Ranking Every NFL Offense After the 2023 Draft
It is often said that the NFL is all about offense.
While defense still plays an important role, it's hard to argue with that sentiment when all four teams who made the conference championship game last season were in the top five in offensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.
Teams can load up on defense all they want, but if you don't have an elite offense in today's NFL, it's nearly impossible to get very far in the playoffs.
With that in mind, it's a good time to take stock of all the league's offensive units now that the draft is over. There are still some free agents out there who could help a unit. Ezekiel Elliott and Jarvis Landry spring to mind, but few are needle-movers.
Last year's production in categories like EPA per play, yards per play and ESPN's FPI were used as a baseline for these rankings. Then came the more subjective work of factoring in changes in personnel, coaching and projected development of players.
EPA per play rankings from RBSDM.com, all other advanced stats from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Players who remain unsigned are considered losses for their 2022 team.
32. Houston Texans
1 of 32
2022 EPA Rank: 32
2022 Scoring Rank: 30
Key Additions: G Shaq Mason, WR Robert Woods, TE Dalton Schultz, RB Devin Singletary, WR Noah Brown, C/G Michael Deiter, OT Greg Little, QB C.J. Stroud, C/G Juice Scruggs, WR Tank Dell
Key Losses: WR Brandin Cooks, TE Jordan Akins, WR Phillip Dorsett, TE O.J. Howard
C.J. Stroud might be the only quarterback prospect to ever receive a real downgrade in receivers going from college to the pros.
During his time at Ohio State, he threw to Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. The first three have already become first-round draft picks, while Harrison Jr. hasn't been eligible for the draft yet and may be the best of the four.
Now, Stroud will be throwing to 31-year-old Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz and a slew of young receivers who haven't proved themselves. Nico Collins is the most accomplished, and he had fewer than 500 yards receiving last year. John Metchie III is participating in the Texans' offseason programming. He missed his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia in July.
The Texans also drafted Houston wide receiver Tank Dell with the 69th pick.
This unit is going to have to rely a lot on running back Dameon Pierce and an offensive line that features Laremy Tunsil but has a lot of questions on the interior.
New offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is going to have to be really good and really creative to make this a functional unit. As of now, it still feels under construction.
31. Indianapolis Colts
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2022 EPA Rank: 31
2022 Scoring Rank: 31
Key Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie, QB Anthony Richardson, WR Josh Downs
Key Losses: QB Matt Ryan, OT Dennis Kelly, OT Matt Pryor, WR Parris Campbell
Colts fans should rejoice that the carousel of washed veteran quarterbacks has come to an end. The decision to draft Anthony Richardson is a commitment to reimagining the offense under new head coach Shane Steichen.
There will be some growing pains, though.
There's no denying that Richardson has immense potential. Pairing him with the offensive mind who helped maximize Jalen Hurts' skills in Philadelphia is a tantalizing move. Richardson is still a quarterback with just 13 starts at the collegiate level, a completion percentage of 54.7 percent and 24 touchdowns to 15 interceptions.
It doesn't really help that the Colts don't have a deep receiving corps. Michael Pittman Jr. is a No. 1 wide receiver, but Alec Pierce has to prove himself as a No. 2 and Isaiah McKenzie isn't the most exciting third option.
Richardson may reach Hurts-like highs under Steichen, but there's going to be a learning curve. For now, the Colts can do some interesting things in the run game. If Jonathan Taylor is healthy, it's going to be fun to see what Steichen does to get creative while Richardson develops as a passer.
There are going to be weeks it looks great and this ranking looks foolish. More often than not in Year 1, this ranking should be spot-on.
30. Tennessee Titans
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2022 EPA Rank: 26
2022 Scoring Rank: 28
Key Additions: OT Andre Dillard, OG Daniel Brunskill, WR Chris Moore, T/G Peter Skoronski, QB Will Levis, RB Tyjae Spears
Key Losses: OT Taylor Lewan, WR Robert Woods, WR Chris Conley, OG Dennis Daley, TE Austin Hooper, C Ben Jones
For years, Derrick Henry has been the engine that drives the Tennessee Titans offense. Heading into 2023, the franchise is only putting more pressure and stress on him to be phenomenal to make things work.
Ryan Tannehill has rarely been the kind of quarterback who can elevate a mediocre receiving corps. He's typically finished in the middle of the pack in most passing metrics. Last season, he finished 24th in QBR, posting his lowest figure since coming to Tennessee.
Drafting Will Levis in the second round provides a clear succession plan. The problem is that it's not exactly a situation that's good for developing a young quarterback.
Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Philips may be one of the worst starting trio of receivers in the league. They combined for just 919 yards and the offensive line figures to have several new faces. Dillon Radunz and Aaron Brewer could be the only returning players who start.
Radunz is in his second season, and Brewer is moving to center.
There are way more questions than answers with this group. Henry is going to have to be Superman to make this an offense that scares anyone.
29. Los Angeles Rams
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2022 EPA Rank: 29
2022 Scoring Rank: 27
Key Additions: TE Hunter Long, QB Brett Rypien, G Steve Avila, QB Stetson Bennett
Key Losses: G David Edwards, C Matt Skura, QB Baker Mayfield, WR Allen Robinson II, WR Brandon Powell
Years of pushing the chips all-in every offseason is catching up with the Rams. What was a Super Bowl-winning offense has pretty much been reduced to something much less fun.
Matthew Stafford took a big step backward in his age-34 season. He'll be 35 and coming off a season in which he posted a 50.3 QBR in nine games before a back injury ended his season prematurely.
That's why signing backup quarterback Brett Rypien and drafting Stetson Bennett in the fourth round are significant moves. There's a good chance one of them will be making a few appearances throughout the season.
The most notable outside acquisition the Rams made was tight end Hunter Long. He came as part of the trade package they got in return for Jalen Ramsey from the Miami Dolphins.
He will likely be the second tight end on the field with Tyler Higbee in 12 personnel.
Sean McVay is going to have to work some serious magic to make this a threatening unit. The Rams have done next to nothing to fix a unit that was bad last year other than trade for a second tight end and take a guard (Steve Avila) with a second-round pick.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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2022 EPA Rank: 20
2022 Scoring Rank: 25
Key Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, G/T Matt Feiler, RB Chase Edmonds, T/G Cody Mauch
Key Losses: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones, TE Cameron Brate, TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Breshad Perriman, G Shaq Mason, OT Donovan Smith, WR Scott Miller
If it weren't for the talented receiving trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage, it would be easy to rank this Bucs offense last.
After all, they are moving from one of the all-time great quarterbacks in Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. Brady was a seven-time Super Bowl champion, and Mayfield's biggest accomplishment over the last two seasons was a nice NVP award from Nickelodeon for lighting up the Denver Broncos on Christmas.
His final season in Cleveland was ugly, and he didn't do much to save face in 12 appearances with the Panthers and Rams last season. He'll compete with Kyle Trask for the starting job.
If new offensive coordinator Dave Canales can get Mayfield back to his 2020 form, it would help alleviate pressure on a run game that finished 32nd in yards per carry. With Leonard Fournette gone, Rachaad White should take over as the true lead back.
Even with White taking over, it's going to take a lot of development on the offensive line to be better in 2023. Shaq Mason and Donovan Smith are gone, putting pressure on young linemen like Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch to improve rapidly.
If they don't, it could be a long season.
27. Arizona Cardinals
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2022 EPA Rank: 28
2022 Scoring Rank: 21
Key Additions: OG Dennis Daley, WR Zach Pascal, OT Elijah Wilkinson, G/C Hjalte Froholdt, OT Paris Johnson Jr., WR Michael Wilson, QB Clayton Tune
Key Losses: WR Chosen Anderson, OG Cody Ford, C Billy Price, OG Justin Pugh, WR A.J. Green, OG Max Garcia
This ranking takes into consideration that quarterback Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and isn't expected to be ready for the beginning of the 2023 season, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Media.
Murray suffered the injury in Week 14 against the Patriots after throwing just one pass. From that point on, the Cardinals didn't score more than 19 points in a game and went 0-5 with Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley and David Blough taking reps at quarterback.
It was a sad vision of what the Cardinals offense is likely going to look like to start the new season. They drafted Clayton Tune in the fifth-round, and he has some interesting physical tools with a 9.81 relative athletic score, but we could be getting multiple starts from the 36-year-old McCoy.
The Cardinals made a couple moves to get their offensive line closer to average. Hjalte Froholdt started six games for the Cleveland Browns last season, Paris Johnson Jr. was the first offensive lineman taken in the draft, and Elijah Wilkinson offers more interior depth after starting nine games for the Falcons last season.
None of those moves figures to really push the needle toward this being an exciting offense. The receiving group is good when everyone is healthy. But the depth behind Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore leaves a narrow margin for injury.
26. New England Patriots
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2022 EPA Rank: 24
2022 Scoring Rank: 17
Key Additions: TE Mike Gesicki, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, OT Riley Reiff, OT Calvin Anderson, RB James Robinson
Key Losses: RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Nelson Agholor, T Isaiah Wynn
The Patriots are mostly banking on the return of Bill O'Brien to the coaching staff to turn things around offensively this year.
Sure, they made some moves. They signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki, but Smith-Schuster is comparable to Jakobi Meyers, and Mike Gesicki does a lot of the same things that Jonnu Smith did back when he was with the Titans before he came to New England.
From a personnel standpoint, there aren't many moves you can point to and say the Patriots got appreciably better. Letting Damien Harris walk and handing an even bigger role to Rhamondre Stevenson may have been their best personnel move.
To be fair, O'Brien could well have a big impact on this team. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were left with big roles in preparing and calling the offense last season and reportedly struggled.
Mac Jones felt the effect with a serious step back in his sophomore campaign. He went from 16th in the league in QBR as a rookie to 28th in the 2022 season.
Whether that's a blip on the radar of his overall development or a harbinger of things to come is going to decide where the Patriots offense ranks in the hierarchy.
Right now, there are too many teams that did more to improve to feel great about ranking them higher.
25. Washington Commanders
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2022 EPA Rank: 25
2022 Scoring Rank: 24
Key Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, C/G Nick Gates, OT Andrew Wylie, C Ricky Stromberg
Key Losses: QB Carson Wentz, QB Taylor Heinicke, C/G Wes Schweitzer, WR Cam Sims
The Commanders' best hope for an improved offense is going to come from improved pass protection and addition by subtraction.
Safe to say, the Carson Wentz era was a bust. The veteran only started seven games for Washington, going 2-5 in those starts and throwing 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions. Taylor Heinicke was slightly better, going 5-3-1 with a 12-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Commanders made two sneaky good signings who should help them be a little better in 2023.
Jacoby Brissett might not be the most exciting quarterback option, but he was eighth in total QBR last season. His ability to simply distribute the ball to an exciting group of receivers that includes Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel is an underrated development this offseason that raises the ceiling on this offense—unless he doesn't win the job over second-year quarterback Sam Howell.
Andrew Wylie didn't highlight the tackle class, but he was another under-the-radar addition who should help the Commanders move closer to average. He's made 59 starts over the last five years in Kansas City.
He's also familiar with new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, who will look to prove he can engineer a successful offense out of the shadow of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
24. Carolina Panthers
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2022 EPA Rank: 21
2022 Scoring Rank: 20
Key Additions: WR Adam Thielen, WR D.J. Chark, TE Hayden Hurst, RB Miles Sanders, QB Andy Dalton, QB Bryce Young, WR Jonathan Mingo
Key Losses: WR D.J. Moore, RB D'Onta Foreman, QB Philip Walker, G Pat Elflein
There's a whole lot of projection involved when you start to break down what the Panthers offense will look like.
Last year's team finished higher than you would think a team that started Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker at quarterback should.
Hypothetically, No. 1 pick Bryce Young is an upgrade over that trio, even as a rookie. Frank Reich taking over as the head coach with an offensive staff that includes Thomas Brown, Jim Caldwell and Duce Staley gives them a terrific blend of experience with innovative, young coaches.
Miles Sanders will get the opportunity to run the ball behind an offensive line that returns all five starters and should benefit from continuity.
The problem is that these are hypothetical positives because we haven't seen Young take an NFL snap, Reich is in his first year with Carolina, and there are a lot of new pieces who haven't had time to jell.
What is tangible is the loss of D.J. Moore. He was a legitimate No. 1 receiver the Panthers will now have to replace with a combination of DJ Chark, Adam Thielen and Terrace Marshall Jr.
This is a unit that should get better as the season goes along, but it's hard to rank them any higher at this juncture.
23. Green Bay Packers
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2022 EPA Rank: 11
2022 Scoring Rank: 14
Key Additions: TE Luke Musgrave, WR Jayden Reed, TE Tucker Kraft
Key Losses: QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Robert Tonyan Jr., TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb
it's tough to gauge the Packers because Aaron Rodgers' departure surely means something, but it's hard to figure out how much it matters when they finished as high as they did when Rodgers finished 26th in QBR.
The Packers still have a deep and versatile offensive line. David Bakhtiari returned to form last season, and Elgton Jenkins joined him in the top 12, according to PFF's rankings at their respective positions.
That group up front, along with the backfield duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, will have to carry the weight.
The Packers receiver room is possibly the youngest in the league. Right now, the front-runners to start are second-year players Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs with rookie Jayden Reed.
Combine that with a quarterback in Love who only has 83 passes across three seasons in the league and it's really hard to know what to make of this offense.
The run game and the offensive background of Matt LaFleur set the floor, but the development of this young passing attack will determine the ceiling.
22. Denver Broncos
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2022 EPA Rank: 27
2022 Scoring Rank: 32
Key Additions: OT Mike McGlinchey, WR Marquez Callaway, TE Adam Trautman, OG Ben Powers, WR Marvin Mims, RB Samaje Perine
Key Losses: RB Chase Edmonds, TE Eric Saubert, T/G Billy Turner, OG Graham Glasgow, OT Calvin Anderson, TE Eric Tomlinson
The good news here is that the Broncos attacked the offseason like a team should when they finish last in the league in scoring. They went out and got Sean Payton, regarded as a top offensive mind in football, to fix the problem.
His clout is important if they are going to salvage the Russell Wilson trade. He has the credibility to take charge of the offense and decide just how much the veteran quarterback will cook this season.
The bad news is that Wilson might just be cooked. He didn't just have a slight drop-off last year, he transformed into a legitimately bad quarterback. His 60.5 completion percentage, 84.4 passer rating and 36.7 QBR were all career lows.
The tools are there for the offense to be successful. Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers were key upgrades on the offensive line. Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and KJ Hamler, along with tight end Greg Dulcich, are all young and exciting pass-catching options.
When healthy, Javonte Williams is an explosive running back, and he has been joined by former Bengals backup Samaje Perine.
But the Wilson question is still at the heart of it all. Based on what we saw from him last season, Payton has his work cut out for him.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
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2022 EPA Rank: 14
2022 Scoring Rank: 26
Key Additions: WR Allen Robinson II, OG Isaac Seumalo, OG Nate Herbig, OT Broderick Jones, TE Darnell Washington
Key Losses: None
It's easy to like what the Steelers did on offense this offseason.
Isaac Seumalo is a proven veteran contributor who will elevate the level of play on the interior. His experience in the first seven years of his career with the Philadelphia Eagles should help make the pocket more secure for Kenny Pickett and open up more lanes for Najee Harris.
Trading up in the first round to secure Broderick Jones was a smart move on paper, too. Dan Moore Jr. played well for a fourth-round pick over the last two seasons, but Jones brings a lot more raw ability to the table.
Darnell Washington was a great value in the third round and should allow the Steelers to be lethal in 12 personnel with Washington and Pat Freiermuth both on the field.
Taking a shot on Allen Robinson II to fill out a strong receiving corps with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson could prove prudent as well. Robinson struggled with the Rams and Bears over the last two seasons, but neither of those situations was ideal.
All of these moves are good, but it's important to remember that Pickett is still a second-year quarterback, Jones could have some growing pains as a rookie left tackle, and Robinson could simply not be the player he used to be.
There's reason for optimism, but there's also reason for it to be cautious optimism.
20. Chicago Bears
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2022 EPA Rank: 23
2022 Scoring Rank: 23
Key Additions: WR D.J. Moore, TE Robert Tonyan, RB D'Onta Foreman, OG Nate Davis, RB Travis Homer, OT Darnell Wright, RB Roschon Johnson
Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, OT Riley Reiff, C Sam Mustipher, OG Michael Schofield, WR Byron Pringle, WR N'Keal Harry
The Chicago Bears have put together most of the pieces necessary to give Justin Fields a chance to have a breakout year in 2023. He showed flashes as a second-year player, but there's still growth that needs to take place for the Bears to get into the top half of the league.
He now has a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The acquisition of D.J. Moore was the biggest asset returned when the Bears traded down in the draft from No. 1 to No. 9. Moore has proved capable of putting up good numbers with a litany of average-to-bad quarterbacks during his time in Carolina.
His presence will have a trickle-down effect, putting Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool in better opportunities to succeed.
D'Onta Foreman was an underrated free-agent pickup. He should team up with fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert to more than make up for the loss of David Montgomery.
The Bears' ability to elevate themselves beyond this spot comes down to two things: Fields' development as a passer and the growth of the offensive line. Fields was ranked 30th in QBR when you take out his rushing. Braxton Jones is a second-year player who figures to start at left tackle, and they will have a rookie in Darnell Wright on the right.
19. Las Vegas Raiders
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2022 EPA Rank: 15
2022 Scoring Rank: 12
Key Additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Austin Hooper, WR DeAndre Carter, WR Phillip Dorsett, TE O.J. Howard, TE Michael Mayer, WR Tre Tucker, WR Cam Sims
Key Losses: QB Derek Carr, WR Mack Hollins, TE Darren Waller, TE Foster Moreau
In Josh McDaniels' first season as head coach, he was pretty much trying to run his offense with Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock's roster. New general manager Dave Ziegler traded for Davante Adams and made a few other moves, but the roster was mostly intact.
This year, McDaniels and Ziegler have definitely reshaped the offense to their liking.
The question is whether it's going to be better. They moved away from Derek Carr and will hand the reins over to Jimmy Garoppolo, who has an established relationship with McDaniels from their time in New England.
The duo of Josh Jacobs at running back and Adams at receiver gives them a top-five player at their respective positions. Garoppolo is a fine conductor when given elite musicians, but he ranked 16th in QBR last season while Carr ranked 14th.
Long-term, trading Darren Waller away and drafting Michael Mayer will likely pan out. Waller will turn 31 early in the season and has been limited to 20 games over the last two years by injury. In the short term, though, Mayer could take a little bit of time to adjust to the NFL.
The Raiders offensive line also continues to be a question after it surrendered 12 sacks over the final four weeks of the season. Their development and Garoppolo's ability to quickly jell with his new personnel will be key.
18. New Orleans Saints
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2022 EPA Rank: 22
2022 Scoring Rank: 22
Key Additions: QB Derek Carr, RB Jamaal Williams, RB Kendre Miller
Key Losses: QB Andy Dalton, TE Adam Trautman, WR Marquez Callaway, RB Mark Ingram, WR Jarvis Landry
Derek Carr is an upgrade over the 35-year-old version of Andy Dalton who led the Saints last season. But how much better is he, really?
The Saints were merely below average on offense last season, but Dalton wasn't completely to blame. He ranked 21st in QBR (50.7), which was seven spots lower than Carr (55.5), who came in at No. 14.
As you can see from the "key additions" and "key losses," this Saints offense is going to look nearly identical to the version we saw in 2022 with a few key exceptions. Andrus Peat and Trevor Penning should be healthy, giving the offensive line a boost, and Jarvis Landry is gone. Carr will be at the helm of it all.
Alvin Kamara may not be available for a sizable chunk of the season. The running back is facing a possible suspension in connection to battery charges and has entered a not-guilty plea.
The additions of Jamaal Williams in free agency and Kendre Miller through the draft should help keep the run game afloat if Kamara misses time.
The receiving corps is still a bit scary. They need Michael Thomas to return to his old form because there isn't a standout receiver to pair with Chris Olave after his strong rookie season.
17. New York Giants
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2022 EPA Rank: 9
2022 Scoring Rank: 15
Key Additions: TE Darren Waller, WR Parris Campbell, C John Michael Schmitz, WR Jalin Hyatt
Key Losses: OG Jon Feliciano, WR Richie James, C/G Nick Gates, WR Kenny Golladay
As an offense, the New York Giants' success was a testament to what competent coaching can do.
They were 32nd in EPA per play at the end of 2021. Brian Daboll came in and made them a top 10 offense by that metric with a cast of players that was nearly identical. The team's leading passer (Daniel Jones), rusher (Saquon Barkley) and receiver (Darius Slayton) were all on the roster for Joe Judge in 2021, it was all about Daboll's scheme bringing about the best in them.
Most importantly, he unlocked the rushing aspect of Jones' game. He ran for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns, giving the Giants another dimension to their offense and lightening his burden as a passer.
It's a great foundation and evidence that Daboll is the perfect fit for the franchise. It's just fair to wonder how high the ceiling is for the unit. Jalin Hyatt should help, but the receiving corps still doesn't have a No. 1 who is going to scare secondaries.
Darren Waller's injury history casts reasonable doubt on how much he'll be able to play and what he'll look like by the end of 2023. He's only played 20 games over the last two seasons.
This offense proved to be competent in 2022. It just might stay in that range in 2023.
16. Atlanta Falcons
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2022 EPA Rank: 19
2022 Scoring Rank: 16
Key Additions: WR Mack Hollins, TE Jonnu Smith, QB Taylor Heinicke, WR Scott Miller, RB Bijan Robinson, T/G Matthew Bergeron
Key Losses: G/T Elijah Wilkinson, OG Colby Gossett, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, WR Damiere Byrd
There's something to be said for knowing who you are and leaning into it.
While the rest of the NFL seems to be stockpiling wide receivers and hoping to land the next star at quarterback, the Falcons are angling to be the best in the league at running the ball.
That's why they went ahead and took Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick despite finishing fourth in yards per carry and third in total rushing with 2,718 yards. They turned fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier into a 1,000-yard rusher in his rookie season.
Their free-agent moves weren't splashy, but they also conform to a team identity. Jonnu Smith is going to allow them to be versatile in 12 personnel with Kyle Pitts and Smith on the field at the same time. Mack Hollins (6'4", 221 pounds) gives them another big-bodied receiver to pair with Drake London (6'4", 213 pounds) and additional blockers on every play.
Arthur Smith is the right guy to bring this personnel together. At Tennessee, he helped build offenses around Derrick Henry that went to, and had success in, the playoffs. The biggest question is whether Desmond Ridder can be the quarterback who makes it work.
This team isn't going to approach offense the same as most of the league. They are well-equipped to forge a unique identity, though.
15. Cleveland Browns
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2022 EPA Rank: 12
2022 Scoring Rank: 18
Key Additions: WR Elijah Moore, WR Marquise Goodwin, TE Jordan Akins, OG Colby Gossett, QB Josh Dobbs, WR Cedric Tillman
Key Losses: RB Kareem Hunt, RB D'Ernest Johnson, QB Jacoby Brissett, C/G Hjalte Froholdt
If there's a group that could move from the middle of these rankings to the top five this season, it feels like it's the Cleveland Browns.
In some ways, last year was a throwaway season. The transition to Deshaun Watson at quarterback was a long and arduous process. Watson served an 11-game suspension after sitting out the 2021 season, and he looked like a quarterback who hadn't played for nearly two seasons once he did hit the field.
He was out of the game that long amid the league's investigation into 25 civil lawsuits filed against him by women accusing him of sexual assault or sexual misconduct during massage appointments.
With a full offseason to work with the Browns roster and head coach Kevin Stefanski, there's a chance he looks like the quarterback who threw 4,823 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2020 and made the Pro Bowl.
The Browns went out and got some weapons for him to work with, too. Elijah Moore is an explosive slot option the Browns didn't really have last season, and Cedric Tillman should contend with Donovan Peoples-Jones right away to play across from Amari Cooper on the outside.
The team has elite talent on every level of the offense. Kareem Hunt is gone, but Nick Chubb still anchors the backfield behind a strong offensive line. The biggest question is just whether they can actually bring it together with a cohesive approach.
14. New York Jets
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2022 EPA Rank: 30
2022 Scoring Rank: 29
Key Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, C Wes Schweitzer, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, T/G Billy Turner, WR Mecole Hardman, C Joe Tippmann
Key Losses: WR Elijah Moore, WR Braxton Berrios, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, OG Nate Herbig, OT George Fant, QB Joe Flacco
The Jets are making a sizable bet that Aaron Rodgers still has the ability to be an elite quarterback.
They have certainly given him everything he could want to make it happen. Rodgers will reunite with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett after both parties had rough seasons without each other. Rodgers posted a career-low 39.3 QBR, while Hackett was fired before even completing his first season as the Denver Broncos head coach.
Joe Douglas even got former Packers receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, giving Rodgers even more familiarity with his new team and offense.
Breece Hall's return to the lineup will make them even more dangerous. He was averaging 5.8 yards per carry and had 681 scrimmage yards in seven games before his season was ended prematurely with a torn ACL.
On paper, the pieces are mostly in place for the Jets to make a drastic leap from being one of the worst offenses in the league last season.
There are reasons to be dubious, though. If Rodgers' poor play last season was a sign of things to come, they could be in trouble. The tackle trio of Mekhi Becton, Max Mitchell and Duane Brown also brings concerns.
Becton missed all of 2022 and played in just one game in 2021 with knee injuries. Brown is 37 years old, and Mitchell gave up three sacks and earned a 55.5 grade from PFF on 341 snaps.
13. Seattle Seahawks
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2022 EPA Rank: 13
2022 Scoring Rank: 9
Key Additions: C Evan Brown, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, RB Zach Charbonnet
Key Losses: RB Travis Homer, WR Marquise Goodwin, RB Rashaad Penny
If you had "Geno Smith leads a top-10 scoring offense in 2022" on your NFL bingo card, then you might want to consider playing the lottery. The 32-year-old's sudden emergence as a quality NFL starter who won the Comeback Player of the Year award was one of the most surprising storylines in the league.
Now we get to see if he has an encore performance in him after signing a three-year, $75 million contract this offseason.
Drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba should help. He takes them from a dynamic duo with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to an electric trio that should stress out opposing secondaries.
The Zach Charbonnet pick in the second round was a bit of a head-scratcher, but it gives them a one-two punch with 2022 second-rounder Kenneth Walker III in the same backfield.
It was a relatively quiet offseason on this side of the ball, so it feels a bit like they are treading water. That's fine. They were expected to be in full rebuild mode last season, but they've built something above-average with Smith at quarterback.
If the rookies end up hitting the ground running, they could be even better this year. For now, they stay about the same.
12. Minnesota Vikings
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2022 EPA Rank: 18
2022 Scoring Rank: 8
Key Additions: TE Josh Oliver, WR Jordan Addison
Key Losses: TE Irv Smith Jr., WR Adam Thielen
Barring any major moves from here until Week 1, the Vikings are mostly bringing back the same offense that was 18th in EPA but eighth in scoring. It was one of the biggest gulfs between the two metrics in the league last season.
Essentially, they'll be swapping out Irv Smith Jr. as their second tight end for Josh Oliver. The latter is a better fit. With T.J. Hockenson taking over as the primary pass-catching tight end, Oliver makes sense as a blocking specialist.
Replacing Adam Thielen with Jordan Addison gives them a little more juice. Thielen's production has declined in each of the last two seasons, and Addison is an explosive rookie receiver who could thrive right away across from Justin Jefferson.
The result is an offense that might only be marginally improved from last year's. They get some points for continuity, but it's hard to see them being much more than they were last season, and this ranking generally splits the difference between their scoring offense and EPA per play.
11. Miami Dolphins
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2022 EPA Rank: 7
2022 Scoring Rank: 11
Key Additions: WR Chosen Anderson, WR Braxton Berrios, QB Mike White, TE Eric Saubert, RB Devon Achane
Key Losses: TE Mike Gesicki, TE Hunter Long, OT Greg Little, WR Trent Sherfield, C/G Michael Deiter, OT Brandon Shell, QB Teddy Bridgewater
As long as this team has a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike McDaniel guiding the offense, they are going to have an above-average group.
Tagovailoa's ball placement combined with the speed of that receiver duo and the creativity of McDaniel provides a synergy that worked some serious magic last season.
Hill proved that his greatness wasn't just a product of playing in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes. Waddle showed he has the makeup to be one of the best No. 2 receivers in the league.
That being said, there was still work to do to provide better fits after those two in the offense. Chosen Anderson and Braxon Berrios provide a little more depth at receiver as pass-catchers who could take advantage of the openings that Hill and Waddle create for others.
The biggest offseason addition might be Achane, though. The third-round pick ran a 4.32 40-yard dash in the pre-draft process and has the type of speed the 31-year-old Raheem Mostert has without the age concerns.
The offensive line keeps this group from being ranked any higher. Terron Armstead is the best of the bunch, and his injury history makes him a risky bet to rely on.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
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2022 EPA Rank: 8
2022 Scoring Rank: 10
Key Additions: WR Calvin Ridley (coming back from suspension), RB D'Ernest Johnson, OG Chandler Brewer, OT Anton Harrison, TE Brenton Strange, RB Tank Bigsby
Key Losses: OT Jawaan Taylor, TE Chris Manhertz, WR Marvin Jones
The Jaguars didn't do a whole lot to an offense that broke out in 2022. That's alright. Some continuity is crucial for a team that added a bunch of pieces to the offense last offseason.
Christian Kirk, Evan Engram (as long as he signs the franchise tag), Brandon Scherff and Zay Jones are all returning for their second season with the franchise. They were crucial in Trevor Lawrence's leap in Year 2.
Now they get to add Calvin Ridley, who will return from suspension with the ability to be a No. 1 receiver.
Replacing Urban Meyer with Doug Pederson and bringing in some solid receiving options transformed this group into a fringe top-10 offense. Continuity and continued synergy should keep it in that realm.
The biggest concern is the departure of Jawaan Taylor in free agency. The Chiefs paid a hefty price to take him away. Cam Robinson and Ben Bartch both suffered season-ending injuries and will be trying to work their way back to health over the summer.
That could leave the Jaguars starting Anton Harrison and former second-round pick Walker Little as their starting tackles to start the season. The injuries and relative inexperience that would be forced into the lineup could make life a little more difficult for Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne.
But those are temporary problems that shouldn't keep the Jags from taking a step back.
9. Baltimore Ravens
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2022 EPA Rank: 17
2022 Scoring Rank: 19
Key Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Nelson Agholor, WR Zay Flowers
Key Losses: OG Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver
It wasn't always pretty, but the contract negotiations with quarterback Lamar Jackson finally yielded a five-year $260 million contract that will keep him in Baltimore for the foreseeable future.
That's enough to guarantee their spot in the top 10.
From Week 1 to 11, the Ravens were ninth in EPA per play, signifying the difference that Jackson makes with his unique skill set. Now, he'll get the opportunity to play with the most talented supporting cast of wide receivers he has ever had.
Signing Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor while drafting Zay Flowers gives them two proven veterans and an explosive rookie who should start from Day 1 as a slot receiver.
It all coincides with the transition from Greg Roman to Todd Monken as offensive coordinator. The latter will be tasked with opening the offense up a bit while maintaining the run game powered by Jackson's mobility.
The only thing holding them back is health. Jackson has dealt with injuries that limited him to 12 games in each of the last two seasons, OBJ is coming off a torn ACL, and J.K. Dobbins has struggled to remain healthy throughout his three years in the league.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
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2022 EPA Rank: 16
2022 Scoring Rank: 13
Key Additions: WR Quentin Johnston
Key Losses: OG Matt Feiler, WR DeAndre Carter
This ranking is more or less a bet that Justin Herbert is going to bounce back after a bit of a slump in his third season.
The Chargers were fifth in EPA per play in 2021 and boasted the same rank in scoring. The primary difference between that team and the 2022 version was health.
Austin Ekeler played in all 17 games, but he was the only star outside of Herbert to do so.
Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3. Keenan Allen dealt with a hamstring injury that slowed him or kept him out of the lineup throughout the year, and Mike Williams missed four games as well.
The result is a group that felt disjointed when healthy and shorthanded with difference-makers out of the lineup.
The personnel remains largely the same heading into next season. Slater should come back healthy, and the team drafted TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston with their first-round pick. That should give Herbert a strong trio of receivers when they are healthy and a young option who could step up if/when Allen or Williams are out of the lineup.
It's a group with proven production coming off a down year. Maybe the dip was real in 2022, but this feels like a buy-low group primed for a comeback in 2023.
7. Detroit Lions
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2022 EPA Rank: 6
2022 Scoring Rank: 5
Key Additions: OG Graham Glasgow, WR Marvin Jones, RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Sam LaPorta, QB Hendon Hooker
Key Losses: RB D'Andre Swift, RB Jamaal Williams, WR D.J Chark, C Evan Brown
The offensive line is at the heart of this ranking for the Lions. The Lions allowed the second-fewest sacks (24) on the season while tying for ninth in yards before contact in the run game.
That unit, which features Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell, is versatile and talented enough to allow offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to attack offenses with a diverse run game.
That running game will feature a different backfield in 2022. Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift are gone, with former Bears running back David Montgomery in the fold and 12th overall selection Jahmyr Gibbs entering as a potential star running back from Day 1.
"Players with his burst and top-end speed can be game-changers under the right conditions. Gibbs would be best served in a system that runs outside zone, pin-pull and counter frequently to maximize his ability in space and on the perimeter," B/R scout Derrik Klassen wrote about Gibbs before comparing him to Dalvin Cook in his scouting report.
Those are exactly the kinds of ways the Lions figure to deploy Gibbs.
The only knock on the Lions' ranking is a suspect group of receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a stud in the slot, but Jameson Williams is going to be suspended for six games for violating the league's gambling policy.
The return of 33-year-old Marvin Jones isn't enough to make up for a lack of playmakers on the outside.
6. San Francisco 49ers
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2022 EPA Rank: 4
2022 Scoring Rank: 6
Key Additions: QB Sam Darnold, OT Matt Pryor, OG Jon Feliciano, TE Cam Latu
Key Losses: OT Mike McGlinchey, QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Kyle Shanahan's reputation as one of the best offensive minds in football was already well-established, but 2022 might have been his best work yet.
In a league in which most teams are constantly looking for the high-ceiling quarterback who can take them to the next level, the San Francisco 49ers had one of the top offenses with Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy all starting games.
They might have really found something in Purdy. He was the final pick of the 2022 draft but went 7-1 as the starter, including two playoff wins.
Some of that is because Purdy was much better than expected, but some it is because the Niners have built an environment that makes it hard for quarterbacks to fail. You'll be hard-pressed to find a better group of skill players than Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
Shanahan's scheme is great at getting the ball to their playmakers in different ways, utilizes play-action passing and uses pre-snap motion to constantly keep the defense guessing.
That certainly makes life easier on quarterbacks.
Still, the Niners get a slight ding because Purdy's status is up in the air heading into the season. Shanahan recently told media that Purdy is on track to return by training camp from the UCL injury that took him out of the NFC Championship Game, but he's not throwing a football yet, per David Lombardi of The Athletic.
If Trey Lance or Sam Darnold have to play significant time, it makes it a little harder to know what this unit will look like.
5. Dallas Cowboys
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2022 EPA Rank: 10
2022 Scoring Rank: 4
Key Additions: WR Brandin Cooks, RB Ronald Jones II, TE Luke Schoonmaker
Key Losses: G/C Connor McGovern, TE Dalton Schultz, WR Noah Brown, RB Ezekiel Elliott
The Cowboys had to deal with a lot of turnover in 2022. They also had to deal with a lot of turnovers from Dak Prescott.
The first problem should be alleviated in 2023. The Cowboys' core more or less remains intact. They lost Dalton Schultz in free agency, but he didn't follow up on his breakout 2021 campaign, only grabbing 57 receptions for 577 yards.
The Cowboys will likely be able to replace his production with a three-pronged group of young guys in Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot and second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker.
Ezekiel Elliott is no longer on the roster, although a reunion isn't off the table. Whether or not that happens, it's probably good that the electric Tony Pollard is going to be the featured back after averaging 5.9 yards per touch and 1,378 total yards last season.
The most exciting addition to the group is Brandin Cooks. The Cowboys missed Amari Cooper as a receiver who could take some pressure off Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. After Prescott threw a career-high 15 interceptions, it became clear they needed more at receiver than Lamb and Michael Gallup.
Now they have Cooks, who has secondary-shifting speed and should be a force multiplier in the passing game.
An offensive line that could compete to be the best in football brings it all together. If Tyron Smith can stay healthy, it would allow them to move Tyler Smith to play left guard, giving them a great starting five of both Smiths, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin and Terence Steele.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
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2022 EPA Rank: 5
2022 Scoring Rank: 7
Key Additions: OT Orlando Brown Jr., TE Irv Smith Jr., RB Chase Brown
Key Losses: TE Hayden Hurst, RB Samaje Perine
The Bengals were once again one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season. All they did was add another good player at a premium position who could bring increased stability to an offensive line that needs it.
When the Chiefs decided to pay Jawaan Taylor instead of Orlando Brown Jr., the Bengals became a big winner, signing Brown to a four-year, $64.1 million contract. It kills two birds with one stone, as Brown is an upgrade over Jonah Williams, who now moves to right tackle as an upgrade over the version of La'el Collins they had last season.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Williams has requested a trade, but that hasn't materialized.
Until it does, the protection in front of Burrow is even better. That's important because he still has the best receiving corps to throw to with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd forming one of the best trios in the league.
The only major question mark is at running back. Joe Mixon's production dipped last season as he averaged 3.9 yards per carry, and he is facing an aggravated menacing charge after allegedly pointing a gun at a woman in January. He has pleaded not guilty.
Backup Samaje Perine, now with Denver, wasn't much better than Mixon at 4.1 per tote. Fifth-round draft pick Chase Brown might be able to add some juice to the depth chart.
The improved offensive line should help in that regard, too, though.
When Joe Burrow signs a contract extension, it will likely lock this group into the top five on this list for years to come.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
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2022 EPA Rank: 3
2022 Scoring Rank: 3
Key Additions: WR Olamide Zaccheaus, RB D'Andre Swift, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Rashaad Penny, T/G Tyler Steen
Key Losses: RB Miles Sanders, OG Isaac Seumalo, OT Andre Dillard, WR Zach Pascal, QB Gardner Minshew
General manager Howie Roseman and the Philadelphia Eagles have officially drawn up a blueprint on offense that teams are destined to be copying for the next decade.
They took an ultra-athletic quarterback in Jalen Hurts, paired him with a creative offensive mind like Shane Steichen, gave him a great offensive line and added some elite receivers.
In return, Hurts became the kind of quarterback worth a five-year, $255 million contract. In 2023, the Eagles transformed from a team with a great running game to one that can also throw all over you. Hurts was 12th in passing EPA.
The unit should be right back near the top of the statistical categories again this year. Miles Sanders and Isaac Seumalo are the most significant losses. The Eagles did a nice job of making up for Sanders' absence by trading for D'Andre Swift and signing Rashaad Penny. Both were low-risk, high-reward investments.
Olamide Zaccheaus could be a sneaky-good signing. He is a good complement in the slot, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith being the primary targets at wide receiver.
The Eagles picked Cam Jurgens in the second round of last year's draft in anticipation of losing veterans on the interior. There was clearly a plan in place to replace who they lost without missing a beat.
The only question is in the transition from Steichen to former quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson as offensive coordinator.
2. Buffalo Bills
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2022 EPA Rank: 2
2022 Scoring Rank: 2
Key Additions: RB Damien Harris, WR Trent Sherfield, RB Latavius Murray, G/C Connor McGovern, OG David Edwards, TE Dalton Kincaid, OG O'Cyrus Torrence
Key Losses: WR Isaiah McKenzie, RB Devin Singletary, OG Rodger Saffold, OG Greg Van Roten, WR Cole Beasley
It's always interesting to see how the top offensive teams in the league are going to evolve. With Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills have one of the best offenses in the league, but they've been just short of a run to the Super Bowl.
Despite finishing second in EPA per play and scoring, the Bills have made a definite shift this offseason when you look at their personnel moves.
Gone are tiny slot receivers Isaiah McKenzie and Cole Beasley. In their stead are blocking receiver Trent Sherfield and tight end Dalton Kincaid, with the latter capable of being a jumbo slot receiver.
Devin Singletary (5'7", 203 pounds) was replaced by Latavius Murray (6'3", 230 pounds) and Damien Harris (5'11", 214 pounds).
The Bills ran the lowest amount of 12 personnel in the league last season, per 33rd Team. It's safe to bet that's going to change with Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the roster.
Last year, the Bills were an explosive offense, but it relied too heavily on Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen. They have a much bigger and more physical lineup now. One of the best offenses in football just got more versatile.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
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2022 EPA Rank: 1
2022 Scoring Rank: 1
Key Additions: OT Donovan Smith, OT Jawaan Taylor, WR Richie James, WR Rashee Rice, OT Wanya Morris
Key Losses: OT Orlando Brown Jr., WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, OT Andrew Wylie, RB Ronald Jones II, WR Mecole Hardman
If there's one takeaway from last season, it's that as long as the Chiefs have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, they are going to be a dangerous offense.
The Chiefs finished No. 1 in just about every important category despite losing a game-changing talent like Tyreek Hill this season. That's why it's easy to have confidence they belong in the top spot even while losing JuJu Smith-Schuster, both of their starting tackles and Mecole Hardman.
The Chiefs signed Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith. Taylor gives them an athletic upgrade over Andrew Wylie at right tackle. Smith is coming off a bad season in which he surrendered six sacks and had 12 penalties, but there wasn't a lot that went right for the Bucs offense, and the chance to play for a successful team again could be enough for him to return to form.
Mahomes and the Chiefs found ways to replace Hill. Doing the same with Smith-Schuster and Hardman won't be a problem. Kelce is the true No. 1 receiver, and their supporting cast of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, James and Rice will all chip in to do the rest.
Discovering Isiah Pacheco in the seventh round of last year's draft is the kind of find that can help keep the unit on top. He should build on his 960 total yards as a rookie.
The only question is whether the loss of Eric Bienemy will have any impact on their schematic advantage, but Andy Reid has been doing this for a long time.
The Chiefs remain the undisputed king of offense until proved otherwise.
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