MLB Draft 2023: Selection Order and Predictions for 1st-Round Baseball Prospects
The MLB draft carries a complexity that the other major sport drafts do not have.
Teams are allotted a designated amount of bonus money. For example, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the No. 1 overall pick, have $16,185,700 for their draft picks, per MLB.com.
The slot value for the top selection is $9.72 million, and that is where the complications lie for the Pirates and who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB draft.
LSU outfielder Dylan Crews is reportedly looking for $10 million, per ESPN.com's Kiley McDaniel.
"Whether this number has been said out loud or implied, or this is merely shorthand for "over slot," multiple teams picking at the top have said to me this week that Crews wants $10 million. I alluded to this in the previous mock draft being a logical move for Crews," McDaniel wrote.
If that is true, the Pirates may turn away from Crews to select his LSU teammate, pitcher Paul Skenes or Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford.
That could lead to Crews falling one or two spots compared to what he was initially projected, and it would give Langford and Skenes a higher probability of landing in the top two.
Selection Order
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First Round
1. Pittsburgh
2. Washington
3. Detroit
4. Texas
5. Minnesota
6. Oakland
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas City
9. Colorado
10. Miami
11. Los Angeles Angels
12. Arizona
13. Chicago Cubs
14. Boston
15. Chicago White Sox
16. San Francisco
17. Baltimore
18. Milwaukee
19. Tampa Bay
20. Toronto
21. St. Louis
22. Seattle
23. Cleveland
24. Atlanta
25. San Diego
26. New York Yankees
27. Philadelphia
28. Houston
Full draft order can be found here.
Dylan Crews Drops to No. 3
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Crews' rumored contract demands could force the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals to pass on him.
The Athletic's Keith Law projected Crews would go at No. 3 to the Detroit Tigers in his latest mock draft, while McDaniel mocked the LSU outfielder at No. 2.
The projections have turned against Crews at No. 1. That could still happen, but there appears to be a greater chance of him dropping to the Tigers.
Detroit is essentially in wait-and-see mode. Its strategy could be as simple as taking the last of the top-three prospects available.
The Tigers could afford Crews' large demands and spend less money on their next few picks. They have $15.7 million in pool money to work with, which is the second-highest total begind Pittsburgh.
Detroit can balance out its draft spending by landing cheaper prospects at Nos. 37 and 45.
The potential selection of Crews could give the Tigers a pair of top-three draft picks in their order in short time. 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson is already a fixture at the top of their order.
Position Players Dominate Top 10
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The upper echelon of draft prospects is dominated by position players.
Crews and Langford are near locks to land in the top three, and they should be followed off the board by a combination of the top high-school and collegiate bats.
Skenes and Wake Forest's Rhett Lowder are the only top 10 pitchers in the mock drafts from McDaniel and Law.
Lowder's position in the top 10 could be dependent on how much teams value the available hitters.
Indiana high-school prospect Max Clark and North Carolina native Walker Jenkins are expected to be the first two prep prospects off the board.
Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez, Virginia catcher Kyle Teel, TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor and Vanderbilt outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. could all be top 10 selections as well.
A run on pitchers will happen at some point of the first round, but bats will be the priority in the top 10 picks, and it would be stunning to see more than three hurlers go in that range.
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