Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford: Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown
It's not the first time we've been here.
Lest anyone forget, the boxing world was abuzz last summer when ESPN's Mike Coppinger reported that Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr. had agreed to all material terms on a fight to unify their welterweight titles the weekend before Thanksgiving.
And then it didn't happen.
So, you'll forgive us for treading delicately in the wake of this week's news, again proffered by Coppinger, that the same two fighters have again agreed to a deal, this time on a fight that will land at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 29.
But make no mistake, if he's right this time, it's awfully good news.
"This will be a big one for fans and another massive pay-per-view event," Mark Boccardi, senior VP of programming/marketing for iNDEMAND & PPV.COM, told Bleacher Report. "There's no question this is one of the most anticipated matchups in boxing, so we know it'll be one of the biggest sporting events this year."
And it sent the B/R combat staff into immediate fight-analysis mode, the result being an early head-to-toe breakdown of the biggest fight at 147 pounds since another long-delayed showdown between elites: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao in 2015.
Take a look at what we came up with and drop a thought or two of your own (don't worry, we won't hold you to them if negotiations break down again) in the comments section.
What You Need to Know
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What: Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
When: July 29
TV: PPV.com, Others TBA
What's at Stake: There's no doubt that much of the fight narrative, if it comes off as planned, will focus on whether it could have (and should have) come years earlier.
But like Mayweather and Pacquiao before, it doesn't change the fact that it's still the world's two best welterweights—and two of the sport's best pound-for-pound fighters—getting together to settle a long-running debate about who's superior.
And that's a good thing. No matter how long it takes.
Spence is ranked first to Crawford's second on The Ring's top 10 at 147 pounds, though Crawford is a spot ahead at No. 3 to Spence's fourth on the magazine's pound-for-pound list.
They'll have shared championship space in the division for better than five years by the time fight night arrives in the summer, with Spence reigning since toppling Kell Brook in May 2017 and Crawford joining him 13 months later with a KO of Jeff Horn.
They've combined for 12 defenses (six apiece), with Crawford maintaining his hold on the WBO title while Spence added the WBC and WBA straps to the IBF belt he took from Brook.
"It is big," ex-HBO mic man Jim Lampley told Bleacher Report. "Always has been."
Who could ask for anything more?
Errol Spence Jr.'s Tale of the Tape
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Nickname: The Truth
Record: 28-0, 22 KOs
Height: 5'9½"
Weight: 146.25 pounds*
Reach: 72"
Age: 33
Stance: Southpaw
Rounds: 142
All stats courtesy of BoxRec.
*Official weight at last fight in April 2022.
Terence Crawford's Tale of the Tape
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Nickname: Bud
Record: 39-0, 30 KOs
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 146.5 pounds*
Reach: 74"
Age: 35
Stance: Southpaw
Rounds: 224
All stats courtesy of BoxRec.
*Official weight at last fight in December 2022.
Boxing Ability
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Spence isn't a pressure fighter in the mold of an Arturo Gatti or Ray Mancini, but he does employ a subtle form of aggression behind a strong southpaw jab and sound footwork.
The jabs frequently set up left-hand shots to the head and body, and he's far more adept than your typical boxer-type at working inside. The blend of aggressiveness, body punching and power yields a hybrid style that makes it difficult for opponents to prepare for.
His mastery of fundamental footwork also allows him to establish distance that methodically overwhelms less-aggressive foes or confuses those whose own path to victory is pressure.
Crawford, in many ways, isn't too dissimilar from Spence, which is why this is a fascinating matchup for many reasons beyond just the high-end rankings and title claims.
The Nebraskan is a southpaw by trade but shifts stances more nimbly than any other active welterweight. He's also a master of range, which means he needn't flit around the ring or mindlessly plow forward. Instead, he's effective at being both close enough to land shots and to draw opponents into overcommitting and then strafing them with his own offense.
He'll not overwhelm people with his punch rates, but he's also consistently active and tends to throw in bursts when decisive openings present themselves.
Advantage: Even
Punching Power
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Though they've combined to KO better than 77 percent of their opponents, it's unlikely that either Spence or Crawford would make a top-10 list of the sport's biggest power hitters.
That's because many of those finishes have come after several rounds of sustained pressure and activity rather than from single highlight-reel shots.
Four of Spence's six KOs in 12-round fights came in Round 6 or beyond, while Crawford has gone into the sixth round or beyond in 11 of 14 inside-the-distance wins in 12-rounders.
Ironically, Shawn Porter, who went the distance with Spence in 2019 and was stopped by Crawford in 2021, rates the former's power as superior because of its single-shot damage as compared to Crawford's asset coming more from whip-like speed.
"I'm not saying that Errol is slow, but his stuff is going to wear you down," he told K.O. Artist Sports. "Through the course of rounds, it's going to wear you down.
"With Terence, it kind of comes out of nowhere and it's because of the speed. The most intriguing thing about this fight is people think about the power, they think it's because they get stronger as the fight goes on."
Advantage: Even
Defensive Ability
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Neither Spence nor Crawford practices defense on the level of a Willie Pep, Pernell Whitaker, or Floyd Mayweather Jr., but it's no coincidence that both fighters are unbeaten and that it's not been often they've even been remotely in danger of losing.
They're clearly doing something right.
Spence's high-guard defense and counterpunching aren't the most celebrated parts of his game, but he does avoid damage and return fire thanks to clever footwork and/or head movement. He also limits the punishment sustained on the inside, frequently catching and countering incoming blows.
Crawford, too, is a sublime master of footwork, whether when moving in straight lines, pivoting to either side or moving laterally to get around his opponent.
Hitting him with single shots is possible, but it's not often that he's on the receiving end of prolonged volleys. And he's adept at using counter hooks from the southpaw stance with his lead hand, which is especially troubling to right-handed fighters attempting to land jabs.
Advantage: Even
X-Factors
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Spence's X-Factor: Will the Recent Inactivity Matter?
Presuming the fight actually comes off in late July, Spence will have fought three times in the preceding four years—including none in the last 15 months—thanks to myriad injuries as well as the aforementioned starts and stops associated with the Crawford showdown.
He's 33 years old. He's had eye surgery. He's been in a serious car wreck.
To be fair, sitting on the sidelines for 15 months wasn't an issue prior to a wide defeat of Danny Garcia in December 2020, and spending 16 more months away didn't cause decisive problems before a 10th-round stoppage of Yordenis Ugás in April 2022.
But Crawford isn't Garcia or Ugás.
He's likely to ask far more of Spence than either of those foes did, and whether the Texan still has the answers on the highest level is among the few mysteries about his game.
Crawford's X-Factor: Can He Be a Successful Smaller Man?
Crawford has been an elite commodity in several weight classes.
He won titles at 135 and 140 pounds before graduating to welterweight with the defeat of Horn, who'd beaten Manny Pacquiao less than a year earlier, in 2018.
And at 5'8" with a 74-inch reach, he's hardly a small fry at 147 pounds.
But Spence is taller and naturally larger, having competed at 152 pounds in the 2012 Olympics, and Porter said his single-shot power is more damaging than Crawford's.
Crawford hasn't fought anyone who blends size and skill like Spence, and it will be telling to see how he handles blows from a guy who's been rumored to rehydrate to 160 or even beyond by the time the opening bell sounds.
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