Re-Drafting Matthew Tkachuk and the Top 10 of 2016 NHL Draft
Matthew Tkachuk has taken over the NHL this postseason in helping lead the Florida Panthers to a Stanley Cup Final appearance as the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference.
But it's not just about a couple of series in one postseason that has helped elevate him to the league's elite.
Over the past two regular seasons, the 25-year-old has topped the 100-point mark each year, is an MVP finalist this season and has been one of the most productive players in the league.
Since the start of the 2021-22 regular season, he ranks 11th in goals (82), third in assists (131) and third in total points (213). Along with the box-score numbers, he has also been one of the league's most dominant players in driving possession.
Of the 578 skaters who have played at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey the past two years, Tkachuk ranks third in total shot attempt share, second in goals scored share, fifth in expected goals share, second in scoring chance share and third in high-danger scoring chance share, per Natural Stat Trick.
Add in the fact that he is one of the NHL's most effective pests and forecheckers, and you have the total package of a player.
With that in mind, we decided to go back to the 2016 NHL draft (where Tkachuk went No. 6 overall to the Calgary Flames) and redraft the top 10 with the benefit of hindsight.
Where would Tkachuk go today knowing everything we know? And what would the rest of the top 10 look like?
Let's dig into it.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews
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Original pick: Auston Matthews
Redraft pick: Auston Matthews
As tempting as it might be to put Tkachuk in the No. 1 spot, especially given the recent playoff success (and the lack of playoff success in Toronto), Auston Matthews is still probably the pick here.
The 25-year-old has been the top goal scorer in the league since making his debut, already potting 299 goals in only 481 games. That's a 0.62 per-game average, which is a 50-goal pace per 82 games.
The only thing that has kept him from hitting the 50-goal mark more than once have been injuries and a couple of shortened seasons in 2020 and 2021.
The biggest knock on Matthews will be the lack of team success in the playoffs, but it's really hard to pin that entirely on him. He still averages 0.44 goals per game in the playoffs for his career, while he has nine goals and 20 total points in 18 playoff games over the past two years.
Matthews was drafted No. 1 overall to help transform the Maple Leafs into a contender, and he has pretty much done that while also being one of the top overall offensive players in the league and the best goal scorer in the NHL since he arrived.
2. Winnipeg Jets: Matthew Tkachuk
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Original Pick: Patrik Laine
Redraft pick: Matthew Tkachuk
Laine was not necessarily a bad pick by the Jets because he mostly did what he was advertised to do: He scored a lot of goals.
He just wasn't a franchise-changing player. The Finn was ultimately traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets for another top-three pick in 2016, Pierre-Luc Dubois.
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, Tkachuk is the clear pick here for all of the reasons mentioned earlier.
He can impact the game in almost every way, from being a top-line scorer, to an elite possession-driver, to a cage-rattling pest.
The only potential flaw here is that if Tkachuk was unwilling to sign a long-term contract extension in Calgary—a team that was very good at times with him—would he have been willing to re-sign in Winnipeg? Not only have the Jets been far more inconsistent and mediocre over the past six years, it has not really been a destination for players to stay for the long term.
Even if he didn't re-sign, Tkachuk has proved to be an elite NHL player, and even if the Jets had taken him and had to trade him, they would have still had an elite trade asset.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Adam Fox
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Original Pick: Pierre-Luc Dubois
Redraft pick: Adam Fox
Dubois was a surprise pick at the time (Jesse Puljujärvi was expected to be the pick here), but he turned out to be a very good player who brought size, solid production and a very good two-way game to the Blue Jackets' lineup.
They eventually dealt him to Winnipeg for Laine and Jack Roslovic.
In hindsight, neither Dubois or Laine would have been the pick in this spot. It would have been one of the Norris-caliber defensemen to come out of the 2016 class.
In this case, that is Fox.
The 25-year-old was originally picked in the third round in 2016 and ended up having his rights go through two different organizations (Calgary and then Carolina) before eventually becoming a free-agent signing with his preferred destination: New York.
However, this exercise is not about players getting into their preferred destination, it's about where they would get picked based on the players they have become.
Fox already has one Norris Trophy on his resume and another top-five finish to his name.
He is one of the elite players in the league at his position and can dominate a game in all phases. He is an elite point-producer from the blue line, can quarterback a power play and is a true No. 1 defenseman.
In a perfect world, this would have given Columbus a 1-2 punch on defense of Fox and Zach Werenski to build its blue line around. A team could do a heck of a lot worse than that.
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4. Edmonton Oilers: Charlie McAvoy
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Original Pick: Jesse Puljujärvi
Redraft pick: Charlie McAvoy
Puljujärvi was supposed to be a core player in Edmonton's rebuild alongside Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but he was never able to put it all together in Edmonton.
With hindsight, McAvoy would have been everything the Oilers needed at the time and still need today. But he was drafted 14th overall by the Boston Bruins.
The one Achilles for the Oilers over the past few years has been their inability to defend and prevent goals, and the lack of a true No. 1 defenseman has been at the forefront of those struggles.
McAvoy may not have the offensive upside of some other top defenders in the NHL, but he is as good as they come defensively and you have to imagine he could find more points playing on a team with McDavid and Draisaitl at forward.
The 25-year-old has finished in the top 10 of the Norris voting three years in a row (with this year's results still pending), and he ranks 13th out of 202 defensemen (minimum 1,000 minutes played) in terms of the fewest expected goals allowed per 60 minutes since making his NHL debut.
This is the perfect combination of the best player available also being a gigantic need for the team making the pick.
Right now, the Oilers are trying to compete for a Stanley Cup with Darnell Nurse as their big-minute defenseman and it's not working out. A player like McAvoy getting those minutes would have Edmonton significantly closer to a championship.
5. Vancouver Canucks: Tage Thompson
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Original pick: Olli Juolevi
Redraft pick: Tage Thompson
A couple of years ago this would have been an unbelievable choice. It wouldn't even be something that was on the table.
But not all players develop at the same pace, and sometimes it takes some a little longer to reach their potential.
Thompson was a bit of a journeyman when it came to reaching his full potential. He was originally a late first-round pick by St. Louis, was traded to Buffalo in the Ryan O'Reilly deal, and looked like another forgettable pick who was never going to pan out. The Sabres were probably close to giving up on him.
Then he blossomed almost overnight. And you cannot ignore the star he has become, because it's a franchise-changing development for the Sabres.
The 25-year-old is listed at 6'6", 220 pounds, has sublime skill and one of the most powerful slap shots in the league. If you thought his 38-goal season in 2021-22 was a fluke, he came back during the 2022-23 season and obliterated those numbers by scoring 47 goals and 94 points in only 78 games.
Thompson is not really showing any signs of slowing down and should be one of the NHL's premier impact offensive players for the foreseeable future.
6. Calgary Flames: Jesper Bratt
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Original pick: Matthew Tkachuk
Redraft pick: Jesper Bratt
In hindsight, the Flames ended up with a steal at No. 6 overall, and they're never going to have an opportunity to pick Tkachuk in this redraft. He is long gone at this point.
Instead, the Flames get to take a different top-line scorer who has helped lead a rapid turnaround in New Jersey.
Bratt made his NHL debut at 19, and for the first four years of his career, he showed some brief flashes of being a top-line scorer. After some steady progression from one year to the next, he started to emerge as an impact player during the 2021-22 season.
The 24-year-old is not the most complete player in the NHL, but he has proved to be an outstanding point-producer and offensive playmaker. He is coming off a 32-goal effort in 2022-23 for a Devils team that reached the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs and is approaching his age-25 season, when scorers start to hit their peak level of production.
His shot volume has increased every year he has been in the league on a per-game basis. And given how strong that shot is, it's not out of the question to think he could generate enough chances to become a 40-goal scorer at some point in the not-too-distant future.
7. Arizona Coyotes: Pierre-Luc Dubois
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Original pick: Clayton Keller
Redraft pick: Pierre-Luc Dubois
This is a spot where an argument could be made for keeping the same pick.
Keller has developed into an outstanding scorer and Arizona's best player, but Dubois offers a bit more versatility and value to the lineup.
For starters, while Keller might have a little more value offensively, he does not really bring a ton to the table when the puck is not on his stick. Dubois is not only a better defensive player and possession driver, but he also has the edge of being a center over a winger.
Give Dubois a full 82-game season and he is going to give you 25 goals, 60 points and keep the play moving in the right direction.
The Coyotes desperately need a No. 1 center, so this pick would solve a huge need while also giving them a heck of a player.
Dubois is not a superstar by any means, but a center with his size, strength and production is an extremely valuable asset to build around.
8. Buffalo Sabres: Alex DeBrincat
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Original pick: Alex Nylander
Redraft pick: Alex DeBrincat
DeBrincat fell all the way to the second round in the 2016 draft for one reason only: He was deemed too small to be a top pick. That was it.
His production in the Ontario Hockey League was as good as any draft prospect that year, and nobody in the class scored goals like him.
Even in 2016, though, the NHL was a bit too scared of players who didn't check all of the boxes when it came to height and weight. DeBrincat has proved none of that matters as he has already put two 40-goal seasons on the board and scored 187 times in his first 450 games.
It has taken a few years but the Sabres have finally started to piece together a promising roster full of impact players.
DeBrincat would have been another to add to that core.
The 25-year-old might be a bit one-dimensional in the sense that a lot of his value is based on putting the puck in the net, but if you are only going to have one dimension, that's a pretty good one to have.
9. Montreal Canadiens: Patrik Laine
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Original pick: Mikhail Sergachev
Redraft pick: Patrik Laine
Montreal made a very strong pick with Sergachev in 2016 and then made the bold decision to trade him to Tampa Bay for Jonathan Drouin.
On paper, it seemed liked a pretty solid deal.
Sergachev definitely had potential at the time of the trade. But Drouin seemed like he was on the verge of blossoming into a top-line player.
For a variety of reasons, it has not worked out for him in Montreal, while Sergachev went on to become a key piece of a two-time Stanley Cup champion in Tampa Bay. Tough break for Montreal.
While it would be tempting to simply stick with Sergachev and not trade him, Laine has fallen right into their lap in the redraft. You would have to take him in that spot.
The 25-year-old Finn is another one-dimensional goal-scorer from this class, but again, he is excellent at that one dimension.
Is the No. 9 spot too low? Maybe. Injuries have limited him in recent years, and he never really become the elite goal-scorer he looked like becoming after his first two years, but he would still be a fascinating piece to add to a Montreal roster that already has Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to build around.
10. Colorado Avalanche: Clayton Keller
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Original Pick: Tyson Jost
Redraft pick: Clayton Keller
The rich simply get richer with this pick.
Jost had a lot of upside when the Avalanche picked him with the No. 10 pick in 2016, but he was eventually traded to Minnesota in 2022 for Nico Sturm. He is an NHL player, but a role player and nothing more.
Keller, meanwhile, has become a top-line scorer without much help in Arizona.
He would be a perfect fit for Colorado's up-tempo style of play and would probably be even more dangerous on an Avalanche team alongside Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and the puck-moving defensemen they have.
Keller is another player from the 2016 class who took a few years to reach his potential, but since he did, it has been dynamic, especially over the past two years.
The 2022-23 season was a true breakout year for the 24-year-old as he scored 37 goals with 86 total points in 82 games. It was even more impressive when you consider the devastating leg injury he was coming back from.
Keller has already scored 133 goals in his career without playing next to a true top-line center. Imagine what he might be able to do on a contender with top-tier playmakers who can get him the puck in good positions.
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