6 NFL Rookie Projects Expected to Develop, Contribute Right Away in 2023
NFL draft parlance often attaches a negative connotation to the use of the team "project," particularly when specific prospects are taken early in the process.
Projects are conveyed as physically gifted individuals who sit much further behind comparable options on the developmental curve. Yet the script can be flipped with an argument that supposed projects present far more upside to become elite performers (See: Allen, Josh).
Today's prospects come into the game more prepared than ever. Even when they're not, professional coaches are far more flexible than they've ever been, with a tendency to build systems around mega talents.
As such, it's not surprising when those viewed as less developed still create an impact upon entry into the league.
In this particular instance, six highly regarded draft picks from this year's first and second rounds have been identified to become significant contributors during their initial campaigns despite being knocked throughout the evaluation process because of some rough edges.
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
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Scouting Report: Richardson's rare bundle of traits are worth a risky bet. Players with his build, athletic profile, arm strength and advanced pocket management are hard to find. Speeding up his process a bit and ironing out his accuracy will be necessary, but Richardson is a young player with plenty of room to grow, and hopefully, the right environment can foster that growth. —Derrik Klassen
A singular statistic often served as a mic drop during the discourse around quarterback Anthony Richardson: a 53.8 completion percentage.
Is the number concerning? Sure. At the same time, it doesn't provide proper context to the potential issues found within the quarterback's game or those around him.
The 6'4", 244-pound signal-caller is a phenomenal athlete, which provides a solid floor to his game. Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen already showed he can build an offense around an athletic QB in a run-heavy scheme after Jalen Hurts' success last season in Philadelphia. Richardson can thrive in this particular area while he grows as a passer.
The 21-year-old requires development, particularly with his mechanics/footwork. Even so, he shows excellent pocket presence with eyes going to the right spots. Improved mechanics and supporting cast should help tremendously with his consistency.
Since making the underclassman this year's fourth overall pick, the Colts haven't shied away from the possibility of Richardson starting sooner rather than later. What the rookie truly lacks is experience, with only one full year as a collegiate starter. He's already improving rapidly with more reps.
"It's funny man, I remember coming off the first day, he was like, 'Man, that's fast,'" Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew told reporters. "You're like, 'Yeah, it's only going to get slower though.' It's been cool to see him—he studies hard, he picks it up, he wants to learn. So, he's been doing a great job there. He has been improving steadily and I think he will continue to."
DL Lukas Van Ness, Green Bay Packers
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Scouting Report: Lukas Van Ness might be one of the most interesting draft projections in this year's class. As a redshirt sophomore who didn't log a single start in college, it was a bit of a surprise that he didn't opt to go back to school. But he's been getting first-round love because of his physical traits. —Matt Holder
The fact that Lukas Van Ness didn't start a single game last season may be the most misleading statistic to come out of this year's draft class.
Technically, the 21-year-old didn't start because of upperclassmen ahead of him on the depth chart. However, he found himself on the field more than any other Iowa defensive lineman.
"If you would have told me, and this just gives you how much of a surprise it was to me, if you would have told me that Lukas wasn't going to be back, and I wasn't going to coach him in 2023, he probably would have started a lot more," Hawkeyes defensive line coach Kelvin Bell told reporters. "I probably would've gotten more out of him."
The 6'5", 272-pound defender actually started his career by working along the interior before finally bumping out onto the edge. As a result, his game is primarily based on power. His bull rush can be overwhelming, even against the best competition.
Yet Van Ness will need to develop his entire pass-rushing repertoire. Until then, his play-strength and versatility will allow him to have a vital role in the Packers' rotation, with Rashan Gary still recovering from a torn ACL.
OT Broderick Jones, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Scouting Report: Overall, Jones is a fluid athlete with excellent natural power and a rugged, tone-setting demeanor in the run and pass game. He needs considerable refinement in his use of hands, posture/hat placement and overall ability to stay attached to blocks, making him a potential impact player as a rookie with the physical traits to develop into a plus starter within his first contract. —Brandon Thorn
The Pittsburgh Steelers landed their franchise quarterback in last year's draft. The team's offense features strong skill-position talent in running back Najee Harris, wide receivers Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Allen Robinson II, and tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington.
The front office and head coach Mike Tomlin looked at what the organization needed next season and identified the offensive line as a problem area.
In free agency, Pittsburgh signed Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig. The Steelers then traded up to this year's 14th overall draft pick to select Broderick Jones. It's only a matter of time before the rookie displaces Dan Moore Jr. as the team's starting left tackle.
"He has all the tools," offensive line coach Pat Meyer told reporters. "The thing is he wants to be great. If he stays with that, he has that attitude to be great, when the time is ready for him, he's going to be in there."
As a first-round selection, Jones has a clear advantage over Moore, even though the latter is a two-year starter. Ironically, the incoming tackle started one full season for the Georgia Bulldogs.
Though Jones' length (34 3/5" arms), athleticism and overall movement skills portend him entering the lineup sooner rather than later.
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DL Mazi Smith, Dallas Cowboys
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Scouting Report: Mazi Smith caught everyone's attention heading into this season with his rare blend of size, strength and athleticism. He's shown flashes of some All-Pro caliber traits, but consistency has been a major issue and a large reason why he's been fairly unproductive in college. —Matt Holder
Size, strength and athleticism don't always translate to on-field production. Case in point, the Dallas Cowboys drafted Michigan's Mazi Smith with this year's 26th overall pick based primarily on his natural ability.
The 22-year-old is an exceptional athlete. Entering the 2022 campaign, The Athletic's Bruce Feldman listed him as the nation's top athletic standout. The 6'3", 323-pound nose tackle's physical traits are easily noticeable.
"It's hard this time of year," Cowboys right guard Zack Martin told reporters. "We're slowing it down a little bit this offseason. But you can tell on tape. For a big man, he bends extremely well and obviously very strong, everyone knows that. He's going to be a great addition to our team. We should have some good battles in training camp."
A lack of consistency is the biggest factor in Smith not dominating at the collegiate level.
Typically, nose tackles have a hard time making a significant impact. In Smith's case, an absence of game-changing plays had less to do with where he aligned. Instead, he tended to play high and rely primarily on his physical tools. He finished his career at Michigan with only six tackles for loss and half-a-sack.
With NFL coaching and excellent every-day competition in practice, the Cowboys should coax the most out of Smith, as he becomes the anchor of the team's defense.
WR Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
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Scouting Report: Mingo is a tantalizing Day 2 swing on potential. It's hard to find a better height/weight/speed prototype in this class than him. Mingo's ball skills and blocking could earn him early playing time, too. It's also somewhat encouraging that Mingo's issues mostly boil down to needing tweaks as a route-runner, which may be fixable with the right coach. —Derrik Klassen
The Carolina Panthers traded their best wide receiver, D.J. Moore, to the Chicago Bears as part of the deal to obtain this year's No. 1 overall pick.
The free-agent signings of Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark will help offset Moore's departure. Though the former turns 33 in August, while the latter has never played a full season at the professional level.
The second-round selection of Ole Miss' Jonathan Mingo could provide a significant boost to the Panthers' wide receiver corps. The 6'2", 220-pound receiver is physically impressive with standout athletic traits. However, he never produced more than 851 yards during any of his collegiate seasons.
The previously mentioned B/R scouting report indicated concerns over fluidity and flexibility within the rookie's route-running. Those two worries have seemingly been squashed.
"Actually talked with Thomas Brown, their offensive coordinator, before practice and he mentioned one thing that surprised him about Mingo is that he's more fluid than maybe they initially expected," ESPN's Cameron Wolfe reported. "He's not this stiff, big receiver even though he's one of the bigger impact players. And so expect Jonathan Mingo to have a big role within this team."
Mingo should develop into Bryce Young's favorite target during their first year together.
TE Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
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Scouting Report: In all, Musgrave's height, athletic tools and baseline blocking skills give him everything he needs to be a weapon. He can succeed as a field-stretching tight end who doesn't have to leave the field on run downs, which gives him access to aggressive play-action concepts to make use of his speed. He will need to add weight and muscle in order to handle himself in traffic and over the middle of the field, however. Hopefully a year or two in an NFL weight training system can do the trick and unlock his potential. —Derrik Klassen
With the first-round selection of Lukas Van Ness already included, it's clear that this year's group of Green Bay Packers prospects are packed full of potential.
The Packers chose Luke Musgrave with this year's 42nd overall selection despite the fact that the tight end never started a full season in college or provided more than 22 catches in a single campaign.
So, how is the second-round rookie going to impact the Packers' offense?
His size (6'6", 253 lbs), speed and fluidity make him a natural target in the passing game. Also, the first-year target already caught the eye of his starting quarterback.
"He's going to be a great player. He's a lot faster than I think anybody thought," Jordan Love told reporters. "He picked up the offense really fast. He's getting a lot of reps right now, which is great for him. He's making the most of it."
Obviously, a transition will occur with Aaron Rodgers gone and Love now leading the way.
Considering the organization's investments at tight end by also drafting Tucker Kraft in this year's third round, a heavier reliance on 12 personnel (two tight end sets) could help the new starter ease into his position and provide the rookies with ample time to shine.
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