2023 NBA Playoffs: Updated Bracket and Championship Predictions
As the second round of the NBA playoffs kick off, it's time to use what we've learned thus far to project how the remainder of the postseason will transpire.
The shocking first-round exit of the Milwaukee Bucks at the hands of the Miami Heat means either the eighth-seeded boys from South Beach or the fifth-seeded New York Knicks will reach the Eastern Conference Finals, but which one? Do the Los Angeles Lakers or Golden State Warriors move on in LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry Round 5? After Milwaukee entered the playoffs as the betting favorite to win the title, which team now takes its place?
With three rounds to go and a lot of questions left to be answered in what's become a wide-open race to the 2023 title, here's how the rest of the NBA playoffs should play out.
East Semifinals: (5) New York Knicks vs. (8) Miami Heat
1 of 7
While most would have expected Cavs vs. Bucks here, Heat vs. Knicks is giving us some serious '90s flashbacks. One of these teams will make a surprising pivot, pivot, pivot into the Eastern Conference Finals.
On paper, it makes no sense how this Heat team keeps winning. Yes, Jimmy Butler has been the postseason's best player to this point, but Miami is still barely winning his minutes overall (plus-1.4 net rating in 639 total possessions).
Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry have been incredibly steady at point guard, but the duo is no match for Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley's firepower in a seven-game series. This is a rock-solid Heat team that's incredibly well-coached yet lacks the depth of a Knicks squad that suddenly looks like a real player in the East for years to come.
Key Matchup: RJ Barrett vs. Jimmy Butler
We know all eyes will be on Butler after he put up 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals on 59.7 percent shooting against Milwaukee, a superhero-esque performance and one of the best individual series we've seen in years.
While the Knicks don't have to completely shut Butler down, they can't give up a 40- or 50-point performance like he had in the first round and expect to win.
With Julius Randle battling more ankle issues, Barrett will need to step up his own scoring and playmaking. He outdueled Donovan Mitchell over the last three games of the opening round (22.0 points on 55.8 percent shooting) and needs to continue that hot play against Miami.
Prediction: Knicks in 7. With all due respect to the Heat, this team nearly missed the postseason altogether. New York is deeper, has more top-end talent and showed off its defensive chops against the Cavs. Expect the Knicks to outlast Miami and move on.
East Semifinals: (2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers
2 of 7
While we saw upsets on the other side of the East bracket, a Philly-Boston clash is exactly what we expected (and looked forward to) in Round 2.
Of course, Joel Embiid's status will play a major role here. The all-world center is dealing with a sprained LCL (or worse) in his right knee and still isn't doing more than shooting during practice.
The Sixers have gone an impressive 13-5 without Embiid this season, including a Game 4 closeout win over the Brooklyn Nets in Round 1—and now a Game 1 victory in Round 2 over Boston.
The bad news for Philly? These Celtics are still on another level and beat the 76ers three out of four times in the regular season. In the lone Sixers win, Embiid went for 52 of the team's 103 total points and Philly still only won by two.
Key Matchup: Marcus Smart vs. James Harden
With Embiid likely to miss time, more of the offensive burden falls on the guard combo of Harden and Tyrese Maxey. That's bad news, considering the Celtics have some of the best perimeter defenders in basketball.
This starts with Smart, who will be matched up with both Harden and Maxey at times, forcing the star guards into contested jumpers and keeping them out of the paint.
Harden opened Game 1 in grand fashion scoring 45 points, which could keep the Sixers alive long enough for a potential return of Embiid.
Prediction: Celtics in 6. Boston would be the favorites here even with a healthy Embiid. After finishing first in net rating during the regular season (plus-6.7), the Celtics look destined for a return to the East finals and beyond.
West Semifinals: (6) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
3 of 7
If the majority of these Lakers-Warriors games didn't begin at 10 p.m. Eastern Time, this series may be the most watched second-round matchup ever.
Yes, star power reigns supreme here, but a lot of these games may be decided by some of the role players. Will Kevon Looney keep grabbing every single rebound like he did against the Sacramento Kings? Will Austin Reaves take over in the fourth quarter like he did in Game 1 against the Memphis Grizzlies? Players like Gary Payton II, Rui Hachimura and others can swing a close game as well.
This isn't just a matchup of some of the most talented players, but the smartest as well. Guys like LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have been in every situation imaginable and come out on top. This will be basketball at its best.
Key Matchup: Draymond Green vs. LeBron James
Perhaps no defender knows James and his tendencies better than Green, although stopping him is a different beast.
Green will likely split time between James and Anthony Davis in this series, forcing both into jumpers as much as possible. James shot just 19.5 percent from three against the Grizzlies, including 15.2 percent over the last four games of the series.
The Lakers could try to "hide" James on Green defensively, as he's no longer an offensive threat outside of screening and passing. Green has to be able to hit open shots to force James to break a sweat.
Prediction: Lakers in 7. Los Angeles continues to gain experience together and has a starting five that's been quite good (James, Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Reaves and Jarred Vanderbilt had a plus-10.5 net rating in Round 1) while the Warriors suddenly look vulnerable. This series will go the distance, with James and company eventually coming out on top.
.png?w=256)
West Semifinals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (4) Phoenix Suns
4 of 7
For all of the future Hall of Fame talent on this Suns squad, Phoenix certainly looked the part of a team that just came together while playing an injury-riddled Los Angeles Clippers team in the first round.
While Devin Booker (37.2 points on 60.2 percent shooting in the first round) and Kevin Durant (28.4 points on 51.8 percent) can make up for a lot of other weaknesses, this is an extremely top-heavy Suns squad that features a lack of depth and defensive talent.
Denver stumbled down the final stretch of the season yet looked like a No. 1 seed against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Chemistry matters as well, and the Nuggets star duo of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray has played together since the 2016-17 season, minus some time for Murray's ACL tear.
Key Matchup: Jamal Murray vs. Devin Booker
Murray and Booker aren't even the most talented players on their own teams, but nothing will decide this series more than the play of the two superstar guards.
While Booker is tied for the league lead in postseason scoring with Jimmy Butler, Murray isn't far behind at 28.3 points per game (seventh-highest).
Both can carry a team's offense for stretches with a "give-them-the-ball-and-get-out-of-the-way" attitude. Whoever can step up defensively and slow the other down will have a big impact on the series.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6. Even with Chris Paul (nearly 38) and Durant (turns 35 in September) playing on the back nine of their careers, Phoenix's best chance to win a title may actually be next year when this unit has gotten to spend more time together. Denver's chemistry, depth and talent win out here.
East Finals: (2) Boston Celtics vs. (5) New York Knicks
5 of 7
No disrespect to the Knicks, but Boston has to be thrilled to see them instead of the Milwaukee Bucks here.
After Milwaukee got knocked out by the Miami Heat in Round 1 and the injured Philadelphia 76ers were disposed of by Boston in our projections here, the Celtics get a relatively advantageous conference finals matchup against the Knicks before heading back to the NBA Finals.
New York is deep and talented and had the No. 1 offense in the NBA after the trade deadline, but it isn't a title contender just yet with so many young, inexperienced pieces. The Celtics were two wins away from a championship last summer and should cruise past the Knicks.
Key Matchup: Jalen Brunson vs. Jaylen Brown
While Julius Randle was the Knicks' only All-Star this season, no player is more important to the team's success than Brunson.
One of the best guards in the NBA at beating his man off the dribble and getting into the paint, Brunson averaged 24.0 points per game in Round 1 while only shooting 29.0 percent from three. Putting a bigger defender on him at times like Brown can help limit Brunson's driving lanes and keep him on the perimeter.
Brown had a strong regular-season showing against these Knicks, averaging 27.0 points and 7.3 rebounds in three games while shooting 37.5 percent from three. His offense will be needed, especially if Jayson Tatum (41.8 percent overall, 32.6 percent from deep against New York in the regular season) continues to struggle vs. the Knicks.
Prediction: Celtics in 6. New York will put up a fight, but this is Boston's time. The Knicks end their season with a surprising run to the East finals while the Celtics are back in the NBA Finals for the second consecutive season.
West Finals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 7
There are six total MVPs between LeBron James and Nikola Jokić here, superstars with very different levels of playoff success.
James will be looking to reach his 11th NBA Finals. Jokić, his first. The question becomes, how much does this postseason experience matter, especially since James' Lakers only came together just months ago?
Only two other five-man combos logged more total possessions than this Nuggets' starting five of Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Of the top 15 most used five-man lineups this season, Denver's net rating of plus-12.7 ranked first overall.
Gordon is a big, strong defensive option to use on James, although Anthony Davis represents a tough matchup for Jokić as well.
Key Matchup: Nikola Jokić vs. Anthony Davis
The battle of two of the NBA's best bigs will be on full display here, as both can control a game on opposite ends of the floor. Jokić is the league's best passing center while Davis is averaging 5.6 blocks and steals combined this postseason. Both are elite rebounders and scoring options who can take over on any given night.
Can Jokić use his massive frame to keep Davis away from the basket? How much will the Lakers look to attack him in the pick-and-roll?
If Jokić can play even average defense in this series, Denver stands a great chance to win.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7. With a 34-7 record at home this season, Denver doesn't even need to win on the road to take this series. The experience of this group trumps the raw talent on the Lakers.
NBA Finals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (2) Boston Celtics
7 of 7
We finally reached the mountaintop.
Both the Celtics and Nuggets feature the star power, experience, chemistry and coaching needed to win a title.
Nikola Jokić had his way with Boston's frontcourt in two regular-season games, averaging 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists on 66.7/66.7/91.7 shooting splits. Both Al Horford and Robert Williams III will have their work cut out for them.
Of course, Denver's ability to limit Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown's impact will be tested as well.
Key Matchup: Jamal Murray vs. Jayson Tatum
While Tatum and Murray won't see a lot of time matched up on each other, both could easily be the most important players in this series.
A wrist injury caused Tatum to struggle in the Finals last year, ultimately dooming the Celtics' chances at a championship. He'll be desperate to prove that his off shooting was a fluke, especially with a title and Finals MVP trophy within reach. Murray is a top-25 postseason scorer of all time (24.9 points per game), but he will be hounded by Marcus Smart, Derrick White and others.
Prediction: Celtics in 6. The Nuggets have postseason experience, but the Celtics have Finals experience and home-court advantage here. With the Milwaukee Bucks out of the picture, Boston advances all the way to the championship and finally wins its first title in the Tatum-Brown era.
Stats via NBA.com, Cleaning the Glass and Basketball Reference and up to date entering Monday's games.
.png?w=480)
.png?w=600 "New Mock with Lottery Odds Locked In 🔮")
