Which 2023 NFL Offseason Moves Will Look the Worst In 3 Years?

Now that the dust has mainly settled on offseason movement (transactionally speaking) and we're watching actual offseason movement (physically speaking), we're taking gauge of the moves that will and will not age well from the later-winter and spring of 2023.

In this case, let's go long and cynical.

Here are five particular moves teams will regret a few years down the line.

Contractual information courtesy of Spotrac

New Orleans Saints sign QB Derek Carr to a 4-year, $150 million deal

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - MARCH 11: Quarterback Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints speaks to members of the media after signing a four-year contract with the Saints at New Orleans Saints Indoor Practice Facility on March 11, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

What makes the New Orleans Saints think Derek Carr will suddenly put them over the top? This is a team that lost 10 games last season and has been crushed by cap constraints in recent years.

They might be better than they were in 2022 now, and Carr is likely an upgrade over Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston, but the funny thing is Dalton (66.7%, 7.6 YPA, 95.2 rating) had a better year on paper in '22 than Carr did (60.8%, 7.0 YPA, 86.3 rating).

In fact, Carr's rating has dropped significantly in back-to-back seasons, and the 32-year-old has never been part of a playoff win in his NFL career. He's always had limitations in terms of his arm, and it's fair to wonder if he peaked when he was last a Pro Bowler way back in 2017.

Carr is cheap this year, but he'll carry a cap hit of $35.7 million in 2024 and $45.7 million in 2025. If in three years he still hasn't revived his career, the Saints can move on for "just" $11.4 million, but by then they'd have wasted plenty of time and money on an aging, mediocre starter.

At that point, what will a talented but far-from-young defense have left in it?

Baltimore Ravens re-sign QB Lamar Jackson to a 5-year, $260 million deal

Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MD - JANUARY 01: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) after the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens on January 1, 2023 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens made a significantly more extreme investment in a quarterback who also might have peaked several years ago.

Don't get me wrong, Lamar Jackson is a much more impactful player than Derek Carr. But we're looking at a commitment that could cripple this Baltimore team if Jackson isn't an absolute rockstar in the next half-decade, and that's not something he's been nearly enough in recent years.

He may be just 26, but Jackson in his last three seasons, Jackson has been a Pro Bowler just once and hasn't been a first- or second-team All-Pro at all. He's also got a mediocre 92.5 passer rating during that stretch, along with 29 interceptions.

And most dauntingly, he's failed to complete the last two seasons due to injury.

Anything short of Super Bowl-level success in the next few years will be reason for the Ravens to regret this gamble. And at this stage, I have little reason to expect that from Jackson and a team that will be handcuffed as a result of his contract.

Kansas City Chiefs sign OT Jawaan Taylor to a 4-year, $80 million deal

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 21: Jawaan Taylor #75 of the Jacksonville Jaguars leads the pregame huddle against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 21, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The real confusing part about this deal for the Kansas City Chiefs is that they let Orlando Brown Jr. walk, Brown signed with the Cincinnati Bengals for less money despite being a much more accomplished player with a history as Patrick Mahomes' left tackle.

Brown's deal is worth just $64 million over four years with the rival Bengals, and he's coming off a fourth consecutive Pro Bowl campaign that featured a 75.8 grade at Pro Football Focus (compared to 58.7 for Taylor, who has never been a Pro Bowler).

What's more, Taylor will have to adjust to a new position after playing mostly right tackle for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Sure, they got a bit younger with this move, but it still makes little sense overall. It's messing with something that certainly wasn't broken, and there isn't much of a chance for the team to get out of it in the next three years.

Carolina Panthers trade up to draft QB Bryce Young

Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - MAY 13: Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers works through a drill during practice at Bank of America Stadium on May 13, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

I can't. I just can't with the Carolina Panthers and their decision to send the No. 9 overall pick, a 2025 first-round pick, two second-round picks and standout wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Chicago Bears for the right to take Bryce Young first overall.

It's not that I'm convinced Young won't become a megastar in Carolina, but the reality is the odds are stacked against that happening—especially now that the franchise has handcuffed him by trading away so much draft capital in order to land him.

Only 11 of the 30 quarterbacks drafted in the top five this century have made multiple Pro Bowls. And in modern NFL history, a team has never traded into the top five and landed a quarterback who became its primary starter for more than six years.

Young could overcome questions about his size and durability to excel in the NFL, but there's a good chance even that'll happen somewhere else. The Panthers would have been better off standing pat or trading down for a quarterback, and/or phoning in 2023 for a shot at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in 2024.

Detroit Lions Use No. 12 Overall Pick on RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Michael Owens/Getty Images

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 20: Jahmyr Gibbs #26 of the Detroit Lions poses for a portrait during the NFLPA Rookie Premiere on May 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The Detroit Lions simply could have done so much more with this pick, even if they traded down again and compiled more talent to support the exciting core that nearly took the team to the playoffs in 2022.

This is a quality roster that posted a top-10 DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) rating from Football Outsiders last season. And when they were on the clock with the 12 pick in April, that roster already contained D'Andre Swift, who is just 24 years old and is coming off a season in which his 5.5 yards per attempt ranked second among backs with as many carries as he had (99).

The Lions also certainly know how devalued the running back position has become. There's a reason only 12 running backs came off the board in the first round of the previous 10 drafts. And yet Detroit took the second-best back on the board in the 12 spot! With Swift on board at the time, and with other weaknesses still present, that's ridiculous.

Yes, they flipped Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for some Day 3 draft capital, but now there's less certainty in the offensive backfield and they're stuck relying heavily on a player who will simply have a limited impact as a result of the nature of this pro football era.

In three years or less, they'll almost certainly wonder about all the better routes they could have gone with that selection.