MLB's 10 Most Intriguing Storylines to Track Post-2023 All-Star Break
With the first half of the 2023 season and the All-Star festivities in the books, it's all quiet on the Major League Baseball front. Yet the silence will only last until the second half begins on Friday.
Since it figures to be a doozy, we've previewed 10 especially big storylines to track as the '23 campaign careens toward its inevitable conclusion.
The trade deadline? That's a check. Players looking to achieve historic feats? Also a check. The fates of various playoff races in the American League and National League? Definitely a check.
We've kinda-sorta ranked the 10 storylines we picked out, but the order more so unfolds in a way that makes narrative sense.
10. Does Anyone Actually Want to Win the AL Central?
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If ever there was a case for why MLB should adopt an NBA-style playoff structure—wherein the outcomes of division races don't matter—it's what's happening in the AL Central.
The Cleveland Guardians are in line to repeat as division champions, but with a bit less style than they had amid their 92-70 romp through 2022. They're 45-45 and have never been more than three games over .500.
As the Minnesota Twins were once six games over the break-even point, they at least have the Guardians beat in that regard. But at 45-46, they're not so much chasing the Guardians for first place as standing, hands in pockets, waiting for them to fall down.
And yet, the question of why anyone outside of Ohio and Minnesota should care about this race does have a good answer.
Because the Twins and Guardians rank second and sixth in the AL in ERA, respectively, each has the pitching to potentially play spoiler in October against ostensibly superior teams. And as we'll discuss, it's not like there's a clear favorite in the American League anyway.
9. Can the Rays and Rangers Hold On?
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When the first half concluded on Sunday, it marked 101 days since Opening Day. Every single one was a day that the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers held at least a share of first place.
Good job, guys. Now don't screw it up.
Surely, it sounds like we're saying this in jest, but we're serious and...well, you know the line. The Rays are 29-28 since going fully bonkers with a 29-7 start, while the Rangers hit the proverbial skids by losing 19 of 31 after winning 40 of their first 60.
The Rays' AL East lead is down to two games over the Baltimore Orioles, who have pretty much graduated from upstarts to upstanding citizens. The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees (more on them later) are also lurking, and even the Boston Red Sox aren't out of it.
The Rangers' lead in the AL West is likewise down to two games. And while their league-best offense has thus far maintained remarkable consistency, the team's ERA just keeps going up. As the Houston Astros lead the AL in that department, the blood is firmly in the water.
8. How Will the NL West Shake Out?
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Meanwhile in the National League, the NL West standings don't resemble a proper order so much as somebody having randomly spilled the five member clubs onto a spreadsheet.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (51-38) being in first place tracks with recent history, but nobody could have predicted that they would end the first half with just one more win the Arizona Diamondbacks (52-39). Or, for that matter, the San Diego Padres (43-47) being in fourth place behind the San Francisco Giants (49-41).
Who's the favorite to win the darned thing? Heck if we know.
FanGraphs gives the Dodgers a 61.4 percent chance, but it's hard to feel that bullish after gazing at their injured list and seeing Clayton Kershaw among a dozen out-of-commission pitchers. And as if to prove their worth, the D-backs and the Giants both have winning records against the Dodgers.
The Padres wish they could claim as much, yet sleeping on them is a bad idea. Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove comprise MLB's hottest pitching duo, and the club's supposedly vaunted offense has been actually vaunted of late. Only three clubs have scored more runs since June 1.
7. Time for the Reds to Prove They're for Real
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In the NL Central, first place seemed pretty well out of reach for the Cincinnati Reds even as recently as May 25, when they were a season-high eight games below .500.
Yet first place is where the ol' Redlegs are at 50-41. And when we say "ol'," understand what we really mean is "young, exciting and utterly easy to root for."
Though a rejuvenated Joey Votto and rookies Spencer Steer, Matt McClain and Andrew Abbott are also to be credited, fellow rookie Elly De La Cruz is the one who's been driving the Reds since his debut on June 6. He's been, in a word, sensational.
Only Atlanta has outscored the Reds since the ELDC Era began, much less done better than the club's 23-8 record therewithin. If the Reds can so much as pitch a little better, their one-game edge on the Milwaukee Brewers will be more liable to grow than shrink.
To this end, the Reds might not even have to buy on the summer trade market. They might simply wait for resident flamethrower Hunter Greene to recover from right hip pain and reclaim his rightful place atop their starting rotation.
6. Trade Deadline Madness!
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Of course, any one of the playoff races we've discussed could get a major shake-up in just a few weeks' time. The Aug. 1 trade deadline is nigh.
It won't be easy for this year's deadline to live up to those of 2021, which saw Max Scherzer and Trea Turner get moved in the same deal, or 2022, which was dominated by the Juan Soto sweepstakes. Especially, that is, if a certain Los Angeles Angel isn't made available.
But at the least, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox will be open for business. Both have plenty to offer, including left-hander Jordan Montgomery and a surplus of young outfielders on St. Louis' part and ace right-hander Lucas Giolito on Chicago's.
Elsewhere in Chicago, plenty of eyes will be on the Cubs in the coming weeks. Should their 42-47 record diminish even further, players who could hit the market include 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger and All-Star righty Marcus Stroman.
Other presumptive sellers include the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, and maybe even the New York Mets if owner Steve Cohen decides to pull the plug on his $350 million gamble.
5. How Much Fight Do the Mets Have Left in Them?
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We'd like the record to show that the last sentence on the previous slide included a conspicuous "maybe."
It would be quite the story if the Mets went into sell mode, and that much more so if they labeled nobody as untouchable. Even Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, they of the $43.3 million salaries and six total Cy Young Awards, could conceivably end up as trade bait.
Though Cohen wanted nothing to do with Verlander/Scherzer speculation when he held a press conference on June 28, he notably wasn't a firm no on selling in general.
"All is not lost yet, but it's getting late," the 67-year-old told reporters. "I'm preparing my management team for all possibilities. If they don't get better, we have decisions to make at the trade deadline. That's not my preferred end result. We're preparing all contingencies."
Coincidentally or not, the Mets promptly began July by ripping off six straight wins and went into the break with a non-disastrous 42-48 record. And with José Quintana due back soon, a rotation that was supposed to be MLB's best is about to be whole for the first time all year.
4. The Fate of the Yankees (and Specifically Their Offense)
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Let's channel Charles Dickens for a second and separate the Yankees' year into a tale of two seasons:
- Through June 3: 35-25, 4.7 R/G
- Since June 4: 14-17, 3.8 R/G
The second season is a bit less inspiring than the first, and it's already caused (really committing to the Dickens bit here) one head to roll. When the Yankees fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson on Sunday, it marked the first time that general manager Brian Cashman had ever let go of a coach in the middle of a season.
But was the Yankees' slide really a Lawson problem? Or was it an Aaron Judge problem?
That fateful day of June 3 was the one in which the reigning AL MVP sustained what we now know was a serious toe injury. The Yankees will be without arguably the most feared hitter in baseball until he's back, and when that is seems to be anyone's guess.
In the meantime, new hitting coach Sean Casey must do what he can. Getting more out of the 30-something husks of Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and Josh Donaldson in particular seems like a tough gig for anyone, much less a guy who's never held any kind of coaching position before now.
3. Can Luis Arraez Resurrect His Pursuit of .400?
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We regret to inform you that Luis Arraez, heretofore the hottest hitter on the planet, was last seen cooling off.
The Miami Marlins second baseman's average hasn't been below .371 at any point this season, and it was up over .400 as recently as June 24. Thus was it possible to wonder if Ted Williams' .406 average from 1941 wouldn't remain the last of its kind for long.
Well, then Arraez hit "just" .291 between then and the close of the first half. His average is down to .383. That's still Rod Carew, George Brett and Tony Gwynn territory, but it's not Splendid Splinter territory.
The pursuit, though, is obviously far from over. It's also far from hopeless.
If any guy is going to hit .400, why not the best line-drive hitter in MLB today and the best contact hitter the league has seen since Gwynn? Arraez is this guy, and the fact that the Marlins are largely relying on him to get them to the playoffs can only further motivate him.
2. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Atlanta Aim for History
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Though the Marlins have a good shot at nabbing a wild-card spot, the window for them, the Philadelphia Phillies or the Mets to win the NL East already seems closed.
Atlanta shut it, and they might as well have nailed it shut in the last few weeks before the All-Star break. All they did was win 27 of 32, pushing their record to a league-best 60-29 and their lead in the division to 8.5 games.
The pace Atlanta is on leads to a 110-win season, which would unseat the 106-win team from 1998 as the best in franchise history. And with Max Fried and Kyle Wright, who combined for 35 wins in 2022, due back in the second half, this year's team may yet have another gear.
Then there's Ronald Acuña Jr., who's so thoroughly on one that DraftKings is taking bets as to whether he'll become the fifth member of the 40-40 Club.
If anything, that's thinking too small. With 21 home runs and 41 stolen bases already to his name, Acuña is more so on track for a 40-75 season. Rickey Henderson, eat your heart out.
1. Basically Everything Shohei Ohtani
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Elsewhere on the topic of betting odds, Acuña is naturally the favorite to win the NL MVP. He's not such a favorite, though, that he has the race to himself like the frontrunner for the AL MVP.
Heck, maybe the only thing that could keep winning Shohei Ohtani from winning his second MVP is if he gets traded to the National League.
At least in the abstract, it's only becoming easier to make the case that the Angels should trade their two-way superstar. Mike Trout's latest injury and a 4-13 skid have sidetracked a once promising season, and Ohtani himself is openly yearning for Ws.
"Those feelings get stronger year by year," Ohtani said through his interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, during the All-Star festivities. "It sucks to lose. He wants to win, so it gets stronger every year."
But if the chatter that Ohtani won't be going anywhere ultimately rings true, it's not as if he'll cease to be newsworthy. Even setting aside the frequency with which he looks like the best pitcher in baseball, his 32 home runs give him a non-zero chance of limiting Judge's reign as the American League's single-season home run champ to a single year.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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