems like the 2023 season is a perfect opportunity.
Not only did the Houston Texans draft quarterback C.J. Stroud, they also shipped top wideout Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys. Collins is now expected to hold the No. 1 role in the Texans' receiving corps.
Even if Houston has a tough season as expected, Collins can establish himself as Stroud's go-to target.
Tyquan Thornton, New England Patriots
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Tyquan Thornton flashed his upside with a two-touchdown outing in his second appearance as a rookie.
Now, the task is sustaining a higher level of production.
Although he logged 66 percent of snaps over 13 games, Thornton tallied just 22 receptions for 247 yards and totaled three scores. He reeled in multiple catches in just five of those outings.
Part of that inconsistency can be attributed to the New England Patriots not having a genuine offensive coordinator, which has been rectified via the hiring of Bill O'Brien. Another part is Thornton's own development, which theoretically helps him for the 2023 season.
Free-agent addition JuJu Smith-Schuster—effectively the replacement for Jakobi Meyers—should lead the Patriots. But it's easy to envision Thornton soaring past DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne in target share.
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Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
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Romeo Doubs parlayed a strong showing in the preseason into a steady role for the Green Bay Packers.
When healthy, he played 62 percent of snaps. Doubs finished the campaign with 42 catches for 425 yards and a touchdown, emerging as a building block for the future alongside fellow rookie Christian Watson.
But as Green Bay transitions from Aaron Rodgers to the Jordan Love era, the receiving corps is also changing. Allen Lazard, who paced the team in yards and receptions last year, also headed to the New York Jets. Randall Cobb followed Rodgers to the Jets, too.
And the Packers didn't bring in a single veteran replacement.
The tactic might work—Watson is a next-tier breakout candidate after collecting 611 yards, and second-round pick Jayden Reed may start immediately—but it's clear Green Bay will be leaning on Doubs in 2023.
Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
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This is probably an either/or type of situation, but it feels unfair to mention Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney without the other.
Smith-Schuster left for the Patriots, Mecole Hardman joined the Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs didn't replace them in free agency. Although the Chiefs added Rashee Rice in the second round of the draft, he's not expected to hold a starting role in 2023.
That leaves Moore and Toney as the next-best options behind tight end Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
And you can be sure Patrick Mahomes will be throwing often.
Expecting both receivers to have a breakout season is a stretch—barring an injury to Kelce or MVS, of course—but one of Moore and Toney should have a strong year in Kansas City's prolific offense.
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans
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Among the receivers listed, no one is facing more pressure to have a breakout season than Treylon Burks.
There's the unfair context of being the Tennessee Titans' choice with the draft pick received in the A.J. Brown trade. There's the reality that any first-round selection has substantial expectations. And there's the matter of now being the most talented wideout on the roster.
So, yeah, it's a big season for Burks.
Between injuries and Tennessee's bad quarterback situation, Burks closed his rookie year with 33 catches for 444 yards and one touchdown. For the Titans to actually compete in 2023, they likely need him to double that production—with many more trips to the end zone.
Burks, though, has a mountain of potential and is formally the main target after the team released Robert Woods this offseason.
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