Fantasy Football 2023: Dynasty Rookie Rankings, 1st-Round Mock After NFL Draft

The long-awaited 2023 NFL draft is now over, and a host of talented offensive players have found new homes as they get set to embark on their professional careers.

It wouldn't be a surprise to look back on this draft in a few years time and see some stars littered throughout this class. Some are more obvious than others.

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick, should have every opportunity to shine for the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, Texas running back Bijan Robinson should immediately become the focal point of the Atlanta Falcons' offense.

A few other highly touted prospects slid a bit further down the draft board, but they could make teams regret that soon enough. One of them is Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who looks like a perfect fit in L.A. with quarterback Justin Herbert.

Other players aren't receiving as much attention but could make names for themselves sooner rather than later. Of note, productive Illinois running back Chase Brown found a great home in Cincinnati, where he could emerge as the leader of the backfield depending on what happens with Joe Mixon this offseason.

It's hard to gauge these rookies' fantasy football value in April since we don't have the luxury of training camp news and unofficial depth charts. But we can also make some deductions based on their team fits and collegiate profiles.

With that in mind, here's a look at a top-25 dynasty rookie ranking list, with a focus on projecting their production over the next four years (the length of a non-first-round rookie contract). You can also find a rookie-only first-round mock draft focusing on the 2023 season.

The focus here will be on Johnston and Brown, who can emerge as fantasy superstars sooner rather than later.

Top 25 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Next Four Years)

1. Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

2. Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs

3. Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young

4. Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

5. Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown

6. Las Vegas Raiders TE Michael Mayer

7. Miami Dolphins RB Devon Achane

8. Tennessee Titans RB Tyjae Spears

9. Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson

10. Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers

11. Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud

12. Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison

13. New York Giants WR Jalin Hyatt

14. Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

15. Detroit Lions QB Hendon Hooker

16. Seattle Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet

17. New Orleans Saints RB Kendre Miller

18. Carolina Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo

19. Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

20. Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta

21. New York Giants RB Eric Gray

22. Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs

23. Houston Texans WR Tank Dell

24. New York Jets RB Israel Abanikanda

25. Chicago Bears RB Roschon Johnson

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First-Round Rookie Mock (Predictions Specifically for 2023)

1. Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

2. Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs

3. Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

4. Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown

5. Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison

6. Las Vegas Raiders TE Michael Mayer

7. Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

8. Miami Dolphins RB Devon Achane

9. Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers

10. Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young

11. Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud

12. New York Giants WR Jalin Hyatt

Honorable Mentions: Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, Carolina Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo, Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson, Seattle Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet

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Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown

The Bengals' starting running back of the future may be Illinois' Chase Brown, a Doak Walker Award finalist who amassed 1,883 yards from scrimmage and 13 scores last year.

With Samaje Perine now a Denver Bronco after leaving in free agency, the door is open for Brown to take his spot behind Mixon and assume the mantle as RB1 in the near future.

Brown was an every-down back at Illinois, accumulating 355 touches in 2022 and 653 overall during his four years there. He's a good pass-catching back (27 receptions, 240 yards, three touchdowns) and an efficient runner who can produce in a limited capacity immediately.

Brown does need to work on his pass protection, which he admitted in his introductory talk with Bengals reporters Saturday. But he is now in the middle of an incredible offense and should get his chances to produce soon enough.

Mixon still sits ahead of him on the depth chart, but it's unclear for how long. He has rushed for less than four yards per carry in two of the past three seasons, including 3.9 yards per carry in 2022. He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry outside a monster game against the Carolina Panthers where he had 211 total yards and five scores.

Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin and executive vice president Katie Blackburn were non-committal when asked about Mixon's future with the team earlier this year.

The door is wide open for Brown to walk in and become the team's RB2 for the time being behind Mixon. That could lead to increased efficiency if given the chance:

Brown also earned a high relative athletic score during his predraft testing, per Kent Lee Platte of Pro Football Network.

In sum, Brown is a big name to watch in fantasy. He may be a Round 5 pick, but it's not impossible to see him becoming a surefire Round 1 fantasy selection in 2024.

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Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

The Chargers are under new offensive leadership, with Kellen Moore coming over from the Dallas Cowboys as the new offensive coordinator.

The Cowboys finished sixth, first and fourth in scoring in 2019, 2021 and 2022, respectively, under Moore. Dallas was a respectable 17th in 2020 despite missing quarterback Dak Prescott for 11-plus games with a broken leg.

So the arrow is pointing up in L.A., and the players should benefit under a new leader.

That includes Johnston, who should provide star quarterback Justin Herbert with another downfield, big-play threat a la Mike Williams.

The Chargers retained their top receiving trio from last year in Williams, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer, but it may be impossible to keep Johnston off the field. He should be a great fit with the rocket-armed Herbert.

Hall of Fame wideout Andre Reed is a fan, too.

Johnston could also be the next man up if Williams or Allen miss time due to injury. That duo missed a combined 11 games last year, which provided opportunities for Palmer, who finished the year second on the team in both receptions (72) and receiving yards (769).

Regardless, Johnston should get his chances in what may be a high-powered Chargers offense. The 6'3" wideout was a standout for the national finalist Horned Frogs last season, finishing with 60 receptions for 1,069 yards and six scores. He helped carry TCU's offense despite clearly being the focal point in the passing game.

All eyes can't be on Johnston with Allen and Williams on the field, so he could get high-quality chances to make plays in L.A.

Johnston might be the Chargers' WR1 as soon as 2025. Allen and Williams' contracts are both up after 2024, giving him a pathway for a consistent starting job in two years at most. That would make him a bona fide WR1 option and a great pick in dynasty leagues.