MLB Starting Lineup and Rotation Changes That Need to Happen
There's no shame in admitting when things aren't working out, and that goes just as much for Major League Baseball teams as for the rest of us.
So, let's discuss how some teams might to do that by making necessary changes—i.e., not ones like the St. Louis Cardinals are making with Willson Contreras—to their starting lineups and rotations.
For this, we looked for players who are either underperforming in important roles or overperforming in less important ones. Think guys who should be dropped or elevated in batting orders and pitchers who would be better off in the bullpen than in the rotation and vice versa. That simple.
There are 10 changes we want to see, split evenly between ones involving five hitters and five pitchers.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Move Geraldo Perdomo Up in the Order
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Age: 23
Stats: 27 G, 87 PA, 2 HR, 3 SB, .380 AVG, .470 OBP, .592 SLG
Here's a fun fact about Geraldo Perdomo: set the bar for entry at 80 plate appearances, and he has the highest OPS of any hitter in the National League.
You'd think the Diamondbacks would want a guy like that batting at the top or in the middle of their order, but that hasn't been the case. Of Perdomo's 20 starts, 16 have come with him batting out of the No. 8 or No. 9 spot.
If there's a rational explanation for this, it has to do with how Perdomo's results are probably running too hot. As highlighted by his .239 expected batting average, his under-the-hood metrics amount to a giant warning sign of regression to come.
All the same, the Snakes don't have much to lose by putting Perdomo in the leadoff spot and seeing what he can do. Josh Rojas has gotten the bulk of reps at No. 1 and has mostly squandered them to the tune of a .649 OPS.
Philadelphia Phillies: Move Brandon Marsh Up in the Order
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Age: 25
Stats: 33 G, 117 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .314 AVG, .402 OBP, .578 SLG
Elsewhere on the topic of teams that are giving leadoff reps to the wrong guy, Bryson Stott has managed just a .299 OBP in the 20 games he's started in the No. 1 spot.
If the Phillies must have a left-handed batter in front of Trea Turner in the No. 2 spot, why not the guy with the on-base percentage that starts with a four?
That's Marsh, and he differs from Perdomo in his strong results being backed up by strong metrics. His percentiles are mostly above average, with the best being his 86th-percentile average exit velocity of 92.0 mph.
Yet arguably the most important improvement Marsh has made this season is in his performance against left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a stellar 1.066 OPS. He thus checks all the boxes for a guy the Phillies should want setting the table.
Toronto Blue Jays: Move George Springer Down in the Order
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Age: 33
Stats: 34 G, 150 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .210 AVG, .273 OBP, .304 SLG
The notion that George Springer shouldn't be batting leadoff is borderline sacrilegious. That's where he's started 817 of the 888 games he's played in his career.
In the here and now, however, the four-time All-Star is doing more harm than good atop the Blue Jays lineup.
His .275 OBP out of the leadoff spot is the lowest for any hitter who's taken at least 140 plate appearances up there. And while a recent illness does offer a valid excuse, the deterioration of Springer's contact quality is still alarming. At 86.6 mph, his average exit velocity has never been lower.
Bo Bichette has put up a 1.386 OPS in the three games he's led off, so the spot could shift to him at least until Springer finds his stroke again. The Jays might even want to drop him as low as No. 7, where they've gotten only two home runs so far.
Cleveland Guardians: Move Josh Naylor out of the Cleanup Spot
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Age: 25
Stats: 32 G, 123 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .198 AVG, .252 OBP, .315 SLG
There's more than one reason why the Guardians are the lowest-scoring team in the American League, but it sure doesn't help that their cleanup guys have put forth just a .597 OPS. Only one AL team has done worse.
This isn't all Josh Naylor's fault. Just mostly.
Naylor simply isn't building on last year's 20-homer breakout, and even the possibility that he's been unlucky is only so much comfort. The real issue is that he's seen an increase in breaking balls and has thus far responded by hitting just .118 against them.
Though Naylor has made only 17 starts in the cleanup spot, that includes 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games. A better idea would be to use Josh Bell in the four hole, as he's at least been warming up with an .824 OPS over his last 14 games.
Houston Astros: Move José Abreu out of the Cleanup Spot
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Age: 36
Stats: 35 G, 147 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, .225 AVG, .272 OBP, .268 SLG
So, about that one team that's gotten a lower OPS out of the cleanup spot than the Guardians. It's the Astros, and it's pretty much all José Abreu's doing.
The 2020 AL MVP has started 30 of 35 games at cleanup and responded with a downright cringe-worthy .550 OPS.
Lest anyone think the slugger's power outage has come out of nowhere, he hit only four home runs in 67 games after last year's All-Star break. He's also just not hitting the ball well, specifically where his 87.5 mph average exit velocity is concerned. That's a career low.
It's only fair to note that Alex Bregman is a slow starter with a .533 OPS out of the cleanup spot in his own right, but he at least has more than zero home runs this season. It should be him splitting the left-handed bats of Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker.
New York Yankees: Move Clarke Schmidt to the Bullpen
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Age: 27
Stats: 7 GS, 29.1 IP, 41 H (7 HR), 36 K, 9 BB, 5.83 ERA
Injuries to Frankie Montas and Luis Severino provided Clarke Schmidt with a chance to show what he could do in the Yankees rotation. It's fair to say it's not going well.
Among pitchers who've made at least seven starts, only Spencer Turnbull and Brady Singer have done worse than Schmidt's minus-0.7 rWAR. The key to the right-hander's struggles is all in his platoon splits:
- vs. RHB: .692 OPS, 2 HR
- vs. LHB: 1.197 OPS, 5 HR
So much for the new cutter that was supposed to give Schmidt a weapon against left-handed batters. They're batting .500 with three home runs against it.
When Luis Severino is ready to come off the injured list—which he thinks should have already happened—the Yankees would do well to put Schmidt in the bullpen and see if he can hack it as a right-handed specialist. It may not sound like much of a role, but it's good to have one of those in a league where most batters are right-handed.
St. Louis Cardinals: Move Jack Flaherty to the Bullpen
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Age: 27
Stats: 7 GS, 34.1 IP, 34 H (5 HR), 36 K, 22 BB, 6.29 ERA
You could argue that Jack Flaherty's season didn't truly turn bad until his last time out on Thursday. He gave up 10 runs in 2.1 innings, resulting in his ERA ballooning from 3.94 to 6.29.
But given that neither Flaherty's stuff nor his control was very sharp in his first six outings, such an outing might have been inevitable. He has another problem in that his platoon split is just as pronounced as Schmidt's:
- vs. RHB: .552 OPS, 1 HR
- vs. LHB: 1.084 OPS, 4 HR
Whereas Schmidt isn't fooling lefties with his cutter, the problem for Flaherty is his slider. Lefty batters are hitting .364 against it, compared to .100 for righty batters.
With Matthew Liberatore shining with a 2.77 ERA for Triple-A Memphis, the Cardinals have at least one good option to replace Flaherty if they decide to try him out in the pen. And unless Jordan Hicks is going to lower his ERA from 6.60, that's where the Cardinals could use another righty anyway.
Boston Red Sox: Move Tanner Houck to the Bullpen
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Age: 26
Stats: 7 GS, 37.2 IP, 36 H (4 HR), 33 K, 14 BB, 5.26 ERA
Tanner Houck is yet another right-hander who struggles against left-handed batters, as their OPS against him is 347 points higher than the one right-handed batters have.
Where Houck differs from Schmidt and Flaherty, however, is in how he fares in his trips through the batting order:
- 1st Time: .374 OPS, 0 HR
- 2nd Time: .883 OPS, 1 HR
- 3rd Time: .967 OPS, 3 HR
When Houck goes through the opposing team's lineup the first time, he's basically Shohei Ohtani. After that, not so much.
A guy like that would be better off working as a multi-inning relief pitcher than as a starter, and it won't be long before the Red Sox will have an excuse to make that move. Garrett Whitlock and James Paxton are both due to come off the IL in the near future.
Los Angeles Angels: Move Jaime Barría into the Rotation
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Age: 26
Stats: 9 G, 4 GF, 20.1 IP, 14 H (2 HR), 20 K, 6 BB, 2.21 ERA
The Angels suddenly have a hole in their rotation. José Suarez pitched to an ugly 9.62 ERA through his first six starts and now he has an injured shoulder.
Though the Angels are likely to use Chase Silseth in Suarez's spot, we submit that it should be Jaime Barría who gets another look as a starter.
To be sure, the righty is working in relief because he mostly struggled as a starter between 2018 and 2021. But he's remained stretched out enough to handle multiple innings, and his 2023 story is the opposite of that of Schmidt, Flaherty and Houck in one respect.
That's in how Barría has conquered his platoon split, as he's holding lefty batters to a career-low .570 OPS. That's over a small sample of 33 matchups, but it's still a good excuse for the Angels to give him another shot at starting before calling on somebody else.
Philadelphia Phillies: Move Matt Strahm Back into the Rotation
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Age: 31
Stats: 8 G, 6 GS, 2 GF, 28.2 IP, 19 H (2 HR), 40 K, 8 BB, 3.14 ERA
Matt Strahm's first and most recent appearances this season have been out of the bullpen, and the word is that he's going to stay there after the Phillies activate Ranger Suárez.
Which is odd, considering that A) the Phillies already have two quality lefties in their pen and B) that Strahm looks like a better rotation option than Bailey Falter.
We say this in part because Falter himself has, um, faltered with a 5.75 ERA through seven starts, but also in part because Strahm was basically the anti-Houck in his six starts. Opposing batters' OPS against him was .595 his first time through the order and .571 the second time.
Even if two trips through the order is all Strahm is stretched out to handle, that's still a five-inning pitcher on a good day. A good one of those is really all a team needs to have at the back of its rotation.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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