Probability Meter for Biggest Potential 1st-Round Mistakes in 2023 NFL Draft
Sometimes, it doesn't take long for NFL teams to realize a massive draft-day mistake. Consequently, general managers may lose their jobs. Inevitably, we're going to see some mind-blowing gaffs on April 27.
Over the past couple of weeks, we've been bombarded with draft rumors. Though some of the buzz will turn out to be a smokescreen, NFL insiders have good sources who can provide an idea of how a team might approach the selection process.
Based on roster needs and draft trends, we can also draw conclusions about which prospects and positions each club may target on Day 1, but teams will surprise us in a bad way.
As a forewarning, we've compiled eight potential first-round mistakes that teams could make and provided a probability meter that ranges from one—an unlikely scenario—to 10—a highly probable outcome.
Texans Pass on QB C.J. Stroud at No. 2
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ESPN's Adam Schefter (h/t Bleacher Report's Joseph Zucker) believes that the Carolina Panthers will select quarterback Bryce Young with the first pick.
If Schefter is correct, the Houston Texans would have a chance to take a potential franchise quarterback at No. 2, but the NFL insider pumped the brakes on that idea via Bleacher Report's Francisco Rosa.
"We don't know that the Houston Texans, despite conventional wisdom, are going quarterback at two. In fact, there seems to be increasing speculation that the Texans won't go quarterback at two. That they'll go with the highest-rated defensive player on their board in this draft ... The thinking around the league is they don't seem particularly sold on going quarterback at two."
Remember, the Texans hired former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans this offseason. Because of his coaching background, he may favor a blue-chip defender if the team has a lukewarm feeling about C.J. Stroud, who's widely regarded as one of the top two quarterbacks in this year's draft.
Houston would make a big mistake passing on Stroud, who's an accurate pocket-passing quarterback who throws with great anticipation and poise under center. He's an NFL-ready signal-caller who can help the Texans compete in a mediocre AFC South division.
The Texans can make matters even worse if they pass on Stroud and Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. as NBC's Peter King suggested in a recent column.
"I will not be surprised if, in the Edge category, Tyree Wilson is picked ahead of Will Anderson," King wrote. "I particularly will not be surprised if Houston—whether at two or through a trade-down if the Texans don't take a quarterback—takes Wilson over Anderson."
Houston, we have a problem.
General manager Nick Caserio and Ryans shouldn't get cute with the second pick. The Texans should take Stroud to replace Davis Mills; if they choose Wilson over Anderson, who racked up 34.5 sacks in three collegiate terms, Caserio could lose his job in a year or two.
Probability Meter: 4 (to pass on Stroud), 1 (to pass on Anderson)
Cardinals Take DL Tyree Wilson Rather Than Trade the No. 3 Overall Pick
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Let's say the Houston Texans make the mistake of taking Will Anderson Jr. over C.J. Stroud, and quarterback-needy teams call the Arizona Cardinals for the No. 3 overall pick.
New Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort should take the best offer available instead of staying pat to select Tyree Wilson.
The Cardinals should compile draft picks to transform their roster. Head coach Jonathan Gannon's staff will need players to fit its system on both sides of the ball.
The Cardinals would have two additional roster voids if they trade or cut wideout DeAndre Hopkins and fulfill safety Budda Baker's trade request (h/t ESPN's Adam Schefter).
For now, Arizona should address holes at cornerback, edge-rusher and on the interior of its offensive and defensive lines.
Though Wilson would fill a need, the Cardinals can do so much more with additional picks in the next two drafts. Teams may be willing to pay a premium for a move up to the third spot. If that's the case, Arizona can acquire Day 2 picks this year and likely a 2024 first-rounder.
Wilson could develop into a high-end playmaker, but the Cardinals need to think long-term in their attempt to rebuild a roster coming off a 4-13 season.
Probability Meter: 6
Colts Pass on Anthony Richardson for Will Levis
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Barring a move up, the Indianapolis Colts will wait to see which quarterbacks fall to them at No. 4. Bryce Young and C.J Stroud may be off the board, leaving the front office with a decision between Will Levis and Anthony Richardson.
Fox Sports' Peter Schrager appeared on NFL Network's Good Morning Football and said he's heard whispers that the Colts would take Levis.
"I put my mock draft out on Tuesday, and the biggest feedback I've gotten from around the league is...don't sleep on Will Levis and the Colts."
According to Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson, who appeared on 102.5 The Game's Robby & Rexrode, Levis' decision-making has raised concerns with teams around the league. (starts at 17:10):
"Here's what I can tell you about Levis: when you talk to teams, unquestionably they love his skill set. I think most everybody agrees that he has the best arm in the draft. But I think ultimately they're like, 'Look, there is a decision-making aspect of this that we can't get away from, and it's not like we're looking at film and he's playing with a team that is completely devoid of NFL talent…He's definitely playing against a lot of NFL talent, and he's making bad decisions pretty consistently.'"
While Richardson's poor completion rate (54.7 percent) at Florida doesn't look good on paper, he only started in a full-time role for one term and showed improvement late in 2022. Last year, the former Gators signal-caller threw for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first eight contests and then threw for 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his final four outings.
This offseason, Indianapolis hired head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts into a 2022 MVP candidate. Like Hurts, Richardson is a dynamic signal-caller who can add another layer to the run game in a RPO-friendly offensive system. The Florida product ran for 1,116 yards and 12 touchdowns as a collegian.
Probability Meter: 8
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Raiders Select OL Peter Skoronski at No. 7
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In 2022, the Las Vegas Raiders finished with the 26th-ranked scoring defense and gave up the fifth-most yards. Yet they didn't address that side of the ball with surefire starting-caliber additions in free agency.
Among the Raiders' signings on defense, they inked safety Marcus Epps, defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and cornerback Brandon Facyson to multiyear contracts, per Spotrac. None of them have extensive starting experience in big roles though.
Las Vegas is overdue for a defensive overhaul, and the front office went with a conservative approach in free agency, which puts a lot of pressure on the scouting department to hit on multiple picks on every level of that unit.
Unless the Raiders trade up for a top quarterback or their ideal prospect at the position falls to them at No. 7, they must take the top defensive player on the board.
ESPN's Jordan Reid offered a counterpoint that Las Vegas would get great value with Peter Skoronski.
"The Raiders could go a lot of different directions with this pick, but if you want value, Skoronski at No. 7 overall is pretty good," Reid wrote. "He's capable of playing all five positions up front and could quickly become a key part of the protection for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo."
While Reid makes a fair point about shoring up the offensive line for an oft-injured quarterback in Garoppolo, the Raiders have solid tackles in Kolton Miller and Jermaine Eluemunor, who gave up just three sacks last year, per Pro Football Focus. Even if Skoronski moves inside, a guard in the top 10 doesn't quite move the needle in terms of value.
The Raiders have a laundry list of needs on defense, which include an interior defensive lineman, a third edge-rusher to spell 33-year-old Chandler Jones, a couple of linebackers, a lead cornerback and a safety. Despite holding 12 selections, Vegas won't be able to fill all those voids with one draft class.
General manager Dave Ziegler must start with the defense. He can add competition for Eluemunor or find an upgrade at guard with one of his three Day 2 picks.
Probability Meter: 2
QB Hendon Hooker Is Drafted in the 1st Round
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Hendon Hooker has the wild-card appeal among quarterbacks in the upcoming draft, and a team may take him on Day 1, but the Tennessee product should be a Day 2 option.
After transferring from Virginia Tech to Tennessee, Hooker flourished with the Volunteers, throwing for 58 touchdowns and five interceptions with a 68.8 percent completion rate over the last two years. He had a case for the 2022 Heisman Trophy Award before tearing his ACL in November.
However, teams should be skeptical about Hooker's transition to the pro level. He played in a system that didn't require him to read the full field or go through his progressions with consistency.
Bleacher Report's Derrik Klassen doesn't see aspects of Tennessee's offense on the pro level.
"Tennessee's offense made great use of the wide hashes and wide splits that can only be accessed at the college level. Those do not exist the same way in the NFL. Hooker will have to adjust greatly to a real passing offense."
Hooker may take more time on his learning curve than the top quarterbacks in the class. He also has ball-security issues. According to Team Rankings, Hooker fumbled 15 times (lost seven) in two terms at Tennessee.
Yet according to NFL Network's James Palmer, "plenty of teams" have Hooker ranked as the third-best quarterback in this group.
If a team picks Hooker in the first round, it can take advantage of the fifth-year option to allow him ample time to develop, but he's a 25-year-old quarterback coming off a serious knee injury and may have to make up a lot of ground in a pro-style offense.
Probability Meter: 9
Packers Don't Take a Pass-Catcher in the 1st Round
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With quarterback Aaron Rodgers likely on his way to the New York Jets, the Green Bay Packers must surround Love with more quality pass-catchers.
In free agency, Green Bay lost wide receiver Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan to the Jets and Chicago Bears, respectively. Savvy veteran wideout Randall Cobb could join Rodgers, his longtime teammate and friend, in New York, which leaves Love with wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs as his top projected perimeter pass-catchers.
Watson broke out in the second half of the 2022 season, racking up at least 104 receiving yards in three games and scoring all of his touchdowns after Week 9. From the preseason through the regular season, Doubs had some tantalizing catches and head-scratching drops. He finished the campaign with 42 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns with nine drops.
The Packers haven't selected a wide receiver or tight end in the first round since they took Javon Walker with the 20th overall pick in 2002. The front office should break that 21-year streak to aid Love, who's only thrown 83 regular-season passes.
Green Bay should take wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba if he's available. He had an outstanding 2021 term, hauling in 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns but only played three games in 2022 because of a hamstring injury.
The Packers can also look to replace Tonyan if Michael Mayer is available. Over his last two years at Notre Dame, he caught 138 passes for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns. Mayer showed a level of consistency that can translate to the pro level, which would bode well for Love as he looks for a reliable target other than Watson.
While a pass-catcher makes sense for the Packers at No. 15, The Athletic's Matt Schneidman highlighted needs at safety and edge-rusher. ESPN's draft-day predictor listed Smith-Njigba as the only perimeter pass-catcher among the top 10 prospects with the best chance to go to Green Bay at No. 15.
Based on the Packers' draft history, no one should be surprised if they took a defensive player in the first round, though that would be the wrong move with a young signal-caller in a crucial prove-it year.
Probability Meter: 9
Commanders Pass on Top QB Prospects
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You would think Sam Howell won several games in his 2022 rookie campaign or showed a lot of promise in limited action because the Washington Commanders have high hopes for him.
According to ESPN's John Keim, the Commanders don't have much of an appetite for a move up to select a quarterback with Howell primed to lead the huddle in 2023.
"They believe in quarterback Sam Howell enough that it's unlikely they will trade up for a quarterback, especially not into the top 10. It's also unlikely they'll draft a quarterback in the first round, unless a top guy unexpectedly falls into their lap. The Commanders like Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), though, and if he's sitting there in the second or third round, I could see them drafting him. They are reluctant to relinquish a lot of draft capital and would rather use that to build out the roster around Howell.
Washington selected Howell in the fifth round of the 2022 draft. He completed 11 out of 19 passes for 169 yards, a touchdown and an interception in one start this past season. Though Howell must beat journeyman veteran signal-caller Jacoby Brissett to claim the starting job, he seems like the front-runner for the position.
Even so, the Commanders should keep their quarterback options open headed into the draft. Keim wrote that they would take "a top guy" if one falls, but we don't know who the team has atop its big board.
Washington should take a swing with either Anthony Richardson or Will Levis if one of them falls in the first round. Both have enough upside to beat Howell and Brissett for the lead job.
Probability Meter: 3
Allowing RB Bijan Robinson to Fall in the Cowboys' Lap at No. 26
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NFL team executives have expressed how they feel about running back market, and it's not good.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and New York Giants ball-carrier Saquon Barkley haven't signed their franchise tags. Neither player seems close to locking in a long-term deal with their respective teams.
Miles Sanders signed the biggest deal among running backs, inking a four-year, $25.4 million deal with the Carolina Panthers after racking up a career-high 1,347 scrimmage yards in 2022. Among running backs, he's 12th in average annual salary, per Over the Cap.
Teams likely prefer a high-end running back on a cheap or rookie deal.
According to The Athletic's Jon Machota, the Dallas Cowboys would be "absolutely thrilled" if Bijan Robinson is available while they're on the clock with the 26th pick.
In Dallas, Robinson could make an immediate impact while Tony Pollard recovers from offseason surgery.
In the 2016 draft, the Cowboys struck gold with running back Ezekiel Elliott, who's a two-time rushing champion, three-time Pro Bowler and All-Pro. After releasing him in March, the Cowboys could reload with Robinson, who has Pro Bowl potential in a three-down role.
Because running backs have such a low market value with short career lives, Robinson could fall to the back end of the first round. If that happens, teams like the Los Angeles Chargers (No. 21), Minnesota Vikings (No. 23) and Giants (No. 25) should take him outside of the top 20.
Robinson is a high-end prospect who would allow those teams to part ways with high-paid or unhappy running backs. At No. 26, he could be the best value pick in the draft.
Probability Meter: 1
College football statistics are provided by cfbstats.com unless otherwise noted.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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