7 Predictions for the Rest of the 2023 MLB Season
Nearly halfway through the MLB regular season, there is a decent sense for teams and players who are either rising or falling.
The trickier part at this point in the season is predicting how it all plays out, given we have still yet to reach the trade deadline or All-Star break.
That's what we will try to accomplish here.
Let's go through seven predictions for the rest of the season, focusing on some key players and teams in pursuit of MLB history.
Luis Arráez Hits .400, Wins Second Straight Batting Title
1 of 7
It's been nearly 30 years since anyone came close to hitting .400 in a season. Ask those who were around at the time, and it's widely believed Tony Gwynn would have done so had the 1994 season not ended early because of a strike. He finished with a .394 batting average.
Yet here is Luis Arráez, the reigning AL batting champion chasing the opportunity to win another—this time in the NL—and become the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941.
Arráez enters Thursday's game against the Boston Red Sox hitting .396.
What's just as impressive is how rarely Arráez strikes out: the fewest of any qualified hitter in the major leagues with 16. His slash line over the past 29 games is .440/.488/.543.
History may not be on his side, but what Arráez is doing at the plate is believable and convincing.
Teams with 4 Highest Payrolls Miss Playoffs
2 of 7
There was some temptation to include the Dodgers here—they have the fifth-highest payroll in MLB—but they look like a playoff team. They hit as well as anyone: top five in runs scored, second in home runs and sixth in OPS.
So that leaves the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.
Barring a run we have no reason to anticipate, it's already time to bury the Mets and Padres.
Steve Cohen felt the need to hold a press conference to discuss the disappointing Mets, and isn't ruling out trading away players at the deadline if the team doesn't improve quickly. The fourth-place Mets are currently 36-44 and an eye-popping 17 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. They also have the third-hardest remaining schedule.
The Padres are a top-heavy lineup that is hitting just .232 as a team while hovering around the Mendoza line with runners in scoring position. As opposed to adding at the deadline, they may need to trade free-agent-to-be Blake Snell to secure more depth for the roster in the years to come.
Of the bunch, only the Yankees would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, with the Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros closely on their heels for the AL's second wild-card spot.
The Blue Jays are going to challenge the Yankees as the AL East's third-best team behind the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. The fourth-best will be on the outside looking in. With Aaron Judge out for the foreseeable future, there is a massive hole in the lineup that has left the Yankees offense looking rather pedestrian.
The Phillies may be just two games out of a wild card spot, but the struggles of Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber persist while Brandon Marsh has cooled off from his hot start. Six games on the road against the Tampa Ray Rays and Miami Marlins heading into the All-Star break will tell us a lot about where this team is heading as the trade deadline looms.
San Francisco Giants Win NL West
3 of 7
After a buzz-killing offseason, the Giants appear to have landed on their feet. Who needs Aaron Judge when you have Michael Conforto? Who needs Carlos Correa if you have Casey Schmitt?
OK, we were not talking like that before the season. We still are not, honestly. But this Giants squad has pulled together. It entered Thursday holding the second wild-card spot and was only 2.5 games behind the rising Arizona Diamondbacks.
Over the last two weeks, San Francisco went 8-2 against the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks.
Notable about the Giants is their 23-16 record against teams above .500, tying with Atlanta for the best in MLB.
The Giants are in a tough division but in striking distance, and they play well against good teams. The Diamondbacks pitching is surely going to falter to a degree in the second half and the Dodgers have enough holes to wonder if they are more than just a wild card team.
AL Central Winner Becomes First with Losing Record in 162-Game Season
4 of 7
The only teams with losing records to reach the postseason did so during abbreviated regular seasons.
The 1981 Kansas City Royals are one example. The season was interrupted by a strike. That year, to make the playoffs, a team either had to be a first-half division champion or a second-half division champion. Despite having a 50-53 combined record, the Royals made the playoffs by being the second-half AL West champions at 30-23.
There were also the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers, who were wild-card teams with losing records in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season that had eight teams from each league make it.
This year's AL Central is pedestrian enough to break the mold.
The Cleveland Guardians at 39-40 are 0.5 games up on the Minnesota Twins for the division lead, both with losing records. Both would have the worst record in the AL East, where every team is .500 or above with a positive run differential.
Conversely, only the Twins have a positive run differential in the AL Central. None of them have a positive record against teams above .500.
The Twins and Guardians are still projected to win around 84 games, but it should surprise no one if they fail to get there as the first year of the balanced schedule exposes the weakest link of the six divisions.
Shohei Ohtani Posts Highest OPS, Lowest Opponent Batting Average
5 of 7
This felt like an easy one because Ohtani is already doing it, and recency bias is even more convincing that he's capable. After hitting two home runs and striking out 10 batters on Tuesday, Ohtani boasts the most home runs, highest OPS and lowest opponent batting average.
It's been said about Ohtani for the past few years, but we really have never seen anything like this. And we could not possibly predict when, or if, we may ever see it again in our lifetime.
These are the kind of numbers that build the definitive case for Ohtani as the best player in baseball, which perhaps few would argue against anyway.
It's reaching the point where MVP conversations are beneath him, since he's so obviously the most valuable player.
Imagine giving the award to anyone else if Ohtani actually has the highest OPS and lowest opponent batting average, a clear mismatch whether on the mound or at the plate.
Angels Make First Postseason in Ohtani Era
6 of 7
The argument against the Angels in this Ohtani era has never been about talent. They already had the game's previous best baseball player in Mike Trout.
It was more about the Angels putting it all together, staying healthy, strengthening their pitching staff and learning how to win. To their credit, the Angels have done exactly that.
It does help to have one player who is arguably the game's best hitter and pitcher.
The Angels have not made the postseason since Ohtani arrived in 2018. They've only been once since Trout entered the big leagues in 2011, as they were swept by the Royals in 2014.
Will they finally win a playoff game? We'll have to see. But the Angels have the third-best run differential in the AL and the highest among the wild-card contenders.
Defending World Series Champion Houston Astros Miss Playoffs
7 of 7
It sounds strange because aside from losing last year's AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, this team is not demonstrably different from the one that just won the World Series.
But you have to peel back a layer. Three of their projected five starters going into 2023 have missed most or all of the season.
Lance McCullers Jr. went down early in spring training and eventually had forearm surgery, shutting him down for the year. They lost José Urquidy and Luis Garcia on consecutive days, the former still out with right shoulder discomfort and latter out for the season after Tommy John surgery.
Jose Altuve missed the first couple of months of the season with a broken hand suffered in the World Baseball Classic and has experienced minor injuries since his return.
Yordan Alvarez, whom the Astros rely on tremendously for offensive production, has been sidelined since early June with an oblique strain and is not expected to return until after the All-Star break.
While still talented, it's a banged-up team playing like a shell of itself and currently 0.5 games out of the final AL wild-card spot.
Stats and records up to date entering Wednesday's games unless otherwise noted.
