Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown
To no one's surprise, Canelo Alvarez is fighting again in September.
It'll be the 11th time in his career that he's performed during the month in which Mexico celebrates its Independence Day and the fifth time since 2013—when, at age 23, he met Floyd Mayweather Jr. in his first significant pay-per-view event as a professional.
And to no one's surprise, he'll enter the ring in Las Vegas on Sept. 30 with designs on defending the quartet of championship belts he's earned at 168 pounds since the current strap-copping run began with a defeat of Callum Smith in 2020.
But the opponent this time around? Yes, that's a bit of a shock.
Rather than a past rival or an emerging contender in his weight class, Alvarez will instead reach more than a dozen pounds down the ladder to face Jermell Charlo, who reigns alongside him as one of the sport's few undisputed champions at 154.
According to ESPN, Alvarez was prepared to fight Charlo's twin brother Jermall, who's a champion at 160 pounds, but shifted his focus to the other sibling upon being informed that the chosen Charlo would not be available to fight in September.
It'll be the first meeting of four-belt champions in the recent quad-belt era and it predictably set the B/R combat team off into discussions about what it'll look like in the ring come September and where each participant's competitive strengths might be found.
The result is an early head-to-toe breakdown of the fight and we invite you to take a look at what we came up with and drop a thought or two of your own in the comments section.
What You Need to Know
1 of 7![Mexican boxer Saul Alvarez arrives for the weigh in on September 16, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada, one day ahead of his super-middleweight title bout against Kazakh boxer Gennady Golovkin. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by Frederic J. Brown has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [Mexican boxer Saul Alvarez ] instead of [Kazakh boxer Gennady Golovkin ]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)](https://legacymedia.sportsplatform.io/image/upload/x_618,y_233,w_1176,h_781,c_crop/v1688309741/otvwpyllg8xcnxkztp4g.jpg?w=684 "Mexican boxer Saul Alvarez arrives for the weigh in on September 16, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada, one day ahead of his super-middleweight title bout against Kazakh boxer Gennady Golovkin. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by Frederic J. Brown has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [Mexican boxer Saul Alvarez ] instead of [Kazakh boxer Gennady Golovkin ]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)")
What: Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
When: September 30
TV: Showtime PPV
What's at Stake: Canelo Alvarez may not be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the game—for the record, The Ring lists him fifth—but he's certainly at the top of the heap when you combine in-ring quality with mainstream recognition and pay-per-view street cred.
He's been a September staple for the highest-profile portions of his career, having faced the likes of Mayweather and Gennadiy Golovkin in events linked to Mexican Independence Day.
So whenever he gets in the ring, regardless of the belts at stake, it's a big deal.
Facing a comparatively unknown and little-tested opponent in the 154-pound Charlo isn't exactly on the level of a Mayweather or Golovkin, but given the Texas-based twin's record (35-1, 19 KOs) and accomplishments (7-1-1 in title fights, with rematch wins to avenge both blemishes), it is something that'll draw requisite mainstream eyeballs toward the desert.
In fact, not everyone is convinced that the perceived underdog has no chance.
"Charlo is gonna beat him," Kermit Cintron, ex-champion at welterweight and beaten foe of Alvarez's in 2011, told Bleacher Report. "Jermell is way too athletic for Canelo. He's fast, good footwork, nice jab, which I think is key, can punch, throws combinations, give angles and can box, And he's big. And he has a good chin."
Canelo Alvarez's Tale of the Tape
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Nickname: Canelo
Record: 59-2-2, 39 KOs
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 166.75 pounds*
Reach: 70.5"
Age: 32 (33 on fight night)
Stance: Orthodox
Rounds: 472
All stats courtesy of BoxRec.
*Official weight at last fight in May 2023.
Jermell Charlo's Tale of the Tape
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Nickname: Iron Man
Record: 35-1-1, 19 KOs
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 152.75 pounds*
Reach: 73"
Age: 33
Stance: Orthodox
Rounds: 256
All stats courtesy of BoxRec.
*Official weight at last fight in May 2022.
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Boxing Ability
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For those who've not seen him, Charlo is no slouch when it comes to boxing skill.
He'll be taller and longer than the 168-pound Alvarez on fight night and he's found success in past fights by using those physical advantages against smaller foes in the 154-pound ranks.
His style is less aggressive than his older (by one minute) twin brother, in that he slips punches, dodges punches and employs footwork to set up his offense. And while you'd think a fighter with his dimensions might be a jab-first type, he more often relies on his feet to make opponents miss and leave them in position to be hit with counter shots.
As for Alvarez, the 18-year pro has been successful in a variety of ways through his 59 wins.
He's able to move forward and stalk some opponents while being patient and using his own powerful counter punches has been the path to victory against other foes.
The wild card here is Charlo.
Fleet-footed, defensively conscious styles have given Alvarez trouble in the past when employed by the likes of Mayweather and Erislandy Lara, both when he was fighting at 154.
If the burden of fighting up two classes at 168 compromises Charlo's ability to move, he'll be in trouble. But if not having to cut weight to reach the junior middleweight/super welterweight limit allows him to retain strength and fluidity, there's reason for hope.
Advantage: At 168, it's got to be Alvarez's until proven otherwise
Punching Power
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Unlike fighters who run up big KO percentages early in their careers but go to the scorecards more often once they face better opposition, Charlo has been on a recent power trip.
He's got 19 KOs in 35 victories since turning pro in 2007, but has scored eight of them across his last nine victories, including six in championship-level fights.
Still, rather than reply on one-shot power to finish foes, he's usually getting them at the midpoint of fights or beyond after laying a solid competitive foundation. In fact, a one-shot erasure of Erickson Lubin in 2017 and a third-round blitz of Jorge Cota two years later are the only finishes he's scored before the sixth round since 2012.
Alvarez has 39 KOs in 59 wins including nine in 17 wins since the challenge of Mayweather in 2013 that established him as a full-time elite. And they've come in a variety of ways.
He scored spectacular highlight-reel destructions of James Kirkland, Amir Khan and Sergey Kovalev with concussive single shots, finished Liam Smith with a body shot, and bludgeoned Caleb Plant into surrender with a methodical but comprehensive violence.
Charlo has never been stopped and only occasionally been damaged, but he's also never taken punches from nor delivered punches to an opponent weighing as much as 155 pounds. Alvarez will certainly test his mettle with body work and perhaps his emotions, too, if he doesn't seem concerned upon taking Charlo's best punch.
Advantage: Alvarez, by a lot
Defensive Ability
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Charlo's defensive prowess walks hand in hand with what makes him an effective boxing stylist, namely the footwork and upper body movement that allow him to avoid dangerous situations and deliver appropriate counter offense.
His fight IQ is quite high and he seems to have a good sense of where he is in the ring at all times, which helps dictate his approach to certain situations.
Charlo's lone loss came on a questionable decision against Tony Harrison in 2018, but scorecards notwithstanding he did have some trouble with Harrison across that fight and a rematch the following year because of his foe's superior height and reach.
A better model for the fight with the smaller, stronger Alvarez might be Charlo's two-fight series with Brian Castano, whom he fought to a draw in 2021 before stopping in a rematch a year later. Castano, at 5'7.5", was effective with relentless pressure coupled with upper-body movement and glove work that led to Charlo's shots being missed or deflected.
Alvarez figures to employ the same style at 168, where he's never lost and rarely been seriously threatened. As for his own defensive style, he has a unique ability to slip punches via bobbing and head rolling, which he usually follows with counter shots.
He rarely takes a solid shot or a volley of them from an opponent and has a strong chin that's allowed him to withstand punches across five weight classes with zero knockdowns.
Charlo is very skilled. But if he can't elude damage against Alvarez or can't dissuade him from advancing with his own offense, he has no chance.
Advantage: Alvarez again, because 168 breaks the tie
X-Factors
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Alvarez's X-Factor: How Much There is Still There?
It's easy to simply nod and smile and suggest Alvarez wins in a walkover because he's fighting a career 154-pounder. And it might turn out to be a perfect diagnosis.
But what if Alvarez's recent decline—often dismissed as the product of fighting a bigger man in Dmitry Bivol and returning against an uninspiring foe in John Ryder—is a real thing?
The reality is that Bivol probably won nine of 12 rounds. Then Golovkin withstood an early barrage and pushed through for 36 minutes. And Ryder got off the floor to last the distance in a fight most expected wouldn't go past the halfway mark.
If Alvarez is back to or near peak form after the injury, surgery and layoff, he'll probably wind up just fine against Charlo. But if the nicks in the paint job are indicative of age and decline and not simply cosmetic, then there's a chance he's walking toward an unwelcome surprise.
Charlo's X-Factor: Can He Fight at 168?
His brother Jermall is a middleweight and he'd have faced the same questions if he'd landed the Alvarez fight. Namely, how will he handle fighting a man who's been pristinely successful fighting in a heavier class against bigger men?
It's an even bigger ask for Jermell, who's never weighed in beyond 155.5 pounds for a fight, never fought someone that heavy, and certainly never met anyone who combines a heavier weight with the skill level of Alvarez.
As mentioned earlier, Charlo is taller and longer than Alvarez. So if he's able to put those dimensions to use without withering under his foe's offense, he may be in line to pull off a significant upset. Bivol, incidentally, is the same height as Charlo and actually has a one-inch disadvantage in reach when measured against him.
What happens the first time Charlo gets hit will tell a lot about how the fight will end.
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