Identifying the Biggest Steal in Each of the Past 10 NFL Drafts
We're less than one week away from the 2023 NFL Draft in Kansas City—three days where the lifelong dreams of hundreds of players will come true when they are drafted into the NFL.
But the players aren't the only folks with dreams. Teams and general managers have them, too. Dreams of landing an impact player. Dreams of finding the guy who make an also-ran a contender or put a contender over the top.
Dreams of hitting on selections that will change the franchise's trajectory for years to come.
They dream of finding an MVP quarterback late in Round 1. Or of finding a signal-caller on Day 2 who can lead them to a Super Bowl. They dream of getting defense-changing picks on the edge or at cornerback at a massive value. They dream of landing one of the top five wide receivers in a class—after 15 wideouts are off the board.
Players dream of being drafted. Teams dream of selecting the biggest steal in the draft.
Of landing players just like these.
Author's Note: Although any player was eligible for consideration here, the earlier the pick the harder it becomes to call it that draft's biggest steal.
As it turns out, the earliest draft position for a player selected was 30th.
2013: Travis Kelce (No. 63 Overall)
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The 2013 draft isn't known for being chock-full of talent—especially at the top. Although he was a solid pro, if the Kansas City Chiefs had it to do over again, offensive tackle Eric Fisher wouldn't have been the first overall pick.
But there were some values, nonetheless.
David Bakhtiari (No. 109) has been mainstay on the offensive line for the Green Bay Packers for the past decade. It took a little while, but Jordan Poyer (No. 218) eventually became one of the better safeties in the league with the Buffalo Bills.
Those may have been bargains, but the same Chiefs team that picked Fisher first overall got the biggest steal.
Coming out of the University of Cincinnati, Travis Kelce wasn't considered by most to be the best tight end in his class. In the decade since, he has become one of the greatest to ever play the game at the position.
A knee injury all but wiped out Kelce's rookie season, but by his second year he was playing a major role in Kansas City's offense. In each of the past nine seasons, Kelce has amassed at least 850 receiving yards. In each of the past seven seasons, Kelce has topped 1,000 yards. He has double-digit touchdowns four times, eight Pro Bowl nods and has been named a first-team All-Pro four times.
Kelce is fourth all-time among tight ends in receiving yards, sixth in touchdowns and fourth in receptions.
Not bad for a third-round pick.
2014: Davante Adams (No. 53 Overall)
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The Green Bay Packers have caught a lot of flak in recent years for failing to address the wide receiver position, although 2022 second-round pick Christian Watson showed some flashes as a rookie.
If Watson becomes half the receiver that another second-round wideout Green Bay selected in 2014 is, then the Packers will have another steal on their hands at the position.
It took Davante Adams until his fifth season to crack 1,000 yards. But once Adams took off, he took off. In the five seasons since that 2018 explosion, Adams has eclipsed 1,300 receiving yards four times. He has scored 10 or more touchdowns four times (and six overall). Adams has caught at least 100 passes in four of the last five years (and in each of the past three seasons). And Adams has been a Pro Bowler in each of the last six years and a first-team All-Pro the last three.
Arif Hasan of Pro Football Network ranked Adams as the fifth-best wideout in the league.
"We know that Adams is at his best when winning off the release against one-on-one coverage, whether that's to take a slant to the house or win deep," Hasan said. "Adams' capacity for middle-of-the-field catches and play in space is elite but not quite to the level of the receivers above him. Of course, he makes up for it by being deadlier in the red zone than any of them. Adams is a touchdown machine, and it doesn't matter who's throwing him the ball."
Adams isn't catching passes for the Packers anymore, but he's still arguably the franchise's best pick of the past decade.
2015: Stefon Diggs (No. 146 Overall)
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It's not all that often that a writer gets to say, "I called that one."
But in 2015, a certain scribe here at Bleacher Report wrote a column that was titled, "Why Maryland's Stefon Diggs Could Be the Biggest WR Steal of the 2015 NFL Draft."
That sound you hear is me patting myself on the back.
Diggs was a highly touted recruit who never lived up to the billing in college. But as ESPN's Mel Kiper told Roman Stubbs of the Washington Post at the time, the potential was there.
"Diggs has got great upside," Kiper said. "I thought another year would have really helped him, but you can't dispute the talent. Stefon Diggs is a big-time talent. If you get him in the third, fourth round, you have got yourself a kid that's got an awful lot of ability. For today's NFL, he's ideal."
Diggs fell even more than Kiper predicted before being selected in the fifth round by the Minnesota Vikings. And by his second season, it was clear that Minnesota had something.
It's the last five years when Diggs has truly erupted. In each of the last five campaigns, Diggs has hit the 1,000-yard mark. In four of those seasons, he caught 100 passes. In all three of his seasons as a member of the Buffalo Bills, Diggs has posted at least 103 receptions, 1,200 yards and eight scores. He has made the Pro Bowl in all three of those years.
Diggs is easily a top-10 receiver and quite possibly top-five.
Getting that kind of talent outside the top 140 picks is the definition of a steal.
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2016: Dak Prescott (No. 135 Overall)
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The 2016 draft had its share of Day 3 gems. In fact, it had its share and a few drafts' more. Tyreek Hill (No. 165) has become one of the best wide receivers in the game. Matthew Judon (No. 146) has piled up 43.5 sacks over the past four seasons, making the Pro Bowl every year over that stretch.
But as great as Hill and Judon have been to this point in their respective careers, they don't play quarterback. Getting a Pro Bowl quarterback on the draft's third day is the equivalent of finding a winning Powerball ticket on the street.
That's exactly what the Dallas Cowboys did.
Rayne Dakota Prescott (no, really—that's his name) was tossed into the deep end as a rookie after Tony Romo hurt his back. Rather than shrink from the harshest of spotlights, Prescott thrived—he completed almost 68 percent of his passes for 3,667 yards and 23 touchdowns with just four interceptions on the way to being named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
All told, Prescott has completed two-thirds of his passes, thrown for just under 25,000 yards, tossed 101 more touchdowns than interceptions and gone 61-36 in the regular season as starter.
Prescott's 2022 season admittedly wasn't his best work—he set an NFL record by tying for the league lead in interceptions despite missing five games. But as recently as two years ago Prescott topped 4,400 passing yards with 37 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions.
By most estimations, Prescott is a top-10 signal-caller.
Getting a quarterback that good that late in the draft is every NFL team's dream.
2017: T.J. Watt (No. 30 Overall)
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OK, before folks gather up the pitchforks and torches and head to Twitter to roast me for daring to not list Patrick Mahomes here, hear me out.
Yes, Mahomes is a fantastic quarterback. An all-time talent at the position. Trading up to land him in 2017 was a franchise-defining moment for the Kansas City Chiefs. But the Chiefs traded into the top 10 to get him and used their first-rounder in 2018 to do it.
Mahomes was absolutely a steal. But he wasn't the biggest of that draft—because all the Pittsburgh Steelers had to do was be patient to land a potential all-time talent on the other side of the ball.
T.J. Watt wasn't the first edge-rusher drafted in 2017. Or the second. Or the third. But while players like Myles Garrett and Haason Reddick have gone on to have excellent careers so far, none have wreaked as much havoc as Watt.
By his second pro season, it was apparent that the Steelers had hit the jackpot late in Round 1—again. For four straight years from 2018 to 2021, Watt posted at least 13 sacks. In 2021, he tied the single-season sack record with 22.5 and won his first Defensive Player of the Year Award.
With the exception of maybe Aaron Donald, there isn't another defensive player in the league who strikes more fear into the hearts of opposing quarterbacks than Watt.
And there have been 25-plus teams who have been kicking themselves for years for failing to see that.
2018: Lamar Jackson (No. 32 Overall)
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This one was a tough call.
It was awfully tempting to include Orlando Brown Jr. here. Since being drafted 83rd overall by the Baltimore Ravens in 2018, Brown has become one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. Brown has made it to the Pro Bowl after each of the last four seasons and won a Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs.
But regardless of the uncertainty surrounding his immediate future, it's awfully hard to view anyone other than Lamar Jackson as the biggest steal of that year's draft.
Mind you, Jackson wasn't the first quarterback taken that year—that was Baker Mayfield. He wasn't the second—that would be Sam Darnold. He wasn't the third—that was Josh Allen. And he wasn't the fourth—that was Josh Rosen.
That three of those four quarterbacks wound up being massive busts isn't a good look for the teams who drafted them—especially given what Jackson has accomplished after the Ravens moved up to make him the final pick of Round 1.
In Jackson's second season, he broke the NFL record for rushing yards in a season, led the league with 36 touchdown passes and was named the NFL's Most Valuable Player. The following season, he became the first quarterback in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons.
Yes, Jackson's passing numbers have dipped in the past two years. Yes, he has missed time with injuries. But having actual NFL-caliber receivers would help with the former, and when he's healthy there's no denying that Jackson is one of the most difficult players in the league to defend.
2019: Maxx Crosby (No. 106 Overall)
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The Las Vegas Raiders had a rough 2022 season, but the team's failings can't be laid at the feet of edge-rusher Maxx Crosby.
Last year, Crosby set a career high with 12.5 sacks and piled up a staggering 89 total tackles. As Jonathan Macri wrote for Pro Football Focus, Crosby finished his fourth season as that site's fourth-highest-graded edge-rusher.
"Crosby was the only defensive lineman in the NFL who played more than 1,000 defensive snaps in 2022, and he did so at an incredibly high level, earning a 90.0-plus overall grade for the second consecutive season," he said. "Crosby dominated as a pass-rusher, with 12.5 sacks (tied for eighth) and 81 pressures (third), and did the same against the run, with an 82.5 run-defense grade that ranked third among qualifying edge defenders. As a result, Crosby generated more wins above replacement (0.62) than any other player at his position."
Last season marked the second time that Crosby has been named to the Pro Bowl, but he's been consistently productive as a pro. Including a surprising 10-sack rookie season, Crosby has logged at least seven sacks in all four of his NFL campaigns. As that stratospheric tackle total from last year also shows, Crosby has become a force in run defense as well.
Mind you, Crosby has done that damage in the NFL despite seeing double-teams with regularity. For a Raiders franchise that has missed more than they've hit in recent drafts, Crosby is arguably the team's best pick in the last five years.
In fact, go ahead and remove "arguably."
2020: Jalen Hurts (No. 53 Overall)
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The 2020 NFL draft was a goldmine for quarterbacks—whether it's Joe Burrow (No. 1), Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5) or Justin Herbert (No. 6), a number of young signal-callers have shown at least flashes of being high-end starters. Two have even started the Super Bowl.
The biggest steal of the 2020 draft is the last of those quarterbacks taken—and the first to hit the jackpot with a massive extension.
Mind you, Jalen Hurts earned his five-year, $255 million contract—a deal that includes $110 million fully guaranteed at signing. In leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl last year, Hurts completed 66.5 percent of his passes for just over 3,700 yards and 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also added 760 yards and a whopping 13 touchdowns on the ground.
It was the culmination of quite the saga for Hurts, who went from starter at Alabama to benched in favor of Tua Tagovailoa to transferring to Oklahoma to second-round pick of the Eagles to embattled starter entering his third season.
That's right—heading into 2022 there was more than a little doubt about Hurts' long-term prospects in Philly. Hurts erased those doubts in emphatic fashion, and now the Eagles have committed to him as the face of the franchise.
Of course, last year's success and the massive contract that resulted from it have ratcheted up expectations for Hurts exponentially. But lofty expectations have followed Hurts dating all the way back to his time with the Crimson Tide.
And if last season was any indication, he's up to the challenge.
2021: Amon-Ra St. Brown (No. 112 Overall)
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Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn't the first wide receiver drafted in 2021. Or the third. Or the fifth. Or the eight. Or the 10th. Or the 12th. Or even the 15th.
No, St. Brown was the 17th wideout taken in the draft that year. And as Tim Twentyman of the Lions website reported last year, he isn't about to forget it.
"It was definitely one of the moments in my life I won't forget," St. Brown said. "That feeling that I had. Day 1 went by, I wasn't expecting to get drafted. Day 2, I was expecting to maybe hear my name, and seeing so many receivers go before me, that feeling that I had inside, I can't even explain it. It was gut-wrenching. It does motivate me. Every time I'm doing something well, people are patting my back, I just think of those 16 that went before me and how I felt. That just keeps me going."
St. Brown may not have entered the NFL with the hype of a Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle. And you can make a case that all three of those players are better receivers. But the rest of the long list of guys taken before St. Brown?
Good luck making that case.
As a rookie, St. Brown set a Lions franchise record with 90 catches and topped 900 receiving yards. In his sophomore season, St. Brown turned things up another notch—106 catches, 1,106 yards and half a dozen scores.
Simply put, St. Brown has been an impact player from the moment he stepped on an NFL field.
Getting a guy like that with the 112th pick is huge for a Lions team trying to reverse decades of losing.
2022: Tariq Woolen (No. 153 Overall)
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Some will no doubt wonder why Brock Purdy isn't included here. To be clear, Purdy's story is amazing—going from being "Mr. Irrelevant" in the 2022 draft to starting for the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game is a Hollywood movie waiting to happen. If he can rebound from the elbow injury suffered in that game, starts for the Niners again in 2023 and has anywhere near the success he did as a rookie, then in next year's iterations of columns like this one he may well claim this spot.
But for now, Tariq Woolen gets the nod.
There was never any doubt that Woolen had the physical tools, whether it was his lanky 6'4" frame or his blazing 4.26-second speed. But after playing collegiately at UTSA, there were doubts about how those tools would translate to the pros.
The Seahawks took a flier on Woolen in the fifth round—and hit it big. As a rookie, Woolen tied for the league lead with six interceptions. He allowed just 51.5 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed and posted a fantastic passer rating against of 48.7.
Fellow cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner brought home Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, but former Seahawks great Richard Sherman told ESPN's Brady Henderson that he has been blown away by what Woolen has accomplished in a short time.
"He's been outstanding," Sherman said. "He's been freaking phenomenal."
Given the cost Seattle paid relative to the Jets (who took Gardner fourth overall), Woolen was the obvious pick among defensive players.
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