The Dream Field For 2023 MLB Home Run Derby
On Monday, July 10, eight of Major League Baseball's best sluggers will join forces to put on an annual fireworks display better known as the Home Run Derby.
Per Sports Media Watch, last year's Home Run Derby drew better ratings than both the NFL's Pro Bowl and the NBA's All-Star Game. In fact, the 2022 Home Run Derby got more TV viewers than one of the games of the 2021 World Series.
It always draws a big crowd.
But wouldn't it be something if the participants in the Home Run Derby were actually the eight players we most wanted to see?
A made-for-TV event with made-for-TV matchups like Shohei Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge?
With Juan Soto coming back to defend his crown, while Pete Alonso tries to put a third H.R.D. trophy on his mantle?
Now we're cooking with gas.
We don't actually expect all eight players in our dream Home Run Derby field to take part in this year's exhibition, but here's how we would rank our choices, based on a combination of derby history, star power and exit velocity.
Players are listed beginning with the most must-have.
No. 1: Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
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2023 Home Run Count: 12
Julio Rodríguez is nowhere close to the league lead in home runs hit this season, but this one is as non-negotiable as it gets.
(As such, we couldn't have asked for a better player to be the first one to commit to joining this year's derby field.)
Last year's Home Run Derby is where Rodríguez became a household name, absolutely obliterating baseballs in the process of hitting eight more first-round home runs and eight more second-round home runs than any other player.
Rodríguez didn't win the derby, coming up just short against Juan Soto in the finals. But, I mean, come on, he won the derby. He was making the league minimum salary of $700,000 at the time of the derby, but he signed a 12-year deal with a minimum value of more than $209 million less than six weeks after that exhibition.
In contrast, Pete Alonso—who Rodríguez smoked in the second round of last year's derby—won both the 2019 and 2021 derbies and still hasn't gotten a long-term deal.
But the real reason this is non-negotiable is that this year's All-Star Game is taking place in Seattle. And while the Dodgers did not have a representative in last year's derby, the host team typically does.
If, however, Rodríguez for any reason does not to participate in this year's derby—even though his pre-ASB slugging percentage of .477 exploded into a post-ASB slugging percentage of .576 last season—I'm going to go out on a limb and presume we would all gleefully accept a cameo appearance by Ken Griffey Jr.
He might go out there at 53 years old and fail to hit a single home run, but could you even imagine the eruption at T-Mobile Park if Junior was a surprise, "last-minute replacement" for Rodríguez?
No. 2: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
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2023 Home Run Count: 25
If Julio Rodríguez is a 10 out of 10 on the non-negotiable scale, Shohei Ohtani is a solid 9.8.
Not only is Ohtani the undisputed face of baseball—we don't even need an "international" qualifier on there anymore—but he is leading the majors in home runs after a recent flourish of eight in 10 games. (Just a 162-game pace of 130 homers. No big deal.)
And the home runs that he has been hitting as of late are just absurd.
A 459-foot blast to left of center on June 12?
A 453-foot no-doubter to left-center two days later?
And a 443-foot blast to slightly opposite field one day after that?
This stuff shouldn't even be possible in a Home Run Derby setting, let alone three times in four days' worth of actual games.
But, as we all know, Ohtani is some kind of special.
Ohtani participated in the 2021 Home Run Derby, eliminated in the first round by Juan Soto in an incredible battle that went to a second tiebreaker. He abstained from last year's derby, but maybe we can twist his arm into gracing us with his mashing presence in advance of what will be the most outrageous free agency bidding war we've ever witnessed in Major League Baseball.
If Ohtani opts out of the derby, though, maybe he can pitch to Mike Trout. That might be even more awesome.
No. 3: Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
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2023 Home Run Count: 14
There's no rule stipulating that the reigning champion must participate in the Home Run Derby. Aaron Judge won in 2017 and hasn't participated since. Same goes for 2018 derby champion Bryce Harper.
But if we're building the dream derby roster, we would like the reigning champion, please and thank you.
Even though he was the No. 4 seed last year, Juan Soto had the good fortune of batting second in every round, going through No. 5 José Ramírez, No. 8 Albert Pujols and No. 6 Julio Rodríguez. By no means are we implying he was lucky to hit 53 home runs in a short period of time, but he did hit the second-fewest home runs in both the first round and second round, knowing before he stepped into the box in each round how many home runs it would take to advance.
For all we care, though, he can have that advantage again. Promise Soto the No. 1 seed if he agrees to run it back, because it's great theatre to have a guy trying to defend his crown.
Soto is also a very intriguing talking point for the second consecutive year.
During last year's derby, there was all the banter about his turning down Washington's 15-year, $440 million contract offer and the impending inevitability of a trade.
Well, he did get traded, and San Diego has yet to sign him to a long-term deal. So, not only can we spend the derby talking about the massive contract coming his way at some point in the next 18 months, but there is some bubbling trade potential once again with the Padres nestled a several games below .500 and (among others) the Yankees in rather dire need of an outfielder.
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No. 4: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
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2023 Home Run Count: 23
For a little while there, we were concerned about whether Pete Alonso would even be healthy enough to participate in what would be his fourth consecutive Home Run Derby.
Alonso took a Charlie Morton fastball off the wrist on June 7 and was expected to miss up to a month of action. But the NL's home run leader spent the bare minimum of 10 days on the IL before returning to the lineup on June 18, just in time to keep Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber or Matt Olson from taking the NL mantle from him.
Some players worry about the Home Run Derby screwing up their swings for the second half of the season, but not Alonso. The seasoned veteran of derbies has a career OPS of .884 in the first half and .891 in the second half.
If anything, the 174 taters he has mashed in his three-derby career have only made him stronger, slugging better in the second halves of both the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Such is life for a professional home-run hitter.
Since his MLB debut in 2019, Alonso has hit more home runs (169) than any other player, with Aaron Judge (156) the only player even remotely within striking distance, needing to set an AL record of 62 home runs in 2022 just to get within roughly 10 percent of the Polar Bear's dominance.
Frankly, it would be awesome if this is just something that Alonso does every damn year of his career, like a Harlem Globetrotter of moonshots.
No. 5: Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
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2023 Home Run Count: 16
While Ronald Acuña Jr. isn't leading the majors in home runs, he almost has to be leading the majors in distance traveled per home run.
All but two of Acuña's dingers has gone at least 400 feet, with many eclipsing that mark by a ton.
And if you watch the replays of his homers—all of which you can find here—what stands out more than anything is how often and how quickly the nearest outfielder realizes there is no point in even jogging to the wall, because that thing is gone, usually in a heartbeat.
On May 1, all of Twitter went wild over Acuña hitting a triple-decker at Citi Field.
That ball allegedly only traveled 448 feet, though, good for just his seventh-longest blast of the season.
If he does participate, this would be the third Home Run Derby of Acuña's career. He was ousted by Pete Alonso in the second round in 2019, and again bested by Alonso in the first round last year.
Here's the thing, though: 2019 and 2022 were the two worst slugging seasons of this phenom's career. He finished last year at a meager .413 and posted a mark of .518 while hitting 41 home runs in 2018.
But this year, he's sitting at .563. So perhaps this is the year that he finally edges out the Mets slugger and wins this thing.
No. 6: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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2023 Home Run Count: 19
Between the toe injury that has had Aaron Judge on the IL since June 3 and the fact that he has not participated in a Home Run Derby since 2017, there is little chance Judge steps to the plate, but this is our "dream field," so we have to list him..
It would be amazing if Judge—who hit more home runs than any other player in each round of the 2017 Home Run Derby before going on to mash 62 home runs in 2022—shocked the world by partaking in this year's derby.
The allure goes without saying. "Judge" and "home run" were synonymous last season, and he was well on his way to leading the majors in homers again this year until a second trip to the IL set him back. (Among players with at least 150 plate appearances, Judge is still leading the majors with a ratio of one home run for every 11.2 trips to the plate.)
Judge has only hit one home run over 450 feet this season, but few players can destroy a baseball quite like this 6'7" monolith of dingers.
And while the outfield walls of T-Mobile Park are relatively uniform—331' down the left-field line and 378' to left-center compared to 327 down the right-field line and 381' to right-center—there's a real possibility that a right-handed hitter will crush a ball out of the stadium to left field.
Judge could put on an unforgettable show on par with Josh Hamilton's 2008 performance.
No. 7: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2023 Home Run Count: 16
You know what has been awesome in recent years?
Rookies in the Home Run Derby.
Aaron Judge was a rookie when he won it in 2017. Rhys Hoskins wasn't quite a rookie when he participated in 2018, but he only played in 50 MLB games prior to that season. In 2019, it was rookie vs. rookie in the championship round, with Pete Alonso topping Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And after a year without rookies in 2021, Julio Rodríguez put on one heck of a show last July.
It'd be great if Major League Baseball instituted a rule that there must be a rookie in the derby. It just makes the event more fun to have part of the "next generation" on display.
And, well, there are some great choices from this year's crop of rookies.
Rangers third baseman Josh Jung is having a fantastic season with 15 home runs. Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez is doing a solid Mike Piazza impression with his slugging. Rockies first baseman Nolan Jones has hit two of the longest home runs of the entire MLB season. And Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz absolutely destroyed baseballs at Triple-A Louisville before sending the first home run of his career 458 feet.
However, give us Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll, who seems to have already wrapped up the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Carroll isn't some destroyer of worlds. His longest home run of the season traveled 432 feet—a modest distance compared to the others on this list. But that deepest shot was lefty vs. lefty off Clayton Kershaw. And Carroll can homer to all parts of the ballpark, with the breakdown of his 16 home runs being: seven pulled, seven opposite field and two to center.
Carroll is a five-tool star who never seems to be hunting home runs. But maybe he could do so for an exhibition in Seattle.
No. 8: Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox
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2023 Home Run Count: 16
It's a tough call for the last spot in our dream field.
Jorge Soler, Matt Olson and Kyle Schwarber have each hit at least 20 home runs and would be plenty worthy participants who could win this thing.
A healthy Max Muncy or Yordan Alvarez would also be fun.
And after Albert Pujols' performance in last year's derby, maybe Nelson Cruz—who turns 43 next week—could jump-start a similar "Fountain of Youth" second half of the season by participating in the derby.
Or if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wants to reignite the flame from 2019, we certainly wouldn't complain.
But give us Jake Burger, who can annihilate a baseball as well as anyone in the majors.
He does strike out a ton, but no need to worry about identifying pitch type in a derby.
And when he does make contact, the ball goes a long way.
According to Baseball Savant, Burger entered play Tuesday in the 100th percentile in both barrel percentage and max exit velocity.
He is averaging one home run for every 12.9 trips to the plate, and is averaging one home run for every 7.75 trips to the plate that don't end in a strikeout, walk or hit by pitch.
Basically, if he hits the ball forward, there's about a 13 percent chance it's a homer.
Burger is precisely the type of slugger who could enter the Home Run Derby as a somewhat unknown underdog, only to become a household name in one night's time.
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