Most Overvalued NFL Players in Fantasy Football Ahead of 2023 Training Camps

While training camp is the next landmark of the NFL's offseason calendar, us fantasy football degenerates are hard at work.

Sure, the 2023 season is still a couple of months away, but we're constantly searching the league to find value—or, in many cases, understand where it's not. The latter point is our focus today.

The prevailing trend of the following choices is simple: These are talented players, yet the context of their situation is a problem.

Although the list is subjective, key factors are a player's history, expected role and both teammate and coach considerations. Player rankings and average draft position (ADP) are from Fantasy Data.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Rob Carr/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 04: Quarterback Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Lamar Jackson is an ideal example of divergence between what happens on the field and in fantasy football.

This offseason, the Baltimore Ravens hired Todd Monken to coordinate the offense. One of the biggest adjustments, they say, is that Jackson will be running less often. Both for his health and the potential of the team's scoring attack, that would be a positive change.

Fantasy owners, however, aren't as excited.

Mobility has always propped up Jackson's value. He's certainly not about to stop using it entirely—Monken even found moments for Stetson Bennett at Georgia, after all—but the 26-year-old's upside hinges on his mobility.

Add in the lingering red flag of five missed games in two straight years, and QB5 is a concerning number.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/John Bazemore

Atlanta Falcons rookie running back Bijan Robinson (7) is shown during the team's NFL rookie minicamp football practice Friday, May 12, 2023, in Flowery Branch, Ga. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Strictly on talent, Bijan Robinson is properly valued. He's a dynamic back who seems likely to immediately impress.

What we should expect from the Atlanta Falcons is unclear, though.

Yes, they selected the 21-year-old eighth overall in the draft and wouldn't have used a premium pick on him only to have him legitimately split snaps.

Conversely, they're not actually going to stick Tyler Allgeier—who surpassed 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie—into a deep reserve slot, right? Cordarelle Patterson fits in somewhere, too.

Robinson is an exciting addition to the offense, but his current RB4 status is curiously high for Atlanta's situation.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Free Agent

Quinn Harris/Getty Images

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JANUARY 08: Running back Dalvin Cook #4 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball during the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on January 08, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

The unknown is an appeal, no?

Since he's a free agent, Dalvin Cook might find an offense that still showcases him as the featured runner. Given that the former Minnesota Vikings back has four straight years of 1,100-plus yards, it's not a surprise he sits at RB17 with an overall ADP of 44.

However, those numbers feel awfully high for a player who's unlikely to realize that best-case scenario. Barring an injury to a current top runner, no title contender has a need of that level.

Take, for example, the rumored interest of the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets. Miami is destined for a reasonably deep rotation at the position, while the latter two teams have Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall, respectively.

Cook is a quality player, but he's not a top-20 option right now.

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Chris Unger/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 07: Davante Adams #17 of the Las Vegas Raiders warms up prior to a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium on January 07, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

This discussion is mostly a matter of whether you trust Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

So, well, you know my answer.

Davante Adams, individually, is an unquestioned superstar. He's earned first-team AP All-Pro recognition in three straight years, amassing at least 100 catches, 1,374 yards and 11 touchdowns each season.

But in 2023, the Raiders are shifting to Garoppolo, who traditionally doesn't throw many downfield passes. He's a generally risk-averse quarterback and presumably won't allow the Fresno State product to showcase his ball-winning skills as much as Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr did.

While he's a top-five receiver in reality, WR8 is too high for Adams within the fantasy football world.

Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 14: Tight end Darren Waller #12 of the New York Giants runs a drill during the teams mini camp at Quest Training Center on June 14, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Optimism around Darren Waller is understandable, considering how desperately the New York Giants needed to bolster the pass-catching group this offseason. He twice cracked 1,000 yards with the Raiders.

As a result, the 30-year-old has soared to TE7 prior to his debut campaign in New York. The problem, to be blunt, is his quarterback.

Daniel Jones had a breakout season of sorts in 2022, helping the Giants make a surprise run to the playoffs. But that perception is mostly a product of New York unleashing his mobility; he only improved his yards per pass attempt from 6.7 yards in 2021 to 6.8.

Waller should not be a trendy add, simply because he's part of an offense that won't prioritize throwing the ball.