6 MLB Teams Primed for a 2nd-Half Surge into the 2023 Playoffs
For the teams that entered Major League Baseball's 2023 All-Star break out of the postseason picture, the glass-half-full perspective is that there is plenty of season yet to be played. A lot can change in 2.5 months, like in 2015 when Toronto and Texas both entered the break with a sub-.500 record before posting the AL's best and second-best records in the second half of the season to each win their division.
The glass-half-empty perspective is that those teams were very much the exception to the rule.
Since MLB expanded the postseason to 10 teams for 2012, there have been just four clubs that made the playoffs after entering the break with a losing record: 2015 Toronto Blue Jays (45-46), 2015 Texas Rangers (42-46), 2017 Chicago Cubs (43-45) and 2021 St. Louis Cardinals (44-46).
Those four teams and the 2021 Atlanta Braves (44-44) were also the only squads to make the postseason after entering the break at least 4.0 games back for a playoff spot.
The postseason field expanded to 12 teams for last season, but that didn't exactly pave the way for second-half comebacks. The only teams that "surged" into the playoffs were Cleveland (46-44, 2.0 GB in AL Central) and St. Louis (50-44, 0.5 GB in NL Central).
Second-half comebacks do happen, though. They're usually teams overcoming a deficit of two games or fewer, but on average, there have been 2.4 teams per year (dating back to 2012) that made the postseason despite trailing at the All-Star break.
Who will do it this year?
Based on a combination of remaining schedule, roster health, recent performance and a whole lot of gut feeling, we're picking one "gee, thanks, Captain Obvious" team, one solid candidate and one reasonable long shot from each league to erase its current deficit and make the playoffs.
Records, statistics and postseason odds current through the start of play Friday.
American League's 'Captain Obvious' Team: New York Yankees
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Record: 49-42, +20 run differential, 8.0 GB in AL East, 1.0 GB for wild card
Recent Record: 15-18 since June 1; 4-6 since July 1
Remaining Schedule Rank: 16th
To Make the Playoffs: -155
Though the New York Yankees are presently in fourth place in the AL East and flailing enough to have already fired their hitting coach, doesn't it still feel inevitable that they will at least be hanging around the playoff picture until the bitter end?
They're just one game behind both the Blue Jays and the Astros for a wild-card spot, and they aren't completely out of the conversation for winning the division, thanks to Tampa Bay losing seven of its last eight games.
With Carlos Rodón finally back on the mound, an already solid pitching staff should be even better in the second half.
You can also take it to the bank that they're going to trade for at least one of the biggest names on the market. (Most likely a hitter; quite possibly Cody Bellinger if the Cubs fade enough to sell.)
But, of course, the big variable is Aaron Judge's availability.
The reigning AL MVP is still leading the Yankees in both home runs and RBI, even though he has not played since suffering his toe injury on June 3.
They were 10 games above .500 and averaging 4.7 runs per game when he got hurt. They've gone 14-17 since then, averaging 3.8 runs per game.
That's not a coincidence. They need him back soon. And he has maintained it's not a season-ending injury, even though every new report on the sprained big toe seems to sound worse than the last.
If he's back by August 1 (and doesn't reaggravate the injury in a hurry), New York will make the playoffs. If not...we'll see. The Yankees do at least have a much easier remaining schedule than Toronto has.
National League's 'Captain Obvious' Team: Philadelphia Phillies
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Record: 48-41, +9 run differential, 12.0 GB in NL East, 0.5 GB for wild card
Recent Record: 23-11 since June 1; 5-3 since July 1
Remaining Schedule Rank: 19th
To Make the Playoffs: -200
Winning the NL East is simply not within the realm of possibility for the Philadelphia Phillies. While the other five division favorites have betting odds of -110, -115, -145, -210 and -230, Atlanta is sitting at -5000 with the best record in baseball.
But a wild-card spot?
Philadelphia should get a wild-card spot.
Didn't feel like it six weeks ago when the Phillies were seven games below .500 with a roster full of overpaid underachievers?
Dating back to June 3, though, Philadelphia's 23-9 record would be the best in baseball were it not for Atlanta's ridiculous 27-5 run.
There's still plenty of room for the offense to improve, too, as Bryce Harper hasn't homered since May 25, and Trea Turner is still only batting .269 over his last 32 games.
And that's a real credit to how much better the pitching staff has been as of late, allowing an MLB-low 3.4 runs per game since June 3.
Can't very well bank on Taijuan Walker continuing to win every single start he makes, nor Craig Kimbrel remaining one of the most dominant closers in the game. But it's certainly a good enough staff to get back to the playoffs.
Also of note: The Phillies have one of the most favorable remaining schedules in the National League. They only have seven games left against a current division leader, and those don't come until mid-September against Atlanta. Prior to those games, they'll play 32 of 53 against teams that are currently .500 or worse.
Not only have they been hot, but they're also set up well to remain hot. They should be able to chase down San Francisco or Miami.
American League's Solid Candidate: Minnesota Twins
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Record: 45-46, +27 run differential, 0.5 GB in AL Central, 5.0 GB for wild card
Recent Record: 16-19 since June 1; 4-4 since July 1
Remaining Schedule Rank: 30th
To Make the Playoffs: -145
It's frankly ridiculous that the Twins aren't winning the woeful AL Central, considering they have had the best pitching staff in baseball. (15-2 loss to Baltimore to close out the first half notwithstanding.)
Prior to getting swept in that three-game set against the Orioles, the Twins had a plus-46 run differential and should have been 49-39 with a comfortable lead over Cleveland.
But such is life with an unreliable offense.
Of the 301 players with at least 160 plate appearances this season, 76 have an OPS of at least .800. But despite ranking eighth in the majors with 115 home runs, the Twins do not have a single player in that club.
Thanks in part to Minnesota's having the highest strikeout rate in the majors, simply getting on base has been a season-long struggle for the team. The Twins have been held to two runs or fewer in 36 of 91 games played. (They did still win six of those games, when the great pitching staff bailed out the offense by tossing a shutout.)
Regardless of how poor/inconsistent the offense has been, though, how can you bet against a team that is just 0.5 games back in its division with MLB's easiest remaining schedule?
Particularly when the team that they are in a two-horse race with (Cleveland) has the 15th-most difficult remaining schedule, a negative run differential and presumably little to no room in the budget to do anything significant at the trade deadline?
St. Louis was in pretty much the exact same spot at last year's All-Star break—0.5 games behind Milwaukee with the easiest remaining schedule—and ended up winning the NL Central by a seven-game margin.
Suffice it to say, there's a reason Minnesota is still a -145 favorite to win the AL Central.
(But if you're going to bet on it, please do at least take the Twins at -145 to make the playoffs as opposed to -145 to win the AL Central. For the exact same payout, you might as well at least get their wild-card chances in there, too.)
National League's Solid Candidate: Milwaukee Brewers
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Record: 49-42, -13 run differential, 1.0 GB in NL Central, 0.5 GB for wild card
Recent Record: 20-16 since June 1; 6-3 since July 1
Remaining Schedule Rank: 13th
To Make the Playoffs: -145
Milwaukee isn't quite as likely to make the postseason as Philadelphia is, but half a game back in the wild-card race and just one game behind Cincinnati in the NL Central is a pretty good place to be.
In fact, the Brewers are the only team not currently in the postseason picture but also within 4.5 games of both the division lead and a wild-card spot.
But will they ever get the offense going?
At .232/.312/.378, Milwaukee ranks dead last in the National League in all three categories. Willy Adames, Joey Wiemer and Rowdy Tellez have each hit at least a dozen home runs but are also each batting .213 or worse. And arguably their biggest offseason acquisition, Jesse Winker, has been a colossal bust, batting .200 with one homer.
It's kind of a miracle they're seven games above .500, considering Corbin Burnes has been just OK compared to his normal standard of excellence while Brandon Woodruff made just two starts before landing on the IL.
Getting the latter of those co-aces back soon would be huge.
The latest report from Sunday was that Woodruff looked and felt good after a 25-pitch bullpen session. He still needs to progress to facing live batters and then go on a rehab assignment, so he probably won't make it back until early August at best. That would be a classic "not a trade, but feels like a big trade" sort of roster addition—like what San Diego was hoping for with Fernando Tatis Jr. last year before his suspension.
Will they still be in contention by the time he gets back, though?
Milwaukee's first 15 games after the All-Star break are against Cincinnati (six), Atlanta (six) and Philadelphia (three). It's a double-edged sword in which the Brewers could pull ahead of two teams they're basically tied with right now, or they could go 4-11, fall half a dozen games behind the Reds and embrace a fire sale.
American League's Reasonable Long Shot: Seattle Mariners
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Record: 45-44, +36 run differential, 6.0 GB in AL West, 4.0 GB for wild card
Recent Record: 16-17 since June 1; 7-2 since July 1
Remaining Schedule Rank: 27th
To Make the Playoffs: +265
Seattle entered the All-Star break on fire, and that hot play came against teams that are in position to make the playoffs no less, winning consecutive series against the Rays, Giants and Astros.
In particular, the starting pitching has been on point, making nine starts in July with a minuscule 1.82 ERA.
But what else is new? It's the starting pitching that has kept Seattle afloat all season, with Luis Castillo and George Kirby named to an All-Star roster for which Logan Gilbert reasonably could have made the cut, too.
As with Minnesota and Milwaukee, the Mariners just have to do something to wake up the offense.
We previously mentioned that the Twins have no players with at least 160 plate appearances and an .800 OPS, but the Mariners don't even have anyone with 110 plate appearance and a .760 OPS. Which is preposterous. There are 134 players hitting at least that well, including two from the A's, but none from Seattle.
At least some guys have been hitting lately, though.
Mike Ford has been a most unexpected breakout star with eight home runs dating back to June 9. J.P. Crawford has heated up in a big way, batting .294 since June 10. Eugenio Suárez isn't far behind him, nor is Teoscar Hernández, who always seems to start hitting well in June. And maybe that ridiculous 41-homer round against Pete Alonso in the derby will spark a second-half revival for Julio Rodríguez.
If those players continue to hit, perhaps the Mariners can leverage one of the easiest remaining schedules to chase down Toronto and/or Baltimore, both of whom have much more challenging upcoming slates.
The six remaining head-to-head games with Houston (three in mid-August, three in late-September) also loom large. The M's have gone 5-2 against the Astros thus far and might need to edge out the reigning champs for the final wild-card spot.
National League's Reasonable Long Shot: San Diego Padres
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Record: 43-47, +39 run differential, 8.5 GB in NL West, 6.0 GB for wild card
Recent Record: 18-17 since June 1; 6-2 since July 1
Remaining Schedule Rank: 14th
To Make the Playoffs: +300
At four games below .500 and six games back for a wild-card spot, the Padres are right at the outer limit of what we've seen happen in the past decade.
But it has happened.
They would need to go 44-28 the rest of the way to match the 87 wins that Philadelphia had as last year's No. 6 seed. And that 87 mark is typically good enough to be the third-best non-division winner in the National League. The lone exception in the past 15 years was in 2018 when—had there been six entrants per league—St. Louis would have been the No. 6 seed with 88 wins.
Maybe this year will be different and it'll take more than 90 wins to make the cut. But if 44-28 is the goal, it might be feasible now that Manny Machado has come alive.
Through June 4, Machado was batting .222 with five home runs in 43 games played. Since then, he's batting .313 with 10 home runs in 31 games played. In that same window, Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .326, Juan Soto had five home runs and a .414 OBP and Xander Bogaerts was at least serviceable with a .744 OPS.
It was just terribly unlucky that they went 16-16 with a plus-26 run differential, considering Cincinnati simultaneously went 24-9 with a plus-22 run differential. But maybe that luck will turn.
And maybe they'll help that luck turn by bringing in one more potent bat ahead of the trade deadline, because beyond their big four and Ha-Seong Kim, it gets ugly in a hurry.
I've been saying for a while now it'd be fantastic if they brought in Cody Bellinger, as the Padres need a better hitting center fielder, and they have a four-game series against the Dodgers the weekend after the deadline—and Bellinger lit up his former team for a 1.300 OPS in seven games played earlier this season.
Even if it's not Bellinger, as long as they add someone who can hit, those +300 postseason odds could improve drastically.
