Success from Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder Could Make NFL Teams Rethink QB Investment

What's the ultimate—arguably, the only—goal in the NFL? Why, winning the Super Bowl, of course. And the hunger to achieve that goal is a big reason why teams consistently invest massive amounts of draft capital in the quarterback position. After all, it's by far the most critical position in the sport, and quality signal-callers aren't easy to find.

But the funny thing is that rule still applies early in Round 1 of the draft. Sure, the odds of hitting the quarterback jackpot in that zone are much better than the odds in or beyond, say, Round 7. But developments frequently cause those in the football world to wonder if the difference between those extreme scenarios is enough to justify making some of the wildly expensive draft investments we see on a consistent basis.

Notable developments along those lines include sixth-round draft pick Tom Brady becoming a seven-time Super Bowl champion, or Russell Wilson and Drew Brees becoming legends outside of Round 1. And to step off the Super Bowl scale for a moment, there's the fact seven of the 11 highest-rated passers in NFL history (all of whom came into the league in or beyond 2000) were not first-round selections.

In fact, in the last 15 drafts, 46 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. You know how many of those 46 have led the team that drafted them to the Super Bowl? One. Patrick Mahomes. Maybe two if you include Carson Wentz, who was a star for the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles but was on injured reserve for that team's entire playoff run.

Still, the vast majority of NFL teams will be quarterbacked by first-rounders this year. Guys like Wilson, Day 2 selections Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo and fourth-round picks Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott continue to remind teams that they don't necessarily have to put all of their eggs in one first-round basket. But those guys have been around. The league might need a new wave of successful non-first-rounders to provide a nudge.

Enter 2023 experiments Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder. Both were middle-round selections in last year's draft, and both will likely have short leashes as their respective teams test to see if they've got diamonds from the rough before inevitably diving back into the first-round draft pool if they get snakes eyes on those particular, low-cost rolls of the dice.

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The Washington Commanders could have repositioned themselves in the first round for a quarterback or even stood pat and taken Kentucky's Will Levis, who in many eyes was worthy of a top-10 selection. Instead, they took cornerback Emmanuel Forbes 16th overall and essentially doubled down on Howell, a fifth-round pick who threw just 19 passes as a rookie in 2022.

The Atlanta Falcons could have moved up the draft board boldly in a quest to land Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson, or they could have stood pat or traded down and drafted Levis. Instead, they took running back Bijan Robinson eighth overall and essentially doubled down on Ridder, a third-round pick who threw just 115 passes as a rookie in 2022.

Maybe, just maybe, those teams looked at some of the first-round quarterback cautionary tales that at this point should be draft lore. Not only do you have a laundry list of straight-up, undisputed busts like Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield, but you also have some mind-blowing capital divestitures, such as:

• Robert Griffin III cost Washington the No. 6 overall selection as well as two more first-round picks and an additional second-round pick
• Wentz cost the Eagles the No. 8 overall selection as well additional picks in Rounds 1, 2, 3 and 4, although they also received a middle-round pick back from the Cleveland Browns (hooray?)
• Jared Goff cost the then-St. Louis Rams the No. 15 overall selection as well as the following year's first-round pick and four Day 2 picks altogether, although they also received two middle-round picks back from the Tennessee Titans (another hooray?)
• Mitchell Trubisky cost the Chicago Bears the No. 3 overall selection as well as two third-round picks and a fourth-round pick
  
• Sam Darnold cost the New York Jets the No. 6 overall selection as well as three second-round picks 
• Josh Rosen cost the Arizona Cardinals the No. 15 overall selection as well as a third-round pick and a fifth-round pick
• Trey Lance cost the San Francisco 49ers the No. 12 overall selection as well as two additional first-round picks and a third-round pick

That last one is interesting because it's still relatively fresh, and because the 49ers have seemingly already given up on Lance just two years after mortgaging their future for him. What's more, they've seemingly done so in favor of a seventh-round pick! In fact, Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant last year, but he was so impressive as a rookie in relief of Lance and Garoppolo that they've handed him the keys and trade rumors have surrounded Lance throughout the offseason.

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In fact, we're now hearing good offseason chatter about that trio of draft afterthought NFC quarterbacks.

"He's taken the bull by the horns," veteran Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin said of Howell recently, per the team's official website, "and he's really led us a lot this offseason."

Meanwhile, Sports Talk ATL has a rundown of plenty of praise heaped on Ridder, who was essentially anointed at the start of the offseason.

"I thought he made significant improvement from each start," Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said in March, per the team's official website. "We expect him to make another leap this offseason. There are always things you can work on, with lower body mechanics. He can get more comfortable – when you don't change systems that helps, too. We expect significant growth from him."

And then there's Purdy. The team has reportedly fielded calls on Lance, and in March, general manager John Lynch said this, according to ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner: "I think Brock has earned the right with the way he played that he's probably the leader in the clubhouse at that...if we were to line up, he'd probably take that first snap."

Of course, all three teams have given themselves some insurance. Atlanta brought in veteran Taylor Heinicke, the experienced Jacoby Brissett has landed in D.C., and not only does Lance remain on the San Francisco roster but the 49ers also employ that former big Jets investment, Sam Darnold.

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But with Purdy already being kinda-sorta successful within a small sample, and with all of those cautionary tales in place, you'd have think the Carolina Panthers would have known better than to sell the farm for the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft.

Instead, they ultimately surrendered the No. 9 overall selection, an additional first-round pick, two second-round picks and receiver D.J. Moore in order to land Bryce Young.

It's possible some teams will never learn. But if those who see that there are ways to build a contender without crippling future rosters happen to witness success from Purdy as well as Howell and Ridder in 2023 and beyond, there'll be a chance for more change in questionable draft mentalities.