BS Meter For Latest Damian Lillard Buzz and Other Major NBA Rumors
The week leading up to NBA free agency is peak leak season. Smoke screens blot out the sun as agents and teams duel for negotiating leverage and control of the narrative.
It's a tense time, and we need to be extra careful when parsing reports about signings and trades, let alone comments from the involved parties themselves.
Lose your sense of skepticism, and you might find yourself believing the Golden State Warriors intend to keep Jordan Poole for four years when their actual plan is to trade him within four days.
NBA reporting is a hard job, and we're not impugning the integrity of the messengers here. But we can't just accept the messages themselves as gospel—not with disinformation all over the place.
Here, we're passing judgment on the validity of the latest news as the NBA's busiest transactional period approaches.
Damian Lillard and the Blazers Are Sticking Together
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Portland Trail Blazers general manager Joe Cronin put out a statement after meeting on Monday with Damian Lillard and his agent to discuss the team's direction. It triggered a combination of fatigue and deja vu.
Cronin's words and Portland's actions diverge to a ridiculous degree. The Blazers didn't trade the No. 3 pick for a star, held onto Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe through draft night and lack the flexibility to add a meaningful free agent. Every move Portland has made this offseason suggests it isn't looking to mortgage the future for the sake of giving Lillard a contending roster.
That's the correct move, by the way. The Blazers finished 13th in the West last year, despite a career season by Lillard. They're nowhere close to being one or two players away from vaulting into the conference's top tier. The writing has been on the wall in Portland for a while now, but nobody seems willing to act on the message.
Maybe the Blazers are just waiting for Dame to request a trade, so they don't have to be the ones pulling the ripcord.
This is a small-market franchise that doesn't attract free agents, so it's holding onto its young draft picks and homegrown talent. Knowing there's no scenario where Lillard and the current cast compete for a title, the Blazers seem to have already made up their minds on what the future will hold.
They're just not coming out and saying it yet.
BS Meter: Any suggestion that Lillard or the Blazers aren't sure which way this thing is headed produces off-the-charts levels of BS. Keep the youth; send Lillard to the Miami Heat for three firsts, Tyler Herro and salary filler and be done with it.
Suns Moving Forward with Deandre Ayton?
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The Phoenix Suns must feel pretty good about Cam Payne, Jordan Goodwin, Ish Wainright and Isaiah Todd. Those are the team's only four non-star players currently under contract for next season, and if a Deandre Ayton trade isn't in the cards, the Suns will have to count on landing multiple rotation pieces at minimum salaries.
Otherwise, the depth issues that scuttled Phoenix's postseason will only intensify.
B/R's Chris Haynes reports league sources still see Ayton staying with the Suns as the likely outcome, as Phoenix is keeping Ayton because it believes his "value to the franchise is at an all-time high"
That second part is the toughest sell of all. Ayton is coming off a 2022-23 season marked by the lowest Estimated Plus/Minus of his career, and he's had two straight playoff trips sullied by conspicuous benchings. Maybe a fresh start under Frank Vogel will rejuvenate Ayton, but even a bounce-back season from the five-year vet wouldn't address the Suns' thin roster.
Trading Ayton is the only way for Phoenix to reel in two or three players to fill out its rotation, and that's before even getting to how ill-advised it is, generally speaking, to spend $32.5 million on a non-star player at the league's most fungible position. Marc Stein reported a deal was nearly in place to send Ayton to the Dallas Mavericks for three rotation pieces, so this saga is clearly far from over.
That said, we know how it's going to end: with Ayton in another jersey.
BS Meter: Copious amounts. The only justification for not trading Ayton is that his value is actually at its nadir—not its "all-time high." This feels like a deliberate misdirect by the Suns, probably in hopes of convincing teams they're not desperate to move the former No. 1 pick. Nobody's falling for this.
Daryl Morey Making Ridiculous Demands?
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We're all familiar with the predatory fantasy owner who throws out absurd, lopsided trade offers "just to start a conversation."
Apparently, Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball ops Daryl Morey is playing that role in real life when it comes to Tobias Harris discussions.
According to Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer: "Last week, sources told The Inquirer the Sixers are overvaluing Harris and asking for 'outrageous packages in return.' That goes in line with what a source said the Sixers told the Cavs what it would take days before the draft: A package of Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and a draft pick."
A source told Pompey that Morey "'isn't negotiating in good faith.'"
Everyone already knows Morey, a forerunner of the analytics movement and one of the most outside-the-box roster-building innovators of the last 20 years, is a relentless seeker of advantages. In the past, that search for market inefficiencies has included directing his teams to shoot more threes than anyone thought possible and spamming James Harden isolation sets with preposterous frequency.
Maybe he believes the latest edge involves making impossible trade demands, hoping the party on the other line mishears him and then shouting "no take-backs!"
BS Meter: Abundant amounts. The Pompey report feels legit, and we're not disputing that. But Morey's conduct reeks.
Rockets Spreading the Wealth?
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Forget maxing out James Harden. The Houston Rockets are now increasingly likely to spread their towering mound of cash over multiple veteran free-agent contracts instead.
Per Yahoo! Sports! Jake Fischer:
The Rockets, sources said, are considering short-term, high-salary contracts in order to land top-target free agents with their $61 million in cap space. It would take a maximum contract to ultimately lure VanVleet from Toronto, sources said, which would top out at two-years, $80 million. Dillon Brooks continues to be mentioned by league personnel as the top wing on the Rockets' radar, in addition to Brook Lopez ranking as Houston's primary big man option.
Your mileage may vary on whether the Rockets should be in the business of skipping rebuild steps at all. With a core this young, it might be wiser to let the kids find their way and earmark all that cap space for bad contracts with more picks attached. Then again, Houston doesn't control its own first-rounder in 2024, so the losses that'd accompany that strategy wouldn't necessarily help add to the talent base.
Either way, it's clear that spending over $60 million on three players is better than giving most of it to one, Harden, who makes no sense whatsoever for the franchise. A declining, ball-dominant, offense-only star whose off-court habits are exactly what you'd teach young players not to engage in doesn't fit in Houston. It's starting to seem like the Rockets understand the damage a Harden reunion could cause.
BS Meter: None detected. After a frightening dalliance (which might have been a leverage play by Harden all along), the Rockets appear to have their wits about them. Signing multiple starting vets to short, expensive deals is the right approach.
Multiple Teams In Play for Draymond Green?
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Another note from Fischer focused on Warriors free agent forward Draymond Green, who opted out of his 2023-24 salary to theoretically play the field for the first time in his career.
"The Kings and head coach Mike Brown stealing Draymond Green from the Warriors would be quite the story," Fischer wrote, "while Portland and Detroit are also expected to make plays for Green, sources said."
Sacramento's draft-night maneuvering opened up nearly $35 million in cap space. The Kings could use that cash to renegotiate and extend Domantas Sabonis, throw an offer sheet to a tantalizing restricted free agents such as Grant Williams or Cam Johnson...or they could toss most of it at Green.
Fischer goes on to say "all indications continue to point to Green returning to the franchise he's won four championships with", and that has long felt like the probable outcome. Though Green can make a difference anywhere, particularly on D, he's 33 and has played to a negative point differential when on the floor without Stephen Curry in four of the last five seasons.
He can still have a championship impact with Warriors, and they'll likely make him a multiyear offer with a salary in the $25 million range. That should be enough to keep Green from taking slightly larger payouts from other teams, even if the potential to reunite with Brown while shoring up the Kings' defense is an undeniably interesting option.
BS Meter: Minimal amounts. Green's appeal is easy to understand, but the Warriors can offer competitive pay with an unmatched level of comfort. He's not going anywhere.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
