2023 NFL Draft: 6 Shocking Picks That Might Happen in 1st Round
One of the beauties of the NFL draft is that evaluating prospects is an ambiguous process. Scouts, general managers, analysts and fans can all watch the same player and have a different perspective, leading to various grades and big boards that are dramatically different from one another. That's how the draft keeps us on our toes, and there ends up being at least one surprise pick every year.
Whether it's Cole Strange going in the first round to the New England Patriots while Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay reveals they thought Strange would be available in the fourth round, or Al Davis trusting his height, weight, speed method with Darrius Heyward-Bey back in 2009, there's a Day 1 selection that raises some eyebrows every year.
In the 2023 class, there aren't a ton of slam-dunk prospects, as only four players on Bleacher Report's big board have a top-10 grade and only 21 have first-round grades. That means we should be in for at least one surprise on Thursday night and might be in store for a few when it's all said and done.
Here, we'll attempt to predict a few shocking picks that could happen in the first round by reading the tea leaves and looking into the draft rumors that have been circulating over the last few weeks.
Tyree Wilson 1st Non-Quarterback Taken
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All signs are pointing toward Alabama quarterback Bryce Young being the No. 1 overall pick, as DraftKings has Young as the heavy favorite to be the first player off the board with -1600 odds (bet $1,600 to win $100). If that happens, don't be surprised if the Houston Texans, who draft second, end up going with a defensive player as NFL Media's Lance Zierlein has suggested.
Zierlein, who hosts a radio show in Houston and is plugged into the Texans, released a mock draft at the beginning of the month that covered this exact scenario where the Carolina Panthers select Young. The draft analyst then sent Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson to H-Town instead of another former member of the Crimson Tide, Will Anderson Jr.
While Anderson would likely be the favorite as the No. 2 pick and is the top player on most big boards, including B/R's, Wilson has size and length that simply cannot be taught. At nearly 6'6" with 35⅜-inch arms, the Red Raider has physical gifts that make him almost impossible to block.
Both Wilson and Anderson can be physically dominant at the point of attack, but the former has reps where his length is simply too much for opposing offensive tackles. Anderson isn't undersized by any means at 6'3½" with 33⅞-inch arms, but the unparalleled length of Wilson could give him a higher ceiling as a pro in the eyes of talent evaluators.
Only 2 Quarterbacks Go Top 5
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Earlier in April, there was a legitimate case to be made that the first four picks of the draft would be quarterbacks. Young and C.J. Stroud have both topped mock drafts for several months, while Florida's Anthony Richardson has picked up steam all year, especially after the combine, and Will Levis from Kentucky has also generated some top-five buzz.
However, building off the last scenario, if the Panthers take Young and the Texans go with a defensive player, there's a good chance only two signal-callers end up hearing their names called in the first five picks of the draft.
The Arizona Cardinals, owners of the third selection overall, are set under center with Kyler Murray, and while they could trade out of their draft slot, they could also use a premium defensive lineman, so they may want to stay put, especially if Anderson is available.
Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter could also be in play for Arizona, as well as the aforementioned Wilson, if available. Even if the Cardinals do trade out of No. 3, they might only move one spot backward by striking a deal with the Indianapolis Colts.
That leaves the Seattle Seahawks as the last team in the top five, and while Seattle isn't immune to drafting a quarterback, it did sign Geno Smith to a new three-year, $75 million contract this offseason, so the position isn't a pressing need.
Long story short, if the Texans pass on a quarterback, there's a good chance of Richardson and Levis sliding out of the top five.
Keion White Gets Drafted on Day 1
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When the NFL announced which prospects will be attending the first round of the draft, many people had a "one of these things is not like the other" moment in regard to Georgia Tech edge-defender Keion White.
White is widely considered a second-rounder, ranking 36th overall on B/R's big board and 46th on Pro Football Network's Arif Hasan's draft industry consensus board, so the public eyebrow-raising was justified. However, his presence in the green room could signal that he'll come off the board sooner than most people expect.
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Media is one of the most plugged-in draft analysts in the industry and has the former Yellow Jacket ranked 28th overall in his latest top 50 rankings, only five spots behind Clemson's Myles Murphy, who seems like a sure-fire first-round pick. Jeremiah has even slated White ahead of Murphy earlier in the predraft process.
The intrigue surrounding the Georgia Tech product within the league makes sense, too. At nearly 6'5" and 285 pounds, he has great size and couples that with impressive athleticism, earning a 9.92 RAS score as a defensive tackle and 9.55 as a defensive end. That blend of measurables gives him some position versatility that will pique the interest of NFL decision-makers.
Per his B/R scouting report, White does need to work on his technique, but that can be chalked up to a lack of experience playing on the defensive line. Originally, he was a tight end at Old Dominion before switching positions and transferring to Georgia Tech. Then, he opted out of the 2020 season because of COVID-19 and missed the majority of the following campaign with an injury.
This past season was really the only year White faced high-end competition and got to hone his skills as a defensive lineman. That could give him a higher ceiling in the NFL, and his athleticism warrants a late-first-round selection.
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3 Tight Ends Come Off the Board
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This hasn't happened since 2017 when O.J. Howard, Evan Engram and David Njoku were taken within 10 picks of each other, as it can be difficult to find someone big enough to block at the NFL level and still athletic enough to make plays as a receiver. That's why you see so many former basketball players/projects at tight end in the league.
However, this year's class is different. There's plenty of talent at the position, and as a whole, it's widely considered one of the deepest groups in the draft.
Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (fifth overall), Darnell Washington from Georgia (26th) and Dalton Kincaid out of Utah (28th) all rank within the top 28 prospects on B/R's big board and could easily be first-round selections. Also, several teams that hold mid- to late-first-round picks are expected to be in the market for a tight end.
The Green Bay Packers (15th) lost Robert Tonyan in free agency and could add an extra first-round pick by trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets (13th). The Los Angeles Chargers (21st) have a need for the position and have been tied to Kincaid in a few mock drafts. Also, the Dallas Cowboys (26th) are searching for Dalton Schultz's replacement.
Even at the bottom of the first round, a case could be made that the Cincinnati Bengals (28th), New Orleans Saints (29th) and Kansas City Chiefs (31st) could use a tight end. In other words, this year's tight end market in the draft could be a situation where the supply meets the demand.
Packers Take a Wide Receiver
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This may not seem like much of a surprise, but the Green Bay Packers haven't drafted a wide receiver in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. In fact, they've only taken a wideout on Day 1 of the draft five times in franchise history, so doing that on Thursday would almost qualify as a monumental moment in league history.
Now, the Packers do have a couple of young receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who are growing and looking to take big steps forward in year two. But they're also the team's top wideouts, and expecting both of them to stay on schedule with their development isn't a wise strategy while breaking in new starting quarterback Jordan Love.
Especially with Tonyan no longer in the mix, Green Bay needs to give Love all the help it can, and adding a premium pass-catcher in the first round is a great way to do that. Plus, if Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba is available with the 15th pick (or maybe 13th...), then he could complement Watson and Doubs well to form a nice, young receiving trio.
Watson and Doubs are more of the outside wide receiver type, while Smith-Njigba projects best in the slot, at least initially in the NFL. In a way, the former Buckeye and Love could be the 2.0 version of Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb.
Bears Still End Up with Jalen Carter
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Before the Chicago Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers, a lot of mock drafts had Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter landing in the Windy City. That pairing made a lot of sense because Carter is arguably the most talented player in this draft class and Chicago needs a lot of help defensively, especially at defensive tackle.
Then the NFL Scouting Combine happened, which simultaneously changed everything while changing nothing.
The beginning of March was when Carter's perceived slide down draft boards began, as he was charged with two misdemeanors for racing and reckless driving before the fatal January car crash that killed Georgia football player Devin Willock and staffer Chandler LeCroy. He reached a plea deal and will not serve any jail time.
Shortly thereafter was his infamous pro day where he showed up out of shape and couldn't finish all of the drills.
Around the same time, the Bears swapped the first pick of the draft with the Panthers for the ninth selection and a handful of other assets. Before Carter's misdemeanor charges surfaced and his poor workout, that likely would have taken Chicago out of the mix for the former Bulldog. However, his stock has fallen so much now that the pairing is back on the table.
This would be a dream scenario for the Bears. They'd end up netting a first-round pick, two second-rounders and wide receiver D.J. Moore for the No. 1 overall pick, and end up drafting the same player they likely would have taken anyway, just eight picks later.
They'll also end up saving about $17.4 million on Carter's contract, as that's what Over The Cap projects as the difference in total contract value between the first and ninth overall selections this year. Not a bad swindle for Chicago if it all comes to fruition.
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